بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر سطح آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از مدل مفهومی بیلان (مطالعه موردی: دشت بیرجند)
محورهای موضوعی : برگرفته از پایان نامهاحمد جعفرزاده 1 , عباس خاشعی 2 , علی شهیدی 3
1 - دانشجوی دوره دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند
2 - دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند
3 - دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند
کلید واژه: بهینه‌سازی, دشت بیرجند, مدل مفهومی بیلان, MOPSO,
چکیده مقاله :
مدیریت منابع آب در مناطق خشک از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. از آنجا که در این مناطق بیشتر سهم مصارف متوجه منابع آب زیزمینی است، اطلاع از وضعیت کمی و کیفی این منابع ضروری است. خروجی‌های مدل‌های گردش عمومی ابزاری سودمند در جهت پیش‌بینی تغییرات متغیرهای اقلیمی به شمار می‌رود. در این پژوهش در ابتدا جهت بررسی پیامدهای کمی گرم شدن جهانی، با استفاده از بهترین خروجی مدل‌های گردش عمومی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر بارش براورد گردید، و در ادامه به منظور تحلیل وضعیت کمی آبخوان دشت بیرجند، از مدل مفهومی بیلان استفاده شد. واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی مؤلفه‌ها و اجزاء مدل مفهومی بیلان با استفاده از الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه MOPSO، و میانگین سطح آب زیرزمینی حدفاصل سال‌های 1390 تا 1393 (به عنوان ارتفاع مشاهداتی سطح آبخوان) انجام شد. از شاخص‌های R2 و RMSE به عنوان توابع هدف در این بهینه‌سازی استفاده شد. بازه‌ی تغییرات توابع هدف در مرحله‌ی واسنجی اعضای جمعیت نیز بین 96/0 تا 2/0 برای تابع RMSE، و بین 77/0 تا 97/0 برای تابع R2 رسید. همچنین میزان دقت توابع هدف در مرحله‌ی صحت‌سنجی برای تابع RMSE و R2به ترتیب برابر است با 84/0 و 91/0. در مرحله‌ی بعد، براورد سطح آب زیرزمینی آبخوان حدفاصل سال‌های 2015 تا 2030 میلادی انجام شد. نتایج مطالعه‌ی حاضر نشان داد که سطح آب زیرزمینی آبخوان دشت بیرجند در بازه مطالعه شده با روندی نزولی مواجه خواهد گردید. طبق شبیه‌سازی‌های مدل مفهومی در خصوص سطح آب زیرزمینی، انتظار می‌رود که حدوداً افت تجمعی و ارتفاع سطح آب زیرزمینی در پایان دوره‌ی آتی به ترتیب به ارقام 7 و 9/1315 متر برسد.
Water resource management in arid and regions has high importance. Since in these regions most of demands are programmed based on groundwater so inform of quantity and quality situation of groundwater is very necessary. General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs are useful instrument for forecast of variations of hydrological parameters. In this study to assessment of global warming impacts variations of rainfall patterns which has been influenced by climate change effects were first evaluated by using of best GCMs outputs and in continue balance conceptual model was examined to analysis of quantity situation of Birjand Aquifer. Calibration and validation of balance conceptual model was performed by using of Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization and observation water table (from 1390 to 1393). Fitness functions in this optimization were RMSE and R2. Results of optimization showed that ranges of fitness function in calibration period reached from 0.96 to 0.2 and from 0.77 to 0.97 for RMSE and R2 respectively. Also value of these indices reached 0.84 and 0.91 for RMSE and R2 respectively in validation period. In after step estimation of aquifer water table performed by input of rainfall predicted into balance conceptual model. Relying of conceptual simulations it is expected that cumulative head loss and groundwater table will reach to 7 and 1315.9 m in end of future period respectively.
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