The likely Effect of Precipitation Change on Runoff, Case Study: Jajrood River

Subject Areas : Urban and Regional Planning Studies

alireza shakiba ¹ , batol bahak ² , zari monavarian ³

1 - استادیار، گروه GIS و سنجش از راه دور، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2 - استادیار ، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شهرری
3 - کارشناس ارشد، اقلیم شناسی در برنامه ریزی محیطی

Received: 2008-04-25 Accepted : 2009-03-15 Published : 2009-02-19

Keywords: Regression, Climate Change, rainfall, statistical methods, runoff, Jajrood,

Abstract :

One of the likely effects of climate change is to study the effect of rainfall variations in runoff values Accordingly, in this research catchment namely Jajrood was selected. First, rainfall and runoff data using homogenity test was studied. Then, a statistical period was chosen . To study the data distribution, many statistical indices such as mean, variance, standard diviation,…were calculated. Wet and dry periods was extracted based on a moving average method . Finally order in make a significant correlation between rainfall and runoff , the correlation coefficient and regression equation were calculated. The result of the research showed that there could be a some periods of dry and wet in the study area , with more lasting dry period. The result also indicated that there is a rather significant correlation between rainfall and runoff . The correlation coefficient and R2 for Jajrood catchment are 0.8389 & 0.7039 respectively.