The Use of Delphi-Fuzzy and Fuzzy-DEMATEL Approach to Identify and Evaluate Effective Factors on Credit Risk of Real Bank Melli Customers in Iran

Subject Areas : Financial engineering

Masoud  Rezaei Aghmashhadi ¹ (Department of Financial Engineering, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran.)
Gholamreza  Mahfoozi ² (Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Gilan University, Rasht, Iran)
Farzad  Rahimzadeh ³ (Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Gilan University, Rasht, Iran)

Received: 2021-10-06 Accepted : 2021-10-30 Published : 2022-06-22

Keywords: Credit Risk, Real customers, Delphi-fuzzy approach, Fuzzy -DEMATEL technique,

Abstract :

Today, some systems such as credit scoring and credit customer rating have been developed to validate customers. The present study is aimed to identify and evaluate the effective factors on the credit risk of real customers of Bank Melli in Iran using Delphi-Fuzzy and Fuzzy -DEMATEL approaches. This research is exploratory in terms of purpose and is descriptive and survey in terms of data collection and analysis. The validity and reliability of the research measure were verified statistically using 20 experts related to the research topic, which was in the form of a questionnaire. A total of 60 factors were identified in 4 main dimensions including personal factors, environmental, behavioral and social factors, credit factors and macroeconomic factors. Later, the model was evaluated, and by re-interviewing the experts through the Delphi-fuzzy technique, 55 factors were finally confirmed. Then, the dimensions and indicators of customers' credit risk were ranked, which was done through the fuzzy- DEMATEL technique. The results of research indicators showed that among the indicators, income index had the highest effect and collateral index had the most impact. Also, among the main dimensions, the personal factor had the highest impact among the factors.