آزمون علیت بوت‌استرپ در خصوص تعاملات علی بین درجه باز بودن تجارت، مصرف انرژی‌های نو و توسعه محیط زیست در جهت رشد اقتصادی
محورهای موضوعی : انرژی های تجدید پذیر
سارا مهری
1
,
حسین شریفی رنانی
2
,
سعید دائی کریم زاده
3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
3 - دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
کلید واژه: درجه باز بودن تجارت, مصرف انرژی‌های نو, رشد اقتصادی, آزمون علیت بوت‌استرپ, محیط زیست, پایداری توسعه.,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: انرژی همواره به عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم رشد و توسعه اقتصادی محسوب می شود. اما امروزه استفاده از منابع سنتی انرژی و سوختهای فسیلی به دلایل مختلف از جمله انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و نیز محدود و اتمام پذیر بودنشان با تردیدهایی همراه شده است هدف مقاله حاضر تعاملات علی بین درجه باز بودن تجارت، مصرف انرژی‌های نو و توسعه محیط زیست در جهت رشد اقتصادی است.
روش بررسی: برای این منظور از آزمون علیت بوت‌استرپ بر اساس داده‌های سالانه کشورهای منتخب توسعه‌یافته و کشورهای در حال‌توسعه طی دوره 2020-2002 استفاده شد.
یافته ها: براساس نتایج آزمون گرنجری بوت‌استرپ، علیت از سمت انرژی نو (EC) به رشد اقتصادی (Y) و برعکس و همچنین از سمت تجارت (TO) به رشد اقتصادی (Y) و برعکس در کشورهای منتخب توسعه‌یافته وجود دارد. هنگامي كه نرخ رشد اقتصادي به طرز محسوسي بالا مي‌رود، فشار فزاينده‌اي بر منابع وارد مي‌شود. در اين راستا، تقاضا براي تجهيزات سرمايه‌اي و پیشرفته افزايش مي‌يابد و چون امكان بهره‌برداری در هريك از منابع در این کشورها موجود است، ازاین‌رو، به همراه افزایش در رشد اقتصادی، افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های نو نیز دور از ذهن نیست. اما علیت در کشورهای منتخب درحال‌توسعه، یک‌سویه و از سمت متغیر انرژی نو به رشد اقتصادی می‌باشد و علیت از سمت رشد اقتصادی به سمت انرژی نو فقط در کشورهای چین و برزیل برقرار است.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت درحال‌توسعه نظیر ایران و روسیه، دلیل وجود عدم رابطه معنی‌دار مابین تولید و مصرف انرژی نو به علت وجود منابع عظیم نفتی و گازی است که باعث استفاده بی‌رویه و اتلاف انرژی می‌شود. در کشورهای نفتی به‌خاطر وفور منابع انرژی انگیزه استفاده بهینه پایین است و از همه مهم‌تر، قیمت انرژی در این کشورها، معمولاً هم جهت باقیمت‌های جهانی تغییر نمی‌کند.
Background and Objective: Energy is always considered as one of the important factors of economic growth and development. But today, the use of traditional sources of energy and fossil fuels is associated with doubts due to various reasons, including the emission of greenhouse gases, as well as their limited and exhaustible nature. It is the direction of economic growth.
Material and Methodology: For this purpose, the bootstrap causality test was used based on the annual data of selected developed countries and developing countries during the period of 2002-2020.
Findings: Based on the results of Granger bootstrap test, there is causality from the side of new energy (EC) to economic growth (Y) and vice versa, as well as from the side of trade (TO) to economic growth (Y) and vice versa in selected developed countries. When the rate of economic growth increases significantly, increasing pressure is placed on resources. In this regard, the demand for capital and advanced equipment is increasing and since it is possible to exploit any of the resources in these countries, therefore, along with the increase in economic growth, the increase in the consumption of new energy is not far from the mind. But the causality in the selected developing countries is one-way and from the variable side of new energy to economic growth, and the causality from the side of economic growth to new energy is established only in the countries of China and Brazil.
Discussion and conclusion: In developing oil exporting countries such as Iran and Russia, the reason for the absence of a significant relationship between the production and consumption of new energy is due to the existence of huge oil and gas resources that cause excessive use and waste of energy. In oil countries, due to the abundance of energy resources, the motivation for optimal use is low, and most importantly, the price of energy in these countries usually does not change in the direction of global balances.
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