تعیین مناسب‌ترین روش اصلاحی برآورد باررسوب معلّق (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز تنگ بستانک)

محورهای موضوعی : جنگلداری

احمد نوحه گر ¹ , محمد کاظمی ² , سید جواد احمدی ³ , حمید غلامی ⁴ , رسول مهدوی ⁵

1 - استاد دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران
2 - دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان
3 - دانشیار پژوهشکده چرخه سوخت، سازمان انرژی اتمی
4 - استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان
5 - استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان

تاریخ دریافت : 1395/02/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1395/08/23 تاریخ انتشار : 1395/09/01

کلید واژه: روش‌های اصلاحی, رسوب معلّق, ضریب‌کارایی, روش تخمین‌گرشبه‌بیشینه درست‌نمایی, تنگ بستانک,

چکیده مقاله :

برآورد صحیح از میزان رسوب حمل شده توسط سیستم آبراهه یک حوزه آبخیز در طراحی تمام پروژه های آبی و حفاظت خاک ضروری می باشد. با توجه به تبدیل لگاریتمی داده های دبی – رسوب، نیاز به اصلاح اریب زیاد معادلات رگرسیونی سنجه رسوب می باشد. از این رو تحقیق حاضر درصدد ارزیابی عملکرد 6 روش سازمان خواروبار و کشاورزی جهانی (FAO)، روش اصلاح گر (LS)، روش اداره عمران اراضی ایالات متحده(USBR)، برآوردکننده نااریب با حداقل واریانس(MVUE)، روش کائو(β) و تخمین گر شبه بیشینه درست نمایی (MQMLE)در برآورد رسوب معلّق در حالت بدون تقسیم بندی داده ها در حوزه ی آبخیز تنگ بستانک بود. بدین منظور از شاخص های مجذور مربعات خطا (RMSE)، ضریب کارایی مدل(CE)، برآورد خطای نسبی(ER)، انحراف استاندارد عمومی(GSD)، شاخص نسبت اختلاف(r)، شاخص صحّت(P) و تفاوت توزیع احتمالاتی رسوب مشاهداتی و برآوردی استفاده شد. ضریب تبیین رسوب معلّق مشاهداتی و برآوردی جهت نمایش ارتباط قوی میزان مشاهداتی و اصلاحی محاسبه گشت. نتایج نشان داد روش تخمین گرشبه بیشینه درست نمایی(LQMLE) با میزان مجذور مربعات خطای معادل 663/3 ، ضریب کارایی 1/92، انحراف استاندارد عمومی 556/0، نسبت اختلاف 01/1 ، برآورد درصد خطای نسبی 33 و شاخص صحّت01/1 در کل بهترین مدل جهت برآورد رسوب معلّق حوزه و مدل های FAO و LS ( با مجذور مربعات خطای 24/6 و ضریب کارایی 3/76)،( با مجذور مربعات خطای87/4 و ضریب کارایی 7/85) ضعیف ترین مدل ها در برآورد رسوب معلّق حوزه می باشند. در مجموع روش های مختلف و ضرایب اصلاحی متفاوت نمودار سنجه رسوب در حالت بدون تقسیم بندی داده ها می توان نتیجه گیری کرد که در اکثر مدل ها روش های LQMLE و MVUE بهترین روش های برآورد رسوب معلّق بوده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Accurate estimation of the sediment amount carried by a watershed drainage system in the design of all projects in water and soil conservation is essential. Due to convert logarithmic sediment rating curves, sediment regression equations is necessary to correct too biased. The present study aims to evaluate the performance of five methods of rating curve including FAO, MVUE, QMLE, LRC, Ls and β in the case of no category situations. Root mean square of error, coefficient of efficiency indicators, General Standard Deviation, Precision, Difference relation and Relative error were used to evaluate the performance of sediment rating curves and to choose the best of them. The result showed LQMLE method with RMSE=3.663, CE=92.1, GSD=0.556, r=1.01, RE=33% and P=1.01 is the best method of calculating sediment and FAO and LS models (with root mean square error of 6.24 and efficiency coefficient 76.3), (the root mean square error of 4.87 and 85.7 efficiency coefficient) are the weakest model in estimating the suspended sediment basin. n general, different methods and different correction factors in non-categorized of sediment rating curves, can be concluded that in most models and methods LQMLE and MVUE are the best methods of estimating the suspended sediment load.

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