رقابت‌های راهبردی متداخل کشورهای قدرتمند در هند - اقیانوسیه و اوراسیا

محورهای موضوعی : سیاست پژوهی ایرانی (سپهر سیاست سابق)

رضا سیمبر ¹ , دانیال رضاپور ^{2 *}

1 - استاد، گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران.
2 - دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/12/15 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/04/10 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/04/01

کلید واژه: روسیه, اقیانوس هند, آمریکا, هند, اوراسیا,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی روابط متقابل هند با روسیه و آمریکا در اوراسیا و هند- اقیانوسیه در شرایط نوین جهانی و نیز ارزیابی تحولات تدریجی و اثرگذار هند در این دو منطقه با بهره‌گیری از نظریه منطقه‌ی ژئوپلیتیکی بود. فرض بر این است که روابط متقابل درون مثلث به دلیل رشد قدمت هند در عرصه بین‌المللی و همچنین رقابت مداوم بین آمریکا و روسیه برای وفاداری به هند، از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است .همچنین با توجه به تلاش‌های دهلی‌نو برای تبدیل شدن به یک قدرت جهانی تأثیرگذار، هند مجبور خواهد شد معاملات بیشتری انجام دهد، بنابراین از روابط نزدیک خود با واشنگتن و مسکو استفاده می‌کند. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی بوده و نتایج نشان داد، وخیم‌تر شدن روابط روسیه و آمریکا مانع از دستیابی هر نوع همکاری سه جانبه می‌شود. علی‌رغم حفظ دوستی سنتی و اعتماد متقابل، به نظر نمی‌رسد که روابط هند و روسیه پاسخ‌گوی واقعیت‌های زمان باشد.گرچه واشنگتن و مسکو همکاری با دهلی‌نو را به عنوان نشانه‌ای از رشد تعامل منطقه‌ای به ترتیب در هند - اقیانوس آرام و اوراسیا می‌دانند، اما هر دو کشور وقتی صحبت از گسترش همکاری می‌شود، با مقاومت خاصی از طرف هند روبرو هستند. چین یک متغیر کلیدی برای الگوی مثلث ایالات متحده، هند و روسیه است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The purpose of the present study is to investigate bilateral ties between India-Eurasia (Russia and the United States) and India-Oceania in new world conditions and also to assess the gradual transformations of India effective in the above 2 regions using the theory of geopolitical region. The hypothesis is that bilateral relations in the triangle of India, U.S.A and Russia is of special importance with regard to the growing history of India in the international realm and an ongoing competition between the U.S.A and Russia to remain faithful to India. Furthermore, with respect to the efforts of New Delhi to become an influential world power, India will have to do more trades; therefore, it makes use of its close relations with Washington and Moscow. The method of the study is descriptive-analysis and the results showed that deteriorating relations between Russia and the U.S.A is a hindrance to achieve trilateral cooperation. Despite traditional friendship and mutual trust between India and Russia, it seems that relations between the two countries cannot meet the realities today. Although Washington and Moscow regard relationship with New Delhi as a sign of growing regional ties in India-Pacific Ocean and Eurasia, they face with a special resistance from the Indian counterpart when it comes to developing ties. China is considered as a key variable in the triangle model between the U.S.A, India, and Russia.

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3. Dittmer, L. (1981). The Strategic Triangle An Elementary Game- Theoretical Analysis. World Politics, 33(4): 485-515. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2010133


4. Gupta, A. (10 November 2018). Moscow Regional Consultations on Afghanistan: Can India Play a Role?. Vivekananda International Foundation. Available at:

https://www.vifindia.org/2018/november/10/moscow-regional-consultations-on afghanistan-can-india-play-a-role.

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https://www.swp berlin.org/en/publication/from-asia-pacific-to-indo-pacific.

1. Jaishankar, D. (24 October 2018). The Real Significance of the Quad. The Strategist, Available at: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-real-significance-of-the-quad/ (Accessed on November 30, 2018).


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https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/from-east-to-west-or greater-eurasia.

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4. Krishnan, A. (30 November 2018). The Other G20 Meeting: Can Xi and Modi Solve the China-India Border Paradox?. The South China Morning Post. Available at:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2175679/other-g20-meeting-can xi-and-modi-solve-china-india-border .

1. Kuchins, A. (2018). What is Eurasia to US (the U.S.)?.  Journal of Eurasian Studies, 9(2): 125-133.


2. Kurilla, I. (5 December 2017). Whenever America is in crisis Russia is its whipping boy. The Washington Post. Available at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2017/12/05/trump-russia.

1. Kuznetsova, A. (1 September 2017). Greater Eurasia: Perceptions from Russia. The European Union, and China. Russian International Affairs Council. Available at:

https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/greater-eurasia perceptions-from-russia-the-european-union-and-china.

1. Lavrov, S. (11 December 2017). Remarks at the Vivekananda International Foundation New Delhi. Available at: https://www.vifindia.org/remarks/foreign minister-sergey-lavrovs-at-the-vif.


2. Madan, T. (16 October 2018). Between a Cold War Ally and An Indo-Pacific Partner: India’s U.S. Russia Balancing Act. War On the Rocks, Available at:

https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/between-a-cold-war-ally-and-an-indo-pacific partner-indias-u-s-russia-balancing-act.

1. Ministry of External Affairs (1 June 2018). Prime Minister’s Keynote. Shangri La Dialogue, Available at:

https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches Statements.htm?dtl/29943/Prime+Ministers+Keynote+Address+at+Shangri+La+Dia ogue+June+01+2018. 

1. National interest (2018). Vostok-2018: Russia (with China Making a Guest Appearance) Set for Largest Wargames in over Three Decades. Available at:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/vostok-2018-russia-china-making-guest appearance-set-largest-wargames-over-three-decades.

1. National Security Strategy of the United States of America (December 2017), https://ge.usembassy.gov/2017-national-security-strategy-united-states-america president.


2. Orf online (2019). India-Russia Relations: Beyond Energy and Defence. Available at: https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-russia-relations beyond-energy-and-defence-58298.


3. Starr, F. (2005). A ‘Greater Central Asia Partnership’ for Afghanistan and Its Neighbors. Silk Road Paper,

ttps://www.silkroadstudies.org/resources/pdf/SilkRoadPapers/2005_starr_a-greater central-asia-partnership.pdf.

1. Stepanova, E. (2018). Russia’s Afghan Policy in the Regional and Russia-West Contexts, Russie. Nei.Reports, 23: 3-53.


2. The White House (4 October 2018). Remarks by Vice-President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China. Available at:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence administrations-policy-toward-china.

1. Trenin, D. (January 2018). Avoiding U.S.-Russia Military Escalation During The Hybrid War. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at:

https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Trenin_Hybrid_War_web.pdf.

1. Valdai Discussion Club Report (May 2016). Toward the Great Ocean 4: Turn to the East. Preliminary Results and New Objectives. Available at: http://valdaiclub.com/files/11431/ (Accessed on May 27, 2019).


2. Vosoughi, S. ; Falahi, E. & Heidari, G. (2014). Explaining Afghanistan's status as a hub of several regional subsystems with emphasis on the South Asian region and the role of India. Central Asia and Caucasus Journal, 87: 149-177. [In Persian]


3. Zakharov, A. (2019). The Geopolitics of the US-India-Russia Strategic Triangle. Strategic Analysis, 43(5): P. 357-371. https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2019.1653527.