بررسی اهمیت تغییرات پارامترهای بیوشیمیایی سرم در محاسبه میزان خطر بروز جابجایی شیردان در گاوهای شیری با استفاده از مدل آماری رگرسیون لوجستیک
محورهای موضوعی : پژوهش های بالینی دام های بزرگ
کلید واژه: رگرسیون لوجستیک, پارامترهای بیوشیمیایی, گاوهای شیری, جابجایی شیردان,
چکیده مقاله :
جابجایی شیردان به سمت چپ (LDA) ، یک بیماری متابولیک مهم در گاوهای شیری است که خسارات اقتصادی هنگفتی به صنعت گاوداری تحمیل می نماید. از این رو ، پیشگویی ابتلا به LDA به خصوص در هفته های ابتدایی پس از زایمان ، بسیار حایز اهمیت می باشد. در مطالعه حاضر ، 14 پارامتر بیوشیمیایی سرم گاوهای مبتلا به LDA قبل و پس از زایمان با گاوهای سالم (گروه کنترل) از طریق مدلهای آماری مختلف و به خصوص رگرسیون لوجستیک مقایسه گردید. در مدل آماری رگرسیون لوجستیک تغییرات 6 پارامتر شامل بتاهیدروکسی بوتیرات (BHB) ، اسیدهای چرب غیر استریفیه (NEFA) ، آسپارتات آمینوترانسفراز (AST) ، کلسیم ، سدیم و پتاسیم بین گاوهای بیمار و سالم معنی دار بود( 05/0 P<). با قرار دادن مقادیر این 6 پارامتر در اولین هفته پس از زایمان در رابطه آماری رگرسیون لوجستیک و محاسبه شانس ابتلا به LDA می توان از وقوع این بیماری در آینده از طرق مختلف نظیر تغییر در جیره، اصلاح مدیریت گله و جلوگیری از رخداد بیماریهای همزمان در گاو پیشگیری به عمل آورد.
Left displacement of abomasum (LDA) is an important metabolic disease in dairy cows which cause a large economic loss in dairy industry. So determination of these changes will be important to predict the disease after parturition. In the present study , 14 serum biochemical parameters of cows with LDA before and after parturition were compared to those of healthy cows (control group) using several statistical models especially Logistic regression. In the statistical model changes in 6 parameters beta-hydroxy butyrate(BHB), Non esterified fatty acids(NEFA), Aspartate amino transferase(AST), Calcium, Sodium and Potassium between control and LDA groups was significant (P<0.05). Using the values of these 6 parameters in the Logistic regression formula one week after parturition, the odds of LDA would be calculated. So the owner would be able to predict the occurrence of LDA and protect the herd against it with correction of diet and treatment of LDA concurrent metabolic diseases.
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