ﺑﺮرﺳﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات دﻣﺎى ﻣﻌﺎدل ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮى ﺷﻬﺮی(مطالعه موردی کلانشهر ﺷﻴﺮاز)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهریبابک اجتماعی 1 * , قاسمعلی مقتدری 2
1 - وصال شیرازی
وصال شمالی
2 - استادیار گروه جغرفیا دانشگاه پیام نور
کلید واژه: شهرستان شیراز, آسایش اقلیمی, شاخص دمای معادل فیزیولوژیک, تنش فیزیولوژیک,
چکیده مقاله :
ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺍﻃﺮﺍﻓﺶ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ: ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰ ﻫﺎی ﻫﻮﺍی ﺍﻃﺮﺍﻑ، ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻰ ﺷﺨﺺ، ﺩﻣﺎی ﻣﺤﻴﻂ، ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖﻧﺴﺒﻰ، ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﺁﻓﺘﺎﺏ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیراتی که دمای معادل فیزیولوژیک می تواند بر گردشگری شهری بگذارد انجام شده است .بدین منظور ﺳﻄﺢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺩﻣﺎی ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ (PET) ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ که ایم پهنه بندی بر اساس 10 ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﻤﺪﻳﺪی ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺠﺎﻭﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ی ﺁﻣﺎﺭی ﺍﺯ 2000ﺍﻟﻰ 2020 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ArcGIS ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻳﺎﺑﻰ IDW ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍی ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮی ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰﻭ ﺩﺷﺖ ﻣﺮﻛﺰی ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻟﮕﻮی ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ، ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻩ ی ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﺍﺧﺮ ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍی ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍی ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﺪﻩ ﺁﻟﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET میباشد. ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺁﭘﺮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﺒﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻧﺪﮎ ﻭ ﮊﻭﺋﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻧﺪﮎ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺗﺒﻪ ی ﺩﻭﻡ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎی ﺩﺳﺎﻣﺒﺮ، ﮊﺍﻧﻮﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺍی ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻟﮕﻮی ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﻰ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
Climate comfort is related to the temperature balance of the human body with its environment. This balance depends on the combination of factors such as: characteristics of the surrounding air, physical activity of the person, ambient temperature, relative humidity, sunlight and wind. The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effects that the physiological equivalent temperature can have on urban tourism. For this purpose, the surface of Shiraz city was zoned using the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index on an annual scale, which is zoned based on 10 observational stations. It was calculated in and around the city with the statistical period from 2000 to 2020. The generalization of the calculated station results to the level of the study was done in ArcGIS environment and using the IDW internalization method. According to the obtained results, the favorable and appropriate climatic conditions for tourism throughout the year in Shiraz city change due to the change of seasons and the change of weather conditions between the northern and southern highlands of the central plain. In general, the pattern of daily changes of the index showed that the period of climatic comfort in Shiraz includes two time periods in late spring and summer. The months of May and September are the only months without cold stress and have the best climatic conditions for attracting tourists, and it is the ideal time based on the PET .April and October with little cold stress and June with little heat stress are ranked second respectively. During the months of December, January, and February, the whole city has severe cold stress. Study the pattern of daily changes of the index showed that the spatial changes of the PET index in the region are mostly influenced by the geographical altitude and latitude.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The weather condition of an area is one of the most important factors affecting tourist attraction. Among the information needed by tourists for travel, destination climate conditions are crucial, and most tourists pay attention to climatic considerations when choosing a tourist destination. Various types of climates, such as dry, temperate, rainy, and tropical, offer different attractions and recreational activities for tourists. Tourists usually prefer destinations with favorable weather conditions and a variety of outdoor activities. Weather conditions greatly influence the tourism industry of a country or region. Tourism businesses, including hotels, restaurants, and recreational facilities, heavily rely on favorable weather conditions for their operations and profitability. Sudden changes in weather, natural disasters, and extreme weather events can significantly impact tourism activities and the economy of a region. Therefore, it is essential to monitor weather forecasts and develop contingency plans to minimize the adverse effects of unpredictable weather conditions on tourism.
Methodology
The implementation stages of a tourism climate suitability index for a coastal region with PET are as follows:Initial data: Collecting historical climate data, including temperature and precipitation, and mapping the coastal region's climate zones.Coastal zone delineation: Defining the boundaries of the coastal area.Climate zone mapping: Dividing the coastal region into climate zones based on temperature and precipitation patterns.PET calculation: Calculating the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) values for each climate zone.Tourism climate suitability assessment: Assessing the suitability of the climate for tourism in each zone based on PET values.Finalization: Finalizing the tourism climate suitability index for the studied area.Application: Using the tourism climate suitability index to categorize the tourism climate zones of the coastal region.
Conclusion
The topography of the area is rugged, with steep hills and valleys. It consists of several small villages scattered around the hillsides. Due to the steepness of the hills and limited access, some areas remain isolated and difficult to reach. In one of these remote villages, located at an altitude of approximately 1400 meters, a new project is underway to establish a PET recycling facility. This initiative aims to address the issue of plastic waste, which has become a significant problem in the region. By setting up this recycling plant, not only will the plastic waste be managed effectively, but it will also create employment opportunities for the local community. Additionally, it will contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing pollution and conserving resources.The establishment of the PET recycling facility requires careful planning and coordination. Infrastructure such as roads and utilities need to be developed to support the operation. Moreover, training programs for the local workforce will be essential to ensure the efficient functioning of the facility. Once operational, the facility will collect PET waste from the surrounding areas and process it into raw materials for various industries. This will not only reduce the environmental impact of plastic waste but also create a valuable resource for the manufacturing sector.Overall, the PET recycling project holds great potential for both environmental and socioeconomic benefits in the region. With proper implementation and support, it can serve as a model for sustainable development in similar areas.
Results and discussion
It can be claimed that almost all of the city is suitable for attracting tourists for at least one period of the year. Due to the important role that the elevations have played in the city of Shiraz It is also obtained from the PET index This city has many differences for different months of the year and for the studied stations. The favorable and appropriate climatic conditions for tourism in Shiraz city during the year vary due to the change of seasons and the change of weather conditions between the northern and southern highlands of the central plain. During the winter, the northern and southern regions have lower temperatures, fewer hours of sunshine, and stronger winds due to their elevation and the arrival of high and low pressure systems. This makes the conditions for tourism face obstacles. At the same time, the inner areas of the city have more favorable climatic conditions due to the lower altitude compared to other points. With the arrival of the summer season in the city, the northern and southern highlands create comfortable conditions for tourists due to the moderate conditions.
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Journal of Research and Urban Planning
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Research Paper
Investigating the Effects of Physiological Equivalent Temperature on Urban Tourism (Case Study of Shiraz Metropolis)
Babak Ejtemaei1: Assistant Professor of Geography Department of Payam Noor University. Tehran. Iran
Ghasemali moghtaderi: Assistant Professor of Geography Department of Payam Noor University. Tehran. Iran
Abstract | ARTICL EINFO |
Climate comfort is related to the temperature balance of the human body with its environment. This balance depends on the combination of factors such as: characteristics of the surrounding air, physical activity of the person, ambient temperature, relative humidity, sunlight and wind. The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effects that the physiological equivalent temperature can have on urban tourism. For this purpose, the surface of Shiraz city was zoned using the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index on an annual scale, which is zoned based on 10 observational stations. It was calculated in and around the city with the statistical period from 2000 to 2020. The generalization of the calculated station results to the level of the study was done in ArcGIS environment and using the IDW internalization method. According to the obtained results, the favorable and appropriate climatic conditions for tourism throughout the year in Shiraz city change due to the change of seasons and the change of weather conditions between the northern and southern highlands of the central plain. In general, the pattern of daily changes of the index showed that the period of climatic comfort in Shiraz includes two time periods in late spring and summer. The months of May and September are the only months without cold stress and have the best climatic conditions for attracting tourists, and it is the ideal time based on the PET .April and October with little cold stress and June with little heat stress are ranked second respectively. During the months of December, January, and February, the whole city has severe cold stress. Study the pattern of daily changes of the index showed that the spatial changes of the PET index in the region are mostly influenced by the geographical altitude and latitude
| Received: Accepted: PP:
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Keywords:Climatic comfort, physiological equivalent temperature index, physiological stress, Shiraz city
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Citation: DOI: DOR: |
[1] *Responsible author: Babak Ejtemaei, phone: 09171053450, e-mail ejtemaei@pnu.ac.ir
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The weather condition of an area is one of the most important factors affecting tourist attraction. Among the information needed by tourists for travel, destination climate conditions are crucial, and most tourists pay attention to climatic considerations when choosing a tourist destination. Various types of climates, such as dry, temperate, rainy, and tropical, offer different attractions and recreational activities for tourists. Tourists usually prefer destinations with favorable weather conditions and a variety of outdoor activities. Weather conditions greatly influence the tourism industry of a country or region. Tourism businesses, including hotels, restaurants, and recreational facilities, heavily rely on favorable weather conditions for their operations and profitability. Sudden changes in weather, natural disasters, and extreme weather events can significantly impact tourism activities and the economy of a region. Therefore, it is essential to monitor weather forecasts and develop contingency plans to minimize the adverse effects of unpredictable weather conditions on tourism.
Methodology
The implementation stages of a tourism climate suitability index for a coastal region with PET are as follows:Initial data: Collecting historical climate data, including temperature and precipitation, and mapping the coastal region's climate zones.
Coastal zone delineation: Defining the boundaries of the coastal area.
Climate zone mapping: Dividing the coastal region into climate zones based on temperature and precipitation patterns.PET calculation: Calculating the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) values for each climate zone.Tourism climate suitability assessment: Assessing the suitability of the climate for tourism in each zone based on PET values.Finalization: Finalizing the tourism climate suitability index for the studied area.Application: Using the tourism climate suitability index to categorize the tourism climate zones of the coastal region.
Conclusion
The topography of the area is rugged, with steep hills and valleys. It consists of several small villages scattered around the hillsides. Due to the steepness of the hills and limited access, some areas remain isolated and difficult to reach. In one of these remote villages, located at an altitude of approximately 1400 meters, a new project is underway to establish a PET recycling facility. This initiative aims to address the issue of plastic waste, which has become a significant problem in the region. By setting up this recycling plant, not only will the plastic waste be managed effectively, but it will also create employment opportunities for the local community. Additionally, it will contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing pollution and conserving resources.The establishment of the PET recycling facility requires careful planning and coordination. Infrastructure such as roads and utilities need to be developed to support the operation. Moreover, training programs for the local workforce will be essential to ensure the efficient functioning of the facility. Once operational, the facility will collect PET waste from the surrounding areas and process it into raw materials for various industries. This will not only reduce the environmental impact of plastic waste but also create a valuable resource for the manufacturing sector.Overall, the PET recycling project holds great potential for both environmental and socioeconomic benefits in the region. With proper implementation and support, it can serve as a model for sustainable development in similar areas
Results and discussion
It can be claimed that almost all of the city is suitable for attracting tourists for at least one period of the year. Due to the important role that the elevations have played in the city of Shiraz It is also obtained from the PET index This city has many differences for different months of the year and for the studied stations. The favorable and appropriate climatic conditions for tourism in Shiraz city during the year vary due to the change of seasons and the change of weather conditions between the northern and southern highlands of the central plain. During the winter, the northern and southern regions have lower temperatures, fewer hours of sunshine, and stronger winds due to their elevation and the arrival of high and low pressure systems. This makes the conditions for tourism face obstacles. At the same time, the inner areas of the city have more favorable climatic conditions due to the lower altitude compared to other points. With the arrival of the summer season in the city, the northern and southern highlands create comfortable conditions for tourists due to the moderate conditions.
ﺑﺮرﺳﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات دﻣﺎى ﻣﻌﺎدل ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮى ﺷﻬﺮی(مطالعه موردی کلانشهر ﺷﻴﺮاز)
Investigating the Effects of Physiological Equivalent Temperature on Urban Tourism (Case Study of Shiraz Metropolis)
بابک اجتماعی1: استادیار گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه پیام نور ،تهران،ایران
قاسمعلی مقتدری: استادیار گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه پیام نور ،تهران،ایران
اطلاعات مقاله | چکیده |
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واژه‌های کلیدی: ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ، ﺗﻨﺶ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ، شهرستانﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ
| ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺍﻃﺮﺍﻓﺶ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ: ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰ ﻫﺎي ﻫﻮﺍي ﺍﻃﺮﺍﻑ، ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻰ ﺷﺨﺺ، ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﺤﻴﻂ، ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖﻧﺴﺒﻰ، ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﺁﻓﺘﺎﺏ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیراتی که دمای معادل فیزیولوژیک می تواند بر گردشگری شهری بگذارد انجام شده است .بدین منظور ﺳﻄﺢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ (PET) ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ که ایم پهنه بندی بر اساس 10 ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﻤﺪﻳﺪي ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺠﺎﻭﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ي ﺁﻣﺎﺭي ﺍﺯ 2000ﺍﻟﻰ 2020 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ArcGIS ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻳﺎﺑﻰ IDW ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰﻭ ﺩﺷﺖ ﻣﺮﻛﺰي ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻟﮕﻮي ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ، ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻩ ي ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﺍﺧﺮ ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﺪﻩ ﺁﻟﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET میباشد. ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺁﭘﺮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﺒﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻧﺪﮎ ﻭ ﮊﻭﺋﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻧﺪﮎ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺗﺒﻪ ي ﺩﻭﻡ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺩﺳﺎﻣﺒﺮ، ﮊﺍﻧﻮﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ .ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻟﮕﻮي ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﻰ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
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استناد: DOI: DOR: |
[1] . نویسنده مسئول: بابک اجتماعی، تلفن: 09171053450، پست الکترونیکی: ejtemaei@pnu.ac.ir
مقدمه
امروزه جهت ارزیابی تأثیر آب و هوا بر انسان می بایست اثر توأم همه عناصر آب و هوایی و اجزاء حرارتی محیط و عوامل و پدیده های آب و هوایی دخالت داده شوند. لذا آب و هوا می تواند یک جاذبه محسوب شود و نقش تعیین کنندهای در انتخاب مقاصد گردشگری داشته باشد. به طور کلی اقلیم هر منطقه در ترسیم خطوط آینده توسعه گردشگری نقش بسیار مهمی ایفا می کند (Moradmand et al 2018:116) با افزایش روزافزون تقاضای سفر و گردشگری و تبدیل شدن صنعت گردشگری به یکی از بزرگترین صنایع در جهان، هر کشور به منظور جذب گردشگران بالقوه لازم است در راستای توسعه اجتماعی اقتصادی و رشد زیربنایی خود تلاش کند(Shhmari Kolestan et al 2019:78)
امروزه در بسیاری از کشورها گردشگری مبتنی بر گردشگری شهری، نشان دهنده ارتقای استانداردهای زنددگی مردم است که براساس دیدگاه وبلین بیانگر توسعه "تفریحات طبقات شهری" به منزله شیوه خاصی از زندگی است(Bahramian &Shams al Dini 2017:133)اقلیم و تغییرات آن را می توا ن بعنوان یک منبع مهم طبیعی قلمداد کرد که با تاثیرات آن بر منابع محیطی می تواند طول و مدت گردشگری ،سلامت گردشگران و حتی بر سلامت آنها تاثیر بگذارد و پیش بینی تغییرات اقلیمی می توان بعنوان یک راهکار در نظر گرفت که بر این صنعت تاثیر گذار خواهد بود و طول دوره فصل گردشگری یکی از نتایج تغییر در محیط طبیعی خواهد بود(Sobhani & Ismailzadeh2019:66). گردشگري به عنوان يکي از فعاليتها وابستگي شديد خود را به شرايط اقليمي نشان داده است. موفقيت بسياري از مقاصد مهم گردشگري در دنيا مديون شرايط آب وهوايي مناسب و آسايش دمايي است. شرايط آب وهوايي نامطلوب از ارزش و جاذبه هاي مثبت يک منطقة توريستي مي کاهد و به دنبال آن اثرهاي نامناسبي را بر گردشگري برجاي ميگذارد(Sureh et al 2024:2).توسعه صنعت گردشگری به ویژه در کشورهای کمتر توسعه یافته، عامل مؤثری برای مقابله با فقر است و موجب افزایش درآمد، رونق اقتصادی، بهبود کیفیت زندگی مردم و درنتیجه افزایش رفاه اجتماعی می شود. پیش بینی می شود تا سال 2030 گردشگران بین المللی به 8/1 میلیارد نفر برسد و گردش مالی ناشی از آن سالانه 3/3 درصد رشد خواهد داشت(Hanafi 2021:52).وضعیت آب وهوایی یک منطقه از جمله مهمترین عوامل مؤثر در جذب گردشگر می باشد. از اطلاعات مورد نیاز گردشگران برای سفر، شرایط اقلیمی مقصد میباشد و اکثر گردشگران برای انتخاب مقصد گردشگری، ملاحظات اقلیمی را مورد توجه قرار می دهند. اقلیم از دیدگاه برنامه ریزی گردشگری بسیار اهمیت دارد و گردشگران معمولاً در جستجوی اقلیم مطلوب یا اقلیم آسایش هستند که در آن، فرد هیچگونه احساس نارضایتی و عدم آسایش حرارتی و اقلیمی نداشته باشد و این عامل نقش مهمی را در تصمیم گیری برای مقاصد گردشگری ایفا میکند(Manochehri et al 2018:120).ﺁﺏ ﻭﻫﻮﺍ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻓﺮﺩي ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻓﺮﺩي ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻄﺮ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻛﻢ ﺑﺮﺍي 80 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ (Qabadian & Feiz Mahdavi 2012:51)ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺳﻔﺮ، ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ میباشد ﻭ ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻠﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ. ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ˝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺴﺖ ﻭﺟﻮي ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ، ﻓﺮﺩ ﻫﻴﭻ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﺣﺴﺎﺱ ﻧﺎﺭﺿﺎﻳﺘﻰ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴﺮي ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺍﺭﺍ میباشد. (Matzarakis, 2001:172) ﻟﺬﺍ ﺍﻃﻼﻉ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍﻳﻰ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺸﺎﺭ ﺁﺳﻴﺐ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﭘﺸﺘﻴﺒﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴﺮي ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﻘﺎﺻﺪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﻰ ﺭﺍﺍﻳﻔﺎ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺑﺮﺍي ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻧﻰ ﺗﺎﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊي ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﻴﻼﻥ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻣﺸﺘﻖ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺟﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮي ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﻰ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻛﺴﺐ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ .(Matzarakis,2001:36) یکی از نکات حائز اهميت در صنعت گردشگری، وابستگی زیاد این صنعت به آب و هوای منطقه است و از این رو بسياری از مقاصد گردشگری با استفاده از همين مورد تبدیل به یک منبع گردشگرپذیر پر رونق در فصول خاصی شده اند. برای ارزیابی تاثير آب و هوا بر انسان و مطالعات اقليم آسایشی، مدل ها و شاخص های زیادی ارائه شده اند.در این ميان شاخص های مرتبط با فيزیولوژی انسان که از معادله بیلان بدن انسان مشتق شده اند، امروزه در مطالعات زیست اقليم انسانی جایگاه ویژه ای دارند(Ben Shams et al 2019:751ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﺎي ﻛﺎﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺰﻳﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﺎي ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻟﺤﺎظﻣﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻭ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﭘﻮﮔﺮﺍﻓﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮي ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻥ ﺁﺷﻜﺎﺭي ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ، ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﻝ دمای معادل فیزیولوژیک ﻭ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻣﻜﺎﻥﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ.ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ، ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻃﻴﻔﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺕ ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺭﺿﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﺨﺸﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ، ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻧﺎﻣﻴﺪﻩ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ. ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺑﺪﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ، ﻫﻴﭻ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻤﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﺎﻣﻼ˝ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻳﺎ ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﺮﺩ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﺪ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﻤﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺳﻦ، ﺳﻼﻣﺖ، ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺑﺪﻧﻰ، ﻧﮋﺍﺩ، ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺼﻞ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺧﻮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻧﺴﺒﻰ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ (Mohammadi 2007) ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮي ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﻣﺎي ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎي ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺣﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻣﺪﻝ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎي ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻀﺎي ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻧﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﻭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺮﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﺎي ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺏ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺗﺮ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﺮ میباشد. ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .لذا این تحقیق بدنبال یافتن پاسخ این سوال هست که دوره زمانی مختلف که می توان بر اساس شاخص PET جهت گردشگری برای شهرستان شیراز پیشنهاد شود کدام است
پیشینه و مبانی نظری تحقیق
ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﻚ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﻭ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺯﻳﺒﺎﻳﻰ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻫﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻰ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﻰ ﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ) 2004:209 al, et Jacqueline) ﻫﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍي ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﻣﺎ، ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖ، ﻫﻮﺍيﺁﻓﺘﺎﺑﻰ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﺩي ﻓﺮﺗﺎﺱ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﻰ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻭ ﮔﺬﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻓﺮﺍﻏﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ، ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻣﻼﮎ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺩي ﻓﺮﺗﺎﺱ ﺑﺮ ﻃﺒﻖ ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺯﻳﺒﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻰ، ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﻭ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺯﻳﺒﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻰ، ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﻭ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﺩﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺩ، ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺑﺶ ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻚ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻋﺼﺒﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻰ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮔﺬﺭﺍﻥ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻼﺕ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ می باشد.یک اقلیم مناسب می تواند پاسخ های مثبت ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻰ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺳﻔﺮ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺭﻳﺰي ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ. ﺷﻜﻞ1ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﺪ.
ﺷﻜﻞ1: ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي
اﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻳﻚ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻓﻀﺎي ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﺎﻥ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻛﻤﻚ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ است. (Matzarakis 2017) ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺍي ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ”ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ، ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﻭ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي” ﺑﻪ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮﺍ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻭي ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭي ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﻮﺗﺮﻣﻮﻟﻮﮊي ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﻣﻰ ﺩﺍﻧﺪ. ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺗﻮﺭﻳﺴﺘﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭي ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺑﻴﻮﻛﻠﻴﻤﺎي ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺁﮔﻮﺳﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ(Lopez etal 2021) .در پژوهش خو تحت عنوان درک آسایش حرارتی انسان در یک مقصد گردشگری در شهر پورتو پرتغال به این نتیجه رسیده اند که در نظر گرفتن آستانه های متوسط برای آسایش حرارتی درگردشگری بسیار مهم است.(Tian et al 2022) در پزوهش خود تحت عنوان عوامل موثر بر آسایش حرارتی ساکنان و گردشگران در فضای باز در منطقه سرد چین به این نتیجه رسیده اند که عوامل فیزیکی و اجتماعی دو عامل مهمک و تاثیر گذار بر ادراک حرارتی ساکنان در این منطقه بوده اند.(Ren et al 2022) در پژوهش خود در چین تحت عنوان اثرات درختان خیابان شهری بر راحتی حرارتی انسان و شاخص های فیزیولوژیکی به این نتیجه رسیده اند که محیط حرارتی شهری و آسایش تأثیر قابل توجهی بر پارامترهای فیزیولوژیکی انسان داشته است و در این زمینه کاشت درختان می تواند بسیار مثمر ثمر واقع شود.(Lai et al 2020) در پژوهش خود تحت عنوان بررسی جامع مطالعات آسایش حرارتی در فضاهای باز شهری به این نتیجه رسیده اند که عوامل فیزیکی ،فیزیولوژیکی و روانی تاثیر مستقیم بر آسایش حرارتی در فضلی باز شهری دارد.(Huang et al 2023)در پژوهش خود تحت عنوان مطالعه تجربی تأثیر موقعیت مکانی گردشگری مجازی بر آسایش دمایی گردشگران در زمینه متاورس به این نتیجه رسیدند که دمای محیط و شرایط سمعی و بصری به طور قابل توجهی بر احساس حرارتی شرکت کنندگان و بخشی از شاخص های فیزیولوژیکی تأثیر می گذارد (Yu et al 2023) در پژوهش خود تحت عنوان تأثیر پیکربندی منظر بر محیط حرارتی در فضای بازشهری در چین به این نتیجه رسیده اند که افزایش سطح آب و فضای سبز می‌تواند به طور قابل‌توجهی محیط گرمایی تابستان را بهبود بخشد. همچنین هنگامی که پوشش ساختمان تا 15 درصد افزایش یابد، تأثیر مفیدی بر آسایش حرارتی تابستان و زمستان دارد(Karimi 2014) ﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﻬﺮ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺰﻭﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﺍﻳﻞ ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻭﺍﺳﻂ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ )ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻓﺮﻭﺭﺩﻳﻦ ﻭﺁﺑﺎﻥ ﻣﺎﻩ ( ﻣﻰﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ 47 ﺭﻭﺯ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻫﻬﺎي ﻳﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﺎ ﻣﻬﺮ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻏﺎﻟﺐ ﺧﻴﻠﻰ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻫﻴﭻ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺸﻰ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. (Mir Mousavi 2013)ﺩﺭ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻨﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻛﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻳﺎﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ )ﺩﻩ ﻣﺎﻩ ( ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻫﻬﺎي ﺟﻮﻻي ﻭ ﺩﺳﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﺎﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﺧﻮﺑﻰﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﻠﺐ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺭﺿﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﻨﻔﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻬﻴﺪ ﺑﻬﺸﺘﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺗﻮﺭﻳﺴﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺧﺮﺍﺳﺎﻥ ﺭﺿﻮي ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ TCI ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ . ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺧﺮﺍﺳﺎﻥ ﺭﺿﻮي ، ﺩﻭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺑﻬﺎﺭ، ﻣﺎﻩ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻭﻝﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺳﺖ
شاخص های مورد بررسی
ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊي ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﻴﻼﻥ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻣﺸﺘﻖ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺍي ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ. ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚﻭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺳﻨﺠﻰ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي (PET) ﻭ (PMV) ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻑ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮي ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﻧﺪ. ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﺎ˝ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻰ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻌﻀﻰ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞﻫﺎ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر می روند (Zulfaqari2007:130)ﺑﺮﺍي ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺁﺏ ﻭﻫﻮﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺸﻰ، ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﺯﻳﺎﺩيﺩﺭ ﻧﻴﻤﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻗﺮﻥ ﺑﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺍﺑﺪﺍﻉ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ. ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﻖ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﻴﻼﻥ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪ، ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻭ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ. ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﻮﺍﺯﻧﻪ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﮔﻨﺮ٦ ﺩﺭﺳﺎﻝ ٢٧٩١ ﺍﺑﺪﺍﻉ ﻭ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ. ﻭي ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺁﺭﺍي ﭘﻴﺸﺒﻴﻨﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ (PMV) ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻧﺎﺭﺍﺿﻰ ٧PPD ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻛﻤﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﺎﻥ ﺗﻬﻮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍي ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﺗﺎﻕ )ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ( ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ. ﺩﻭ ﺩﻫﻪبعد چندرتیزکی و همکارانش (1990) موفق شدند که روش پیچیده فانکر را با اختصاص ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ، ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﻝ MEMI ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ .(Ismaili 2010:201) ﻣﺪﻝ MEMI ﻣﺨﻔﻒ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﻴﻼﻥ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﺑﺮﺍي ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﺍﺳﺖ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﺷﺎﺭﻫﺎي ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﻭ ﺩﻣﺎﻫﺎي ﺑﺪﻥ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ، ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﺗﻼﻑ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﭘﻮﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺧﻮﻥ ﻭ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺑﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﻮﺳﺖ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ. ﻣﺪﻝ ٩MEMI ﺟﺰء ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎي ﻣﻮﺍﺯﻧﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ ﺗﺮﻣﻮ- ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي PMV ﻭ PET ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻰ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ. ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﺪﻝ MEMI ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ي ﺑﻴﻼﻥ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﺑﺪﻥﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖﺷﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ PET ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻫﻮﺍﺷﻨﺎﺳﻰ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺩﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﻫﻮﺍ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻰ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﺜﻞ ”ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﻣﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﺸﻰ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ“ ﻳﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻰ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ Tmrt ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺍﻳﻦﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺮﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭ Man Ray ﻛﻤﻚ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺩﻗﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ. ﻣﺪﻝ Man Ray ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﭘﺮﻭﻓﺴﻮﺭ ﻣﺎﺗﺰﺍﺭﺍﻛﻴﺲ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺭﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﺸﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺩﺭﺑﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ، ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂﺩﻣﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﺸﻰ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ میباشد ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ PET ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ
ﺟﺪﻭﻝ1 ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺁﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ
PET C̊ | ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺖ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﺗﻰ | ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺗﻨﺶ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ |
<٤ | ﺧﻴﻠﻰ ﺳﺮﺩ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎي ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ |
٤ | ﺳﺮﺩ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎي ﺷﺪﻳﺪ |
٨ | ﺧﻨﻚ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎي ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ |
13 | ﻛﻤﻰ ﺧﻨﻚ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎي ﺍﻧﺪﮎ |
18 | ﺭﺍﺣﺖ | ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎ |
23 | ﻛﻤﻰ ﮔﺮﻡ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎي ﺍﻧﺪﮎ |
29 | ﮔﺮﻡ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎي ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ |
35 | ﺧﻴﻠﻰ ﮔﺮﻡ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎي ﺷﺪﻳﺪ |
<41 | ﺩﺍﻍ | ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎي ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ |
منبع2007 al., et (Matzarakis
مواد و روش تحقیق
ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎي ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺭﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.مراحل اجرای کار به شرح ذیل می باشد- ﺍﺧﺬ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺳﻴﻨﻮﭘﺘﻴﻚ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ- ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻊ ﺁﻭﺭي ﺷﺪﻩ- ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي- ﺍﺟﺮﺍي ﻣﺪﻝ PET ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ- ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻻﻳﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ جهت پهنه بندی اقلیم گردشگری منطقه مورد مطالعه- ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺮﻭﺟﻰ ﻣﺪﻝ PET ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﻰ
محدوده مورد مطالعه
ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻛﻼﻧﺸﻬﺮ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺷﻬﺮ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻼﻧﺸﻬﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺎﺕ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ 27 ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﻭ ٧ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪ ﻭ ٣١ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﻭ 36ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ طولﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ 50 ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﻭ 27 ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪ ﻭ ٥٥ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﻭ 30 ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺼﻒﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻳﻨﻮﻳﭻ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺁﺏﻫﺎي ﺁﺯﺍﺩ 1540 ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺮﻛﺰي ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ، ﺩﺭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ 1486 ﻣﺘﺮي ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻛﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﻰ ﺯﺍﮔﺮﺱ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍي ﻣﻌﺘﺪﻟﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻮﻩ ﺩﺭﺍﮎ، ﺍﺯ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻮﻩﻫﺎي ﺑﻤﻮ، ﺳﺒﺰﭘﻮﺷﺎﻥ، ﭼﻬﻞﻣﻘﺎﻡﻭ ﺑﺎﺑﺎﻛﻮﻫﻰ )ﺍﺯ ﺭﺷﺘﻪ ﻛﻮﻩﻫﺎي ﺯﺍﮔﺮﺱ( ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﺳﺖ
شکل 2 :موقعیت کلانشهر شیراز
بحث و یافته‌های تحقیق
ویژکیهای طبیعی شهر شیراز:
از لحاظ توپوگرافیﻫﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭي ﺭﺳﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﺁﺑﺮﻓﺘﻰ ﺩﺷﺖ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭي ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺭﺳﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻭ ﺷﺮﻕ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻧﺎﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭي ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ـ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﭘﻮﮔﺮﺍﻓﻰ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ- ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ شکل 3 و 4 نقشه شیب و هیپسومتری کلان شهر شیراز
ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﺷﻬﺮﺭﺍ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﭘﻮﮔﺮﺍﻓﻰ ﻫﺪﺍﻳﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺍﺯﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺷﺮﻕ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻰ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﺯ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻕ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ، 1400 ﻣﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﺳﻄﺢ ﻭﺳﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺻﺎﻑ ﻭ ﻓﺎﻗﺪ ﺷﻴﺐ میباشد. ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺷﺮﻕ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺷﺮﻕ ﻭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﺮﻕ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﺷـﺶ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺗﻮﺩﻩ ﻫﻮﺍ، ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ي ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ: ﺗﻮﺩﻫﻮﺍیﻗﻄﺒﻰ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻳﻰ(که بیشتر ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻗﻼﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﮎﺩﺭ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻭ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ میباشد)، ﺗﻮﺩﻩ ﻫﻮﺍى ﺗﺮﻭﭘﻴﻜﺎﻝ ﺑﺤﺮى(ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺮﻳـﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺟﻬـﺖ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻰ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺑـﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﻫﺎيﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺍي ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺳﺖ)، ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺘﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺍى ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ(ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺘﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺍي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎ˝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﺍﺳﻂ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻭﺍﺳﻂ ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺜﺮﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﻫﺎي ﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻧﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ میباشد)، ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺘﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺍى ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ(ﻗﺴـﻤﺘﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺘﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺍي ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺒﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﻳﺎي ﺳﺮﺥ ﻭ ﺧﻠﺞ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﺳـﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ي ﺷـﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺷـﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻰ ﺷـﻮﻧﺪ)، ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺗﺮﻭﭘﻴﻜﺎﻝ ﺑحری(ﻋﺒﻮﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺩﻩ ﻫﻮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺸﻚ ﻭ ﻓـﺎﻗـﺪ ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﺍﺳـــﺖ، ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﮔﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺧﺎﮎ ﻭ ﻏﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺤﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ي ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﺩ)، ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺗﺮﻭﭘﻴﻜﺎﻝ ﺑﺤﺮىﺍﻗﻴﺎﻧﻮﺱ ﻫﻨﺪ(ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺩﻩ ﻫﻮﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ، ﺷﺒﻪ ﺟﺰﻳﺮﻩ ﻫﻨﺪﻭﺳﺘﺎﻥ، ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﭘﺎﻛﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺷﺮﻗﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ از جمله شیراز ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﺪﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳـــﻰ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺑﻴﺸـــﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩي ﻣﺎﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ 09/81ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻤﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﻮﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ 30 ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻤﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺭيﺣﺪﻭﺩ ٥٦ ﺩﺭﺻـﺪ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻫﻬﺎي ﺩي ﻭ ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻔﻨﺪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩي ﻣﺎﻩ ﺑﺎ ٠٤ ﺩﺭﺻـﺪ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﭘﺮ ﺑﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺳﺎﻝ میباشد. ﺑﻰ ﻧﻈﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﺩ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﻴﻔﺘﺪ.از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺩﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪﺷـــﺮﻕ ﻣﻴـﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺩﻣـﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴـﺪﺍ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨـﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺿـــﻌﻴﺖ ﻧﺎ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻳﻬﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ، ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻏﻬﺎي ﻓﺼــﺮﺍﻟﺪﺷــﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴــﻤﺘﻬﺎي ﺷــﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺷﻤﺎﻟﻐﺮﺑﻰ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻠﻄﻴﻒ ﻫﻮﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ
شکل5 میانگین دمای ماهانه کلانشهر شیراز
شکل5 میانگین دمای سالانه کلانشهر شیراز
ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺑﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ:
- ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ. - ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻫﺎي ﻫﻮﺍﺷﻨﺎﺳﻰ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻫﻮﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﻰ ﮔﺮﺍﺩ، ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺎﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻫﻜﺘﻮﭘﺎﺳﻜﺎﻝ، ﺭﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ، ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎﺩ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺘﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺛﺎﻧﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺑﺮﻧﺎﻛﻰ ﺁﺳﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻛﺘﺎ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. - ﺩﺳﺘﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻫﺎ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﻓﺮﺩي ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺖ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰﻫﺎي ﻓﺮﺩي ﻣﺜﻞ ﻗﺪ، ﻭﺯﻥ، ﺳﻦ ﻭ ﺟﻨﺴﻴﺖ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺷﻮﺩ.- ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻫﺎي ﺩﺳﺘﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﻡ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﻭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻛﻠﻮ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻭﺍﺕ میباشد
ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻴﺎت ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ و اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج داده ﻫﺎي ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﻰ
ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺮﺯ ﻫﺎي ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ میباشد. ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﻛﻪ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ، ﺿﺮﻭﺭي ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺷﺒﻜﻪ ﺍي ﺍﺯ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺗﺮﺍﻛﻢ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻪ
ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎي ﺳﻴﻨﻮﭘﺘﻴﻚ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﻃﻮﻝ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺭي 20 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )2000-2020( ﺩﺭﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ 10 ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺩﺭﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ.
جدول 3:موقعیت و ایستگاههای منطقه مورد مطالعه
ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﻳﺎ )ﻣﺘﺮ( | ﻃﻮﻝ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ | ﻋﺮﺽ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ | ﻧﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ |
1484 | 36 ̊ 52 | 32 ̊ 29 | ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ |
2030 | 40 ̊ 52 | ١١ ̊31 | ﺁﺑﺎﺩﻩ |
1288 | ' 41 ̊ 53 | 58 ̊ 28 | ﻓﺴﺎ |
792 | 17 ̊ 54 | 41 ̊ 27 | ﻻﺭ |
1632 | 20 ̊ 54 | 12 ̊ 29 | ﻧﻴﺮﻳﺰ |
1652 | 27 ̊ 52 | '١١ ̊ 30 | ﺳد ﺩﻭﺭﻭﺩﺯﻥ |
1596 | 43 ̊ 52 | 47 ̊ 29 | ﺯﺭﻗﺎﻥ |
2300 | 38 ̊ 52 | 54 ̊ 30 | ﺍﻗﻠﻴﺪ |
2251 | '50 ̊ 53 | 35 ̊30 | ﺻﻔﺎﺷﻬﺮ |
840 | 39 ̊ 51 | 36 ̊29 | ﻛﺎﺯﺭﻭﻥ |
ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﻰ، ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻫﻮﺍﺷﻨﺎﺳﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﻰ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺴﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻋﺪﺩي PET ﺑﻪ ﺍﺑﻌﺎﺩ 365 )ﺭﻭﺯ( × 10 )ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ( ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ. ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ، ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻮﻟﻮﮊﻳﻚ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪدر ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ.
شکل 6: ﭘﻨﺠﺮﻩ ﻧﺮﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ man Ray
جدول 2 شاخص دمای معادل فیزیولوژیک منطقه مورد مطالعه
petc ماهانه نام ایستگاه | ژانویه | فوریه | مارس | آوریل | می | ژوئن | ژوئیه | آگوست | سپتامبر | اکتبر | نوامبر | دسامبر |
شیراز | 2/ | 5/2 | 3/8 | 5/15 | 1/22 | 3/30 | 3/34 | 7/33 | 6/27 | 3/18 | 3/9 | 9/2 |
آباده | 3/5- | 4/1- | 9/1 | 5/8 | 7/14 | 1/23 | 1/27 | 7/27 | 9/20 | 8/12 | 1/3 | 8/1- |
فسا | 4/3- | 9/ | 5/6 | 5/10 | 4/15 | 1/22 | 5/25 | 8/25 | 2/21 | 1/15 | 8/5 | 1/ |
لار | 6/3- | 7/ | 8/7 | 8/13 | 1/20 | 28 | 2/32 | 5/31 | 7/25 | 3/16 | 6/5 | 1/4/- |
نیریز | 5/8- | 3/- | 9/3 | 7/11 | 19 | 7/26 | 2/31 | 7/29 | 2/23 | 6/13 | 4 | 7/2- |
دورودزن | 6/3- | 8/- | 4/5 | 5/12 | 6/18 | 5/24 | 2/27 | 3/28 | 7/22 | 9/14 | 5 | 6/2- |
زرقان | 3/5- | 8/3- | 3/2 | 3/8 | 9/14 | 9/21 | 5/26 | 9/26 | 5/20 | 7/12 | 2/3 | 1/3- |
اقلید | 9/1- | 9/6 | 1/14 | 9/18 | 3/26 | 3/34 | 8/36 | 1/36 | 8/30 | 7/21 | 5/11 | 3/5 |
صفاشهر | 2/2- | 5/1 | 5/10 | 2/16 | 4/22 | 4/31 | 6/34 | 1/33 | 7/26 | 4/17 | 7 | 4/1 |
کازرون | 9/6- | 4/1- | 5/6 | 6/11 | 6/17 | 8/26 | 9/31 | 9/29 | 5/21 | 3/17 | 1/2 | 8/4- |
ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻧﻰ،ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺤﻠﻰ ﺑﻮﻳﮋﻩ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ.
شکل 7: ﭘﻬﻨﻪﺑﻨﺪي ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET
ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ، ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻻﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻋﻀﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻭ ﮔﺬﺭﺍﻥ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻼﺕ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ میباشد. ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻢ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻫﺮ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩي ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻟﮕﻮي ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ، ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻩ ي ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﺍﺧﺮ ﺑﻬﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﺪﻩ ﺁﻟﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET میباشد. ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺁﭘﺮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﺒﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻧﺪﮎ ﻭ ﮊﻭﺋﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﻧﺪﮎ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺗﺒﻪ ي ﺩﻭﻡ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺩﺳﺎﻣﺒﺮ، ﮊﺍﻧﻮﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻓﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺗﻨﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺭﺳﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﻰ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻭ ﺻﺮﻓﺎ˝ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻳﺪﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﻇﺮ، ﭼﺸﻢ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻫﺎ ﻭ ... ﻣﻰ ﺳﻨﺠﺪ. ﻟﺬﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﻜﺎﺭ ﺑﮕﻴﺮي ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻭﺭﺯﺷﻰ ﻭ ﻛﻮﻫﻨﻮﺭﺩي ﻧﻴﺎﺯﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺗﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺷﺪ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻃﻴﻒ ﺳﻨﻰ ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻥ ﻭ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮيﺑﺎ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻥ میباشد. ﻟﺬﺍ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻰ ﻧﻤﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺩ. ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﺟﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺩﻭ ﻃﻴﻒ ﺳﻨﻰ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ )٢١ ﺳﺎﻝ( ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺼﻞ ﻭ ﻟﺒﺎﺱ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺳﺮﺩ )ﻣﻌﺮﻑ ﻭﺭﺯﺵ ﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎﻧﻰ( ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ي ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ، ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭﮎ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﻮﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻻﻣﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺩﺷﺖ ﻭ ﻛﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﻰ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ PET ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺳﻨﻰ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺴﺎﻻﻥ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮي ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻻﻣﺮﺩ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ PET ﺑﺮﺍي ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﺩ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻛﻤﺘﺮي ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺴﺎﻻﻥ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ میباشد. ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﻡ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ˝ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ میباشد ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻧﺪﻛﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻗﺸﺮ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺑﺮﻣﻰ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ˝ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﮔﺮﻡ ﺳﺎﻝﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻌﺘﺪﻝ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ میباشد ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺴﺎﻻﻥ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺗﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ. ﺑﺮﺍي ﺷﻬﺮ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻫﻢ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ˝ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ میباشد ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ PET ﺑﺮﺍي ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﻛﻰ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺯﻳﺮﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ گرمای منطقه اندکی کاهش پیدا می کند.
شکل8 ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻻﻣﺮﺩ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺴﺎﻻﻥ
شکل 9 ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﺪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺴﺎﻻﻥ
ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺼﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ PET ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﻰ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﻣﻰ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭي ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻻﻣﺮﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﻪ 10 ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﻰ ﮔﺮﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﻣﻰ ﺭﺳﺪ.ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﮔﺸﺮ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰي ﺭﺍ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺩ. ﻭﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻫﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻧﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺯﻳﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺟﺴﺖ.
شکل 10ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ لاﻣﺮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺼﻞ
ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﻫﺎي ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺍ میباشد ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪﺩﻳﺪﻥ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﭙﺮﺩﺍﺯﻧﺪ.
نتیجهگیری و ارائه پیشنهادها
ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺁﭘﺮﻳﻞ ﺗﺎ ﻣﺎﻩ ﮊﻭﺋﻦ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ي ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﻳﻦﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺳﺮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮي ﻓﺼﻞ ﮔﺮﻡ ﻣﻰ ﺭﻭﻳﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖﭘﺴﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ. - ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮي ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻳﺪﻩ ﺁﻝ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺍﺯ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﭘﺴﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻨﻮﻉ ﻧﺎﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭي ﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻫﺎي ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ اﺩﻋﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ˝ ﻫﻤﻪ ي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﺯﻩ ي ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ میباشد.ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻳﻔﺎ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍيﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭي ﻣﻰﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰﻭ ﺩﺷﺖ ﻣﺮﻛﺰي ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ. -ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻭ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎي ﭘﺮﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻛﻢ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﻭ ... ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﺩﻣﺎﻫﺎي ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺗﺮ، ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕﺁﻓﺘﺎﺑﻰ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻭﺯﺵ ﺑﺎﺩﻫﺎي ﺷﺪﻳﺪﺗﺮمیباشد. ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮﺍﻧﻌﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﻰ ﮔﺮﺩﺍﻧﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﺮي ﺍﺳت. ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺍﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﻓﺼﻞ ﮔﺮﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﺘﺪﻝ ﺑﻮﺩﻥﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﻰ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰﺑﺮﺍي ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﻪ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺞ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﻣﺮﺗﻘﻊ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺟﺎﺑﻪ ﺟﺎ ﻣﻰ ﺷﻮﺩ. - ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮي ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ PET ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺩﻫﺪ، ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺼﻞ، ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺁﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ.ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﻫﻢ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻻﻳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ میباشد ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻣﻰ ﺗﻮﺍن ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺭﺋﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ:
- ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻰ ﻧﻮﺍﺣﻰ ﺩﺷﺘﻰ ﻭ ﻛﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ میباشد ﻭ متغیرهایی ﻣﺜﻞ ﺩﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻥ نمی‌باشند، ﺩﺭ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻭ پژوهش‌های ﺑﻌﺪي ﻛﻪ درزمینهٔ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻭ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺻﻮﺭﺕ می‌گیرد، ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ می‌شود ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﺧﻮﺩ قرار بدهند ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﺯ شاخص‌های ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ خوددارند ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ. - ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ پتانسیل‌های ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺩﺭ بازه‌های ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺳﻨﻰ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺳﺎﻟﻤﻨﺪﺍﻥ. ﺯﻳﺮﺍ ﻣﺪﻝ PET ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ می‌دهد.- ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ فعالیت‌های ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻥ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ پتانسیل‌های ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ.- ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﺎ شاخص‌های ﻣﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ زیست‌اقلیمی- ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﺮﻭﺷﻮر- ﺑﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﻓﺼﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي ﺟﺬﺏ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮ ﺑﻪ هتل‌ها ﻭ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ می‌توان ﺑﻪ میزان قابل‌توجهی ﺩﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻮﺧﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﺩﺭ هتل‌ها ﻭ سایت‌های ﺗﻔﺮﻳﺤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻫﺶﺩﺍﺩ. -ازآنجایی‌که ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ به‌صورت پهنه‌بندی ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ GIS ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ می‌توان این نتایج را از طریق webgis در سایت میراث فرهنگی یا گردشگری قرار بگیرد ﺗﺎ ﮔﺮﺩﺷﮕﺮﺍﻥ به‌راحتی ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮﺍي گردشگری باخبر ﺷﻮﻧﺪ
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