تحلیل لجیستیک برخی عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع جفت ماندگی در یک گله گاو هلشتاین

Subject Areas : Camel

ف. بحری بیناباج ¹ , ه. فرهنگ فر ² , س. عزیزیان ³ , م. جعفری ⁴ , ک. حسن‌پور ⁵

1 - Department of Animal Science,Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Gonbad Kavoos, Gonbad Kavoos, Iran
2 - Department of Animal Science,Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
3 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
4 - Agriculture Jihad Organization of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
5 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agricultural Science, Fredowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Received: 2012-12-27 Accepted : 2013-03-01 Published : 2014-06-01

Keywords: گاو هلشتاین, تحلیل لجیستیک, نسبت احتمالات, جفت ماندگی,

Abstract :

برای بررسی اثر برخی عوامل بر میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی، 2844 رکورد زایمان مربوط به 1288 رأس گاو هلشتاین متعلق به یک گله به کار گرفته شد. این گاوها در سال های 1380 تا 1386 زایمان نموده بودند. مدل خطی تعمیم یافته برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها استفاده شد. مدل آماری رگرسیون لجیستیک جهت برازش مدل به کار رفت. مدل آماری، شامل اثرات ثابت سال، فصل (دوره گرم و سرد)، جنس و تیپ تولد ( تک یا دو قلو بودن) گوساله، نوبت زایش و طول دوره آبستنی در شکم فعلی گاو ماده بود. وقوع جفت ماندگی در فایل ارقام، به صورت کد صفر (گاو سالم) و کد یک (گاو مبتلا به جفت ماندگی) تعریف گردید و در آنالیز ارقام، احتمال ابتلاء به جفت ماندگی مورد نظر بود. تمام عوامل ثابت بر میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی اثر معنی‌دار آماری داشتند. برآورد نسبت احتمالات برای فصل سرد نسبت به فصل گرم، 619/0 بود که نشان می‌دهد احتمال میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی در فصل سرد نسبت به فصل گرم حدوداً 38 درصد کمتر است. برآورد نسبت احتمالات برای زایمان‌های گوساله ماده نسبت به گوساله نر 6/0 بود که نشان می‌دهد احتمال وقوع جفت ماندگی در زایمان‌های ماده 40 درصد کمتر است. نتایج نشان داد احتمال وقوع جفت ماندگی در گاوهای دو‌قلو زا نسبت به تک‌قلو زا 9/5 برابر بود. با افزایش تعداد شکم زایش احتمال ابتلاء به جفت ماندگی افزایش یافت. یافته‌ها حاکی از این هستند که با اعمال مدیریت مطلوب می‌توان میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی را در گله کاهش داد.

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