تأثیر نوسان‌های سیاستی بر شاخص‌های انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : فناوری های تولید پایدارویدا آقامحسنی فشمی 1 , رضا مقدسی 2 * , امیر محمدی نژاد 3 , حسین باخدا 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
4 - استادیار، گروه مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: نوسان‌های سیاستی, بهره‌وری انرژی, مصرف انرژی, کشاورزی, ایران.,
چکیده مقاله :
انرژی ازجمله اصلی‌ترین عوامل تولید و درعین‌حال اصلی‌ترین محصولات عرضه‌شده برای مصرف‌کننده می‌باشد. در سال‌های اخیر اهمیت برنامه‌ریزی در مصرف بهینه انرژی دوچندان شده است. بامطالعه شاخص‌های انرژی و تأثیر سیاست‌های اقتصادی مختلف بر آن‌ها می‌توان به درکی از شرایط گذشته و حال و تصویری از آینده در بخش‌های مختلف انرژی رسید. این مقاله با استفاده از داده‌های مابین سال‌های 1401-1360 و به‌کارگیری الگوی خود توضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده غیرخطی به بررسی اثر غیرخطی نوسانات سیاستی بر شاخص‌های انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران می‌پردازد. نتایج حاکی از وجود ارتباط میان متغیرهاست؛ یعنی تکانه‌های مثبت در ارزش‌افزوده کشاورزی با ضریب 0/13 و در مقابل تکانه منفی با ضریب 09/0- بر مصرف انرژی در بلندمدت مؤثر خواهد بود اگرچه ضریب دوم ازلحاظ آماری معنی‌دار نیست. همچنین وجود عدم تقارن در اثر سایر متغیرها بر مصرف و بهره‌وری انرژی کشاورزی مورد تائید قرار گرفت.
Energy is one of the primary factors in production and simultaneously one of the principal commodities. In recent years, the significance of strategic planning in optimizing energy consumption has increased. By examining energy indicators and the impact of various economic policies on them, it is possible to attain a comprehension of past conditions and a picture of the future in different energy sectors. The data spanning from 1947 to 2019 were used through a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) for analyzing non-linear effects of policy instability on energy indicators in the agricultural sector of Iran. The results indicated an association among the variables, wherein positive fluctuations in agricultural value-added, with a coefficient of 0.13, and conversely negative fluctuations with a coefficient of -0.09, significantly affected long-term energy consumption. It is notable that the second coefficient lacked statistical significance. Additionally, the asymmetrical effects of other variables on energy consumption and productivity in agricultural practices was confirmed.
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