رابطه علی بین سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، صادرات و تولید ناخالص داخلی- مطالعه موردی کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانی
علیرضا کازرونی
1
(دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز)
مجید فشاری
2
(کارشناس ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی)
حسن طاهری
3
(مربی و عضو هیأت علمی،گروه اقتصاد،واحد تبریز،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،تبریز،ایران)
کلید واژه: سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی, تولید ناخالص داخلی, صادرات, کشورهای منطقه منا,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف اصلی این مطالعه، بررسی رابطه علی بین متغیرهای صادرات، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تولید ناخالص داخلی برای 11 کشور منتخب منطقه خاور میانه و شمال آفریقا طی سال های 1995- 2005 می باشد. تکنیک اقتصاد سنجی مورد استفاده در این پژوهش آزمون علیت پانل بوده و علیت در قالب مدل خودرگرسیون برداری بررسی گردیده است. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که بین متغیرهای صادرات و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی یک رابطه علیت یک طرفه از سوی سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی به صادرات برقرار بوده و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی نیز علیت گرنجری تولید ناخالص داخلی در این گروه کشورها می باشد. همچنین نتایج تخمین مدل نشان می دهد که هیچ گونه رابطه علی از سوی متغیر صادرات به تولید ناخالص داخلی برقرار نبوده و صرفاً رابطه علی از سوی تولید ناخالص داخلی به صادرات می باشد. طبقه بندی JEL: F43: F21 : O11: C23
The main objective of this research is to investigate the causality relationship between FDI, Export, and GDP for 11 selected countries of MENA in the period of 1995-2005. The model of this research has been estimated by using panel causality test and VAR approach. The main findings of this study indicate that there is unilateral causality between FDI, Export, GDP from FDI to Export and FDI to GDP. Moreover, the results of estimation show that there is unilateral causality between GDP and Export from GDP to Export. However, there is no causality between GDP and Export from Export to GDP.
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Borenzatein, E., & De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Effect Economic Growth. Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135.
Chow, Y. F., & Zeng, J. (2001). Foreign Capital in a Neoclassical Model of Growth. Applied Economics Letters, 8, 613-615.
Chowdhury, A., & Mavrotas, G. (2003). FDI and Growth. The UNU/WIDER Conference on Sharing Global Prosperity.
Claret, M., & Mapalad, M. (1998). Foreign Capital Inflow and Domestic Saving in the Philipiness. Saving and Development, 1, 5-25.
Dritsaki, M., & Dritsaki, C., Adamopoulos, A. (2004). A Causal Relationship Between Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth for Greece. American Journal of Applied Science, 1(3), 230-235.
Ericsson, J., & Irandoust, M. (2001). On the Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment and Output: A comparative Studies. The International Trade Journal, 5(1). 1-26
Frimpony, J. M., & Oteng-Abayie, E. F. (2006). Bivariate Causality Analysis Between FDI and Economic Growth in Ghana. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 351.
Halicioglu, F. (2007). A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 3565.
Hansen, H., & Rand, J. (2004). On the Causal Link Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries. Institute of Economics University of Copenhagen, 20, 4-30.
Heydarian, H., & Saghaeiannejad, S. H. (2000). Determining the Relation Between Export and Economic Growth Using VAR Patterns and Repeatly Not Relevant Regression (ISUR). Journal of Social Sciences and Human Sciences, Shiraz 15, 97-120, (In Persian).
Hisao, F. S. T. & Hisao , M. Ch. W. (2006). FDI, Exports and GDP in East and Southeast Asia-Panel Data versus Time Series Causality Analysis. Journal of Asia Economic, 17, 1088-1106.
King, L. P., & Ua Radi, B. (2002). Beyond Manichean Economics: Forein Direct Investment and Growth in the Trasition from Socialism. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 35, 1-21.
Hosseini, S. S., & Mola'i, M. (2006). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 2, 57-80, (In Persian).
Liu, X., & Wang, Ch., & Wei, Y. (2001). Causal Link Between FDI and GDP. Economic Review, 12, 190-202.
Loungani, P. R. (2001). How Beneficial is Foreign Direct Investment for Developing Countries?, Finance and Development, 38, 6-10.
Mahdavi, A. (2004). An Analysis of the Role of Foreign Investment on Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Research, 66, 181-208, (In Persian).
Makee, Sh., & Agapi, S. (2003). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth. The World Bank.
Maleki, M., & Najarzadeh, R. (2005). Investigating the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth with Emphasis on Oil Exporting Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 23, 147-163, (In Persian).
Motavasseli, M. (1999). The Study of the Relationship between Export and Economic Growth Based on Ali Granger's Test. Program and Budget Magazine, 46 & 47, 41-71, (In Persian).
Nair-Reichert, U., & Weinhold, D. (2000). Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panel: New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Ststistics, 64, 153-171.
Pop-Silaghi, M. I. (2006). Testing Trade-led-Growth Hypothesis for Romania. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1321.
Riberio Ramos, F. F. (2001). Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Journal of Economic Modeling, 18, 613-623.
William, D. (1999). Foreign Manufacturing Firms in UK: Effect on Employment, Output and Suppier Linkages. European Business Review, 99, 393-398.
World Bank. (2007). World Development Indicators Database, Available in: www.wdi.org.
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Blomstrom, M., & Kokko, A. (2003), Human Capital and Inward FDI. EUS Working Paper Series, 167.
Borenzatein, E., & De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Effect Economic Growth. Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135.
Chow, Y. F., & Zeng, J. (2001). Foreign Capital in a Neoclassical Model of Growth. Applied Economics Letters, 8, 613-615.
Chowdhury, A., & Mavrotas, G. (2003). FDI and Growth. The UNU/WIDER Conference on Sharing Global Prosperity.
Claret, M., & Mapalad, M. (1998). Foreign Capital Inflow and Domestic Saving in the Philipiness. Saving and Development, 1, 5-25.
Dritsaki, M., & Dritsaki, C., Adamopoulos, A. (2004). A Causal Relationship Between Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth for Greece. American Journal of Applied Science, 1(3), 230-235.
Ericsson, J., & Irandoust, M. (2001). On the Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment and Output: A comparative Studies. The International Trade Journal, 5(1). 1-26
Frimpony, J. M., & Oteng-Abayie, E. F. (2006). Bivariate Causality Analysis Between FDI and Economic Growth in Ghana. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 351.
Halicioglu, F. (2007). A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 3565.
Hansen, H., & Rand, J. (2004). On the Causal Link Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries. Institute of Economics University of Copenhagen, 20, 4-30.
Heydarian, H., & Saghaeiannejad, S. H. (2000). Determining the Relation Between Export and Economic Growth Using VAR Patterns and Repeatly Not Relevant Regression (ISUR). Journal of Social Sciences and Human Sciences, Shiraz 15, 97-120, (In Persian).
Hisao, F. S. T. & Hisao , M. Ch. W. (2006). FDI, Exports and GDP in East and Southeast Asia-Panel Data versus Time Series Causality Analysis. Journal of Asia Economic, 17, 1088-1106.
King, L. P., & Ua Radi, B. (2002). Beyond Manichean Economics: Forein Direct Investment and Growth in the Trasition from Socialism. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 35, 1-21.
Hosseini, S. S., & Mola'i, M. (2006). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 2, 57-80, (In Persian).
Liu, X., & Wang, Ch., & Wei, Y. (2001). Causal Link Between FDI and GDP. Economic Review, 12, 190-202.
Loungani, P. R. (2001). How Beneficial is Foreign Direct Investment for Developing Countries?, Finance and Development, 38, 6-10.
Mahdavi, A. (2004). An Analysis of the Role of Foreign Investment on Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Research, 66, 181-208, (In Persian).
Makee, Sh., & Agapi, S. (2003). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth. The World Bank.
Maleki, M., & Najarzadeh, R. (2005). Investigating the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth with Emphasis on Oil Exporting Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 23, 147-163, (In Persian).
Motavasseli, M. (1999). The Study of the Relationship between Export and Economic Growth Based on Ali Granger's Test. Program and Budget Magazine, 46 & 47, 41-71, (In Persian).
Nair-Reichert, U., & Weinhold, D. (2000). Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panel: New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Ststistics, 64, 153-171.
Pop-Silaghi, M. I. (2006). Testing Trade-led-Growth Hypothesis for Romania. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1321.
Riberio Ramos, F. F. (2001). Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Journal of Economic Modeling, 18, 613-623.
William, D. (1999). Foreign Manufacturing Firms in UK: Effect on Employment, Output and Suppier Linkages. European Business Review, 99, 393-398.
World Bank. (2007). World Development Indicators Database, Available in: www.wdi.org.