بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی هواشناسی بر روی خشکسالی آب زیرزمینی در مناطق مرطوب و نیمه‌مرطوب (مطالعه موردی: دشت تالش)
محورهای موضوعی : Business Administration and Entrepreneurship
رضا سراج ابراهیمی
1
,
سعید اسلامیان
2
,
محمد جواد زارعیان
3
1 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران.
2 - گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
3 - پژوهشکده مطالعات و تحقیقات منابع آب، موسسه تحقیقات آب، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: خشکسالی هواشناسی, تغییر اقلیم, خشکسالی آب زیرزمینی, سناریوهای RCP, دشت تالش,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده
مقدمه: به دلیل گرمایش جهانی، آب‌و‌هوا از لحاظ متوسط دما و بارندگی تغییر خواهد نمود و از جمله پارامترهای متاثر از این پدیده آب زیرزمینی می‌باشد. لذا به بررسی روند پارامترهای اقلیمی دما و بارش و تاثیر آن بر خشکسالی آب زیرزمینی در دشت تالش پرداخته شد.
روش: ابتدا مقادیر تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از مدل Lars-WG بدست آمد. سپس مقادیر شاخص‌های خشکسالی هواشناسی و آب زیرزمینی و بررسی روند این شاخص‌ها با استفاده از آزمون من-کندال و همبستگی پیرسون این دو شاخص محاسبه شد.
یافته‌ها: نتایج بررسی تغییرات سالانه بارندگی و دما طی دوره آتی (1419-1399) نشان داد که به ترتیب تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 بارش به میزان 9، 75/1 و 75/0 درصد و دما به میزان 05/1، 32/1 و 81/1 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش یافته است. همچنین در دوره پایه متوسط افت آبخوان در این دوره 15 ساله 86/0 متر بوده است. از طرفی نتایج اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر افت آب زیرزمینی طی دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه به ترتیب تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 نشان داد که آبخوان به میزان 07/2، 21/2 و 34/2 متر می‌باشد که نشان می‌دهد که هر چند بارندگی در سطح منطقه افزایش یافته است اما همچنان برداشت بی‌رویه از سطح آبخوان منجر به افت آب زیرزمینی گردیده است. همچنین یافته حاکی از آن است که خشکسالی هواشناسی در دوره پایه به میزان 66/49، 35/50 و 73/41 درصد به ترتیب در مقیاس های 12، 24 و 48 ماهه رخ داده است.
نتبجه‌گیری: بنابراین به منظور کاهش خسارات خشکسالی و به‌منظور جلوگیری از افت بیش از حد سفرههای آب زیرزمینی در این دشت، تمهیدات لازم را به منظور کاهش مصرف آب از سوی مدیران منابع آب و دستگاههای اجرایی در شرایط پیشرو را در برمی‌گیرد.
Abstract
Introduction and objectives: As a result of global warming, the climate will change in terms of average temperature and rainfall, with groundwater being one of the factors impacted. Consequently, the influence of climatic elements such as temperature and precipitation on groundwater drought values in the Talesh plain was investigated.
Materials and Methods: Initially, the LARS-WG model was used to calculate climate change values. Subsequently, using the Mann-Kendall test and the Pearson correlation of these two indices, the values of meteorological and groundwater drought indices were produced, as well as a study of the trend of these indices.
Findings and discussion: The findings of the annual changes in rainfall and temperature throughout the following period (2020–2040) reveal that precipitation of 9, 1.75, and 0.75% and the temperature of those have grown by 1.05, 1.32, and 1.81 °C under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Also, in the basic period, the declined average level of the aquifer in this 15-year period was 0.86 m. On the other hand, the impacts of climate change on decreasing groundwater level over the future period compared to the base period under the above scenarios indicated that the aquifer by 2.07, 2.21, and 2.34 m, respectively. Although it indicates that the rainfall has risen in the area, unrestricted drain from the aquifer has resulted in a decline in groundwater. The study also reveals that meteorological drought occurred in the basic era at a rate of 49.66, 50.35, and 41.73% at the scales of 12, 24, and 48 months, respectively. Therefore, in order to mitigate the severity of the drought and avoid excessive groundwater aquifer fall in this plain, required actions are essential to decrease water consumption by water resources managers and executive bodies under the present circumstances.
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