تحلیل روند و مشخصه‌های بارش بر منابع آب کشاورزی در استان لرستان
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت منابع آباحسان لرنژاد 1 , حسین ابراهیمی 2 , حمیدرضا ربیعی فر 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد بین الملل کیش، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، جزیره کیش، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: تحلیل هیدرولوژیکی, آزمون ناپارامتریک, توابع مفصل, روش من-کندال,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: تحلیل رویدادهای هیدرولوژیکی یکی از مؤلفه‌های مهم ارزیابی مدیریت منابع و مصارف آب به شمار می روند. مقدار مصرف آب به‌طور مستقیم به پدیده های اقلیمی در یک منطقه بستگی دارد. بارندگی از یکی از شاخص های مهم تغییر اقلیم به شمار می رود که در تحلیل احتمالاتی پدیده های هیدرولوژیکی موردتوجه محققان قرار گرفته است. این تحقیق با هدف ارزیابی تحلیل روند و برآورد دوره بازگشت بارندگی در مدیریت منابع آب استان لرستان با استفاده از روش من-کندال اصلاح شده و مدل‌سازی احتمالاتی دومتغیره انجام گرفته است.روش پژوهش: محدوده مورد مطالعه استان لرستان واقع در بخش غربی ایران است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، سری های زمانی اطلاعات بارندگی برای دوره آماری 35 ساله از 1365 تا 1400 گردآوری شد. به‌منظور تحلیل روند بارش در استان از آزمون ناپارامتریک من-کندال اصلاح شده استفاده گردید. هم چنین برای تعیین دوره بازگشت دومتغیره مدت و ارتفاع بارش از توابع مفصل ارشمیدسی استفاده شد.یافته‌ها: نتایج بررسی ها نشان داد که اکثر نقاط استان لرستان ارتفاع بارندگی در دوره بازگشت 10 ساله کمتر از 50 میلی‌متر در روز است. این مقدار بارندگی به‌طور متوسط بین 100 تا 200 میلیون مترمکعب آب کشاورزی را برای هشت شهرستان تأمین خواهد کرد. نورآباد و الشتر به ترتیب بیش ترین و کم ترین مقادیر پیش‌بینی‌شده آب را در 10 سال آینده داشته‌اند. علاوه بر این مقایسه روند بارش‌ها نشان داد که در سطح اطمینان 5 درصد روند کاهشی و افزایشی معنی‌داری وجود نداشته است.نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج نشان داد اگرچه روند کاهشی یا افزایشی معنی‌دار با استفاده از روش من-کندال در شهرستان‌های استان لرستان شناسایی نشده است اما دوره بازگشت بارندگی نشان‌دهنده کاهش منابع آب در دسترس برای کشاورزی است. برنامه‌ریزی بر اساس توابع توزیع دومتغیره نشان داد که مدت بارندگی می‌تواند نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در محاسبه دوره بازگشت داشته باشد.
Background and Aim: The analysis of hydrological events is one of the important components of the management of water resources and consumption. The amount of water consumption directly depends on the climatic phenomena in a region. Rainfall is one of the important indicators of climate change, which has been considered by researchers in the probabilistic analysis of hydrological phenomena. This research has been conducted with the aim of evaluating trend analysis and estimation of rainfall return period in water resources management of Lorestan province using modified Mann-Kendall method and bivariate probabilistic modeling.Method: The study area is Lorestan province located in the western part of Iran. Based on the conceptual framework of the study, time series of rainfall data were collected for the statistical period of 35 years from 1365 to 1400. In order to analyze the trend of precipitation in the province, the modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was used. Furthermore, Archimedean joint functions were used to determine the return period of two variables, duration and height of precipitation.Results: The results showed that in most parts of Lorestan province, the height of rainfall in the 10-year return period was less than 50 mm per day. This amount of rainfall will provide between 100 and 200 million cubic meters of agricultural water for eight cities. Noorabad and Aleshtar respectively have the highest and lowest predicted amounts of water in the next 10 years. Moreover, the comparison of precipitation trends showed that there was no significant decreasing or increasing trend at the 5% confidence level.Conclusion: The results showed that although a significant decreasing or increasing trend was not detected using the Man-Kendall method in the cities of Lorestan province, the return period of rainfall indicates a decrease in available water resources for agriculture. Planning based on bivariate distribution functions showed that the duration of rainfall can play a decisive role in calculating the return period.
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