بررسی نقش مدیریت بهره وری و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در توسعه صادرات غیرنفتی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانیمحمد رضا ناهیدی 1 , مهناز حسین پور 2
1 - عضو هیات علمی،گروه اقتصاد،واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
2 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصادی،واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تبریز، ایران
کلید واژه: بهره وری کل عوامل تولید, D24, سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی, صادرات غیر نفتی, E22, F23, فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات طبقه بندی JEL: L63,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه درجه توسعه یافتگی یک کشور رابطه مستقیمی با حجم روابط تجاری بین المللی آن کشور دارد. با به کارگیری استراتژی توسعه صادرات، کشورها می توانند به رشد تولید ملی و در نتیجه افزایش اشتغال دست یابند. توسعه صادرات غیر نفتی در اقتصاد ایران در زمینۀ اهداف مذکور و همچنین جهت حل مسائل ناشی از وابستگی اقتصاد به درآمدهای نفتی، بویژه در برهه کنونی حائز اهمیت می باشد. توسعه سرمایه گذاری و رونق صادرات غیرنفتی عامل مؤثری در تحقق اهداف تولید ملی است. در همین رهگذر نقش علم و دانش در اقتصاد به دلیل ایجاد تخصص و بهبود بهره وری عوامل تولید از گذشته مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. لذا در این مطالعه نیز با استفاده از داده های سری زمانی و مدل خود توضیح برداری (VAR)[1] به بررسی آثار بهره وری عوامل تولید، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر توسعه صادرات غیرنفتی کشور در طی سالهای 1387-1350پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از بررسی، تأثیرپذیری صادرات غیر نفتی از عوامل مذکور را مورد تأیید می کند و ضرورت توجه به این عوامل را در رابطه با سیاستهای تجاری روشن می سازد. [1].Vector Auto Correction Model
Today, the level of a country's development is directly related to itsinternational trade volume. Using the export-oriented development strategy,countries can achieve growth in national production and therefore increaseemployment.The necessity to develop non-oil exports in Iran's economy toachieve these goals and to solve the problems due to economy's dependenceon oil revenues, particularly in the current period is important. Developmentof investment and the growth in non-oil exports are important factors inrealizing national production goals. Accordingly, the role of science in theeconomy, due to creating expertise and improving the productivity ofproduction factors, has long had been the focus of attention. Therefore, thepresent study, by using time series data and Vector Auto Correction (VAR)Model, has tried to investigate the effects of the efficiency of productionfactors, information and communication technology, and foreign directinvestment on non-oil export growth during 1971-2008. The results confirmthe impact of the mentioned factors on non-oil exports and clarifies the waysto consider those factors with regard to trade policies.
Adeli, M. H., Nowroozi, R., & Motahari, M. A. (2009). The role of foreign direct investment on the non-oil exports of Iran. Journal of Knowledge and Development, 6(27), (In Persian).
Brenton P. and Winters A, (1987), estimating the international trade effects of 1992: West Germany, Journal of Common Market Studies, N.30, pp. 143-156.
Casson, T. (1976), the Future of the Multinational Firm, Landon: Mac Millan, Zed.
Davoudi, P., & Shahmoradi, A K. (2004). Recognition of Affecting Factors on the Foreign Direct Investment Capacity (FDI) in the Economy of Iran and 46 Countries in the Framework of a Consolidated Model. Iranian Journal of Economic Research Monthly, 20, (In Persian).
Deputy Directorate for Strategic Planning and Control of Presidency. (2007). Economic Report 2005 and Monitoring the Performance of the First Year of the Fourth Development Plan. Volume One: The 20th Century Outreach, (In Persian).
Haddad, M., & Harrison, A. (1993), Are There Positive Spillovers from Direct Foreign Investment? Journal of Development Economics, 42, 51-74.
Hadi Zolvanoz, B. (2000). Foreign Investment in Iran. Tehran: Farzan Rooz Publishing and Research, (In Persian).
Helpman, E, (1984), A Simple Theory of Trade with Multinational Corporations, Journal of Political Economy, No92, pp451-71.
Hosseini Nasab, E., & Gohachi, R. (2007). Foreign Trade and Productivity Growth in Iran's Manufacturing Industries. The Journal of Economic Research, 7(1), (In Persian).
Hsiao, F.S.T. & Hsiao, M.C.W. (2006), FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia-Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses, Journal of Asian Economics. No, 17 pp 1082- 1106.
Johansen, S. (1988), «Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors», Journal of Economic Dynamic and control, Vol 12, No 3,p 213-257.
Johnson, A. (2006),FDI and Exports: the Case of the High Performing East Asian Economies, Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation with number 57.
Jorgenson, D.W., Motohashi, K. (2005), "Information Technology and the Japanese Economy", NBER Working Paper, No. 11801.
Lail, K. (2004), Information Technology and Exports: A Case Study of Indian garments manufacturing enterprises, ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy, Bonn.
Lee, Sang-Yong Tom, R. Gholami, and T.Y., Tong (2005),"Time Series Analysis in the Assessment of ICT Impact at the Aggregate Level-Lessons and Implications for the New Economy", Information and Management, Vol. 42, pp.1009-1022
Liu, X. H. and Shu, C. (2003), Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries, Economics of Planning, 36 (1), pp. 45-67.
Mahmoudzadeh, M. (2009). The Effects of Information and Communication Technology on the Total Productivity Productivity in Iran. Executive Management Research Quarterly, 9(2), (In Persian).
Moosa, I (2002), On the Determinants of FDI: Evidence from East and Southest Asia, World Development, No.21 (3), PP 391-406.
Noferesti, M. (1999). Cointegeration and unitary roots in econometrics. Tehran: Rasa Cultural Service Institute,(In Persian).
Nourani, M. R. (1995). Economic Analysis of the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Iran's Economy. PhD Thesis, Tehran: Tarbiat Modarres University, (In Persian).
Pessoa, A. (2005), FDI and TFP in OECD countries: evidence from aggregate data. FEP working papers, n.188
Rahmani, T., & Hayati, S. (2007). The Effect of Information and Communication Technology Improvement on the Productivity of Total Productive Factors: A Study between the Country. Journal of Economic Research, 33, 25-51, (In Persian).
Shahabadi, A. (2003). The Study of the Factors Determining the Total Productivity of Economic Factors in Iran. Useful Articles, 38, 27-85, (In Persian).
Statical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic countries (sesric).
Shiu A and Heshmati A (2006), "Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Chinese Provinces: a Panel Data Analysis", Ratio Working Papers 98, Ratio Institute. Stockholm.
Temenggung, D. (2006), Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Indonesian Manufacturing Industry's Experience 1975-2000. Economics Division, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, ANU.
The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (2008). Economic Indicators of the Central Bank, (In Persian).
UNCTAD, (2000), World Investment Report, Geneva.
UNCTAD,(2006),Information Economy Report: The Development Perspective, United Nations, New York and Geneva.
Vernon, R, (1960), International Investment and International Trade in Product Cycle, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, No. 80. pp 128-231.
Zhang, K. H & Song, H. (2000), Promoting exports The Role of Inward FDI in China, China Economic Review, 11, pp, 385-396.
Zhang, Q. & Felmingham, B. (2001),The Relationship Between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China's Provincial Export Trade, China Economic Review, No, 12. pp, 82-99.
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Adeli, M. H., Nowroozi, R., & Motahari, M. A. (2009). The role of foreign direct investment on the non-oil exports of Iran. Journal of Knowledge and Development, 6(27), (In Persian).
Brenton P. and Winters A, (1987), estimating the international trade effects of 1992: West Germany, Journal of Common Market Studies, N.30, pp. 143-156.
Casson, T. (1976), the Future of the Multinational Firm, Landon: Mac Millan, Zed.
Davoudi, P., & Shahmoradi, A K. (2004). Recognition of Affecting Factors on the Foreign Direct Investment Capacity (FDI) in the Economy of Iran and 46 Countries in the Framework of a Consolidated Model. Iranian Journal of Economic Research Monthly, 20, (In Persian).
Deputy Directorate for Strategic Planning and Control of Presidency. (2007). Economic Report 2005 and Monitoring the Performance of the First Year of the Fourth Development Plan. Volume One: The 20th Century Outreach, (In Persian).
Haddad, M., & Harrison, A. (1993), Are There Positive Spillovers from Direct Foreign Investment? Journal of Development Economics, 42, 51-74.
Hadi Zolvanoz, B. (2000). Foreign Investment in Iran. Tehran: Farzan Rooz Publishing and Research, (In Persian).
Helpman, E, (1984), A Simple Theory of Trade with Multinational Corporations, Journal of Political Economy, No92, pp451-71.
Hosseini Nasab, E., & Gohachi, R. (2007). Foreign Trade and Productivity Growth in Iran's Manufacturing Industries. The Journal of Economic Research, 7(1), (In Persian).
Hsiao, F.S.T. & Hsiao, M.C.W. (2006), FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia-Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses, Journal of Asian Economics. No, 17 pp 1082- 1106.
Johansen, S. (1988), «Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors», Journal of Economic Dynamic and control, Vol 12, No 3,p 213-257.
Johnson, A. (2006),FDI and Exports: the Case of the High Performing East Asian Economies, Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation with number 57.
Jorgenson, D.W., Motohashi, K. (2005), "Information Technology and the Japanese Economy", NBER Working Paper, No. 11801.
Lail, K. (2004), Information Technology and Exports: A Case Study of Indian garments manufacturing enterprises, ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy, Bonn.
Lee, Sang-Yong Tom, R. Gholami, and T.Y., Tong (2005),"Time Series Analysis in the Assessment of ICT Impact at the Aggregate Level-Lessons and Implications for the New Economy", Information and Management, Vol. 42, pp.1009-1022
Liu, X. H. and Shu, C. (2003), Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries, Economics of Planning, 36 (1), pp. 45-67.
Mahmoudzadeh, M. (2009). The Effects of Information and Communication Technology on the Total Productivity Productivity in Iran. Executive Management Research Quarterly, 9(2), (In Persian).
Moosa, I (2002), On the Determinants of FDI: Evidence from East and Southest Asia, World Development, No.21 (3), PP 391-406.
Noferesti, M. (1999). Cointegeration and unitary roots in econometrics. Tehran: Rasa Cultural Service Institute,(In Persian).
Nourani, M. R. (1995). Economic Analysis of the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Iran's Economy. PhD Thesis, Tehran: Tarbiat Modarres University, (In Persian).
Pessoa, A. (2005), FDI and TFP in OECD countries: evidence from aggregate data. FEP working papers, n.188
Rahmani, T., & Hayati, S. (2007). The Effect of Information and Communication Technology Improvement on the Productivity of Total Productive Factors: A Study between the Country. Journal of Economic Research, 33, 25-51, (In Persian).
Shahabadi, A. (2003). The Study of the Factors Determining the Total Productivity of Economic Factors in Iran. Useful Articles, 38, 27-85, (In Persian).
Statical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic countries (sesric).
Shiu A and Heshmati A (2006), "Technical Change and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Chinese Provinces: a Panel Data Analysis", Ratio Working Papers 98, Ratio Institute. Stockholm.
Temenggung, D. (2006), Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Indonesian Manufacturing Industry's Experience 1975-2000. Economics Division, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, ANU.
The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (2008). Economic Indicators of the Central Bank, (In Persian).
UNCTAD, (2000), World Investment Report, Geneva.
UNCTAD,(2006),Information Economy Report: The Development Perspective, United Nations, New York and Geneva.
Vernon, R, (1960), International Investment and International Trade in Product Cycle, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, No. 80. pp 128-231.
Zhang, K. H & Song, H. (2000), Promoting exports The Role of Inward FDI in China, China Economic Review, 11, pp, 385-396.
Zhang, Q. & Felmingham, B. (2001),The Relationship Between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China's Provincial Export Trade, China Economic Review, No, 12. pp, 82-99.