تأثیر چرخه‌های تجاری بر امید به زندگی در کشورهای سند چشم‌انداز ایران 1404
محورهای موضوعی : -مدارک پزشکیعزیز رضاپور 1 , عبدالرضا موسوی 2 , مریم سلیمانی موحد 3
1 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد سلامت، دانشکده مدیریت و اطلاع‌رسانی پزشکی، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایران، تهران، ایران
2 - کارشناسی‌ارشد اقتصاد بهداشت، دانشکده مدیریت و اطلاع‌رسانی پزشکی، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایران، تهران، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد سلامت، دانشکده مدیریت و اطلاع‌رسانی پزشکی، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایران، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: مخارج سلامت, چرخه‌های تجاری, نرخ بیکاری., امید به زندگی, شهرنشینی,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: امید به زندگی ازجمله مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های بیانگر سلامت جامعه است که تحت تأثیر عوامل مختلف اقتصادی و اجتماعی می‌باشد؛ بنابراین مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثر چرخه‌های تجاری بر امید به زندگی پرداخته است. روش پژوهش: پژوهش این پژوهش یک مطالعه توصیفی - تحلیلی، از نوع گذشته‌نگر است که به بررسی اثر چرخه‌های تجاری، نرخ بیکاری، درصد مخارج سلامت و درصد شهرنشینی بر امید به زندگی طی سال‌های 2014 - 2000 پرداخته است. پس از گروه‌بندی کشورها بر اساس شاخص توسعه انسانی، تخمین مدل با استفاده از رهیافت اقتصادسنجی داده‌های تابلویی صورت گرفت که برای گروه اول و دوم از اثرات ثابت و گروه سوم از اثرات تصادفی استفاده شد. یافته‌ها: چرخه‌های تجاری در کشورهای با شاخص توسعه انسانی بالا شامل ایران اثر مثبت بر امید به زندگی دارد و در دو گروه دیگر اثر معناداری ندارد. درصد مخارج سلامت در گروه اول و سوم اثر مثبت اما در گروه دوم اثر منفی بر امید به زندگی دارد.نرخ بیکاری در گروه اول اثر مثبت و در گروه دوم اثر منفی بر امید به زندگی دارد اما در گروه سوم رابطه معناداری ندارد. درصد شهرنشینی در همه گروه‌ها اثر مثبتی بر امید به زندگی دارد. نتیجه‌گیری: اثر چرخه‌های تجاری و شاخص‌های اجتماعی - اقتصادی بر امید به زندگی با توجه به شاخص توسعه انسانی متفاوت است. با توجه به اثر مثبت چرخه‌های تجاری بر امید به زندگی در گروه دوم شامل ایران؛ ایجاد اشتغال و رونق اقتصادی باعث افزایش امید به زندگی می‌شود.
Introduction: Life expectancy is one of the most important health indicators that is influenced by various economic and social factors; hence, this study examined the effect of business cycles on life expectancy. Methods: This survey is a retrospective descriptive – analytic study that examined the effects of business cycles, unemployment rate, percentage of health expenditures and urbanization on life expectancy in countries noted in the Iran vision plan 2025. After grouping the countries based on the HDI, model estimation was carried out using the panel's econometric approach. For the first and second groups, the fixed effects and for the third group, the random effect was used. Results: Business cycle in the countries with high HDI, including Iran, has a positive effect on life expectancy and it has no significant effect in the two other groups. The percentage of health expenditure in the first and third groups has a positive effect on life expectancy, but in the second group, has a negative effect. The unemployment rate has a positive effect in the first group and a negative effect in the second group on life expectancy, but in the third group, has no significant effect. The percentage of urbanization also has a positive effect on life expectancy in all groups. Conclusion: The effect of business cycles and socioeconomic indicators on life expectancy varies according to HDI. Considering the positive effect of business cycles on life expectancy in the second group, including Iran, Increase employment rates and economic expansions will increase life expectancy.
1- Tikunov VS, Chereshnya OY. Public Health Index in Russian Federation from 1990 to 2012. Social Indicators Research, 2016; 129(2): 775-86.
2- Ketenci N, Murthy VN. Some determinants of life expectancy in the United States: results from cointegration tests under structural breaks. Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018; 42(3): 508-25.
3- Granados JAT. Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation. Social science & medicine. 2012;74(5):688-95.
4- Makiyan S, Taherpour E, Zangiabadi P. Health expenditure and life expectancy in islamic countries. Quarterly Journal of Strategic and Military Policies, 2016; 4(13): 25-40. [in Persian]
5- Asgeirsdottir TL, Corman H, Noonan K, Olafsdottir P, Reichman NE. Was the economic crisis of 2008 good for Icelanders? Impact on health behaviors. Economics & Human Biology, 2014; 13: 1-19.
6- Cutler DM, Knaul F, Lozano R, Méndez O, Zurita B. Financial crisis, health outcomes and ageing: Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s. Journal of Public Economics, 2002; 84(2): 279-303.
7- Suhrcke M, Stuckler D. Will the recession be bad for our health? It depends. Social science & medicine, 2012; 74(5): 647-53.
8- Shakeri A. Macroeconomics. Tehran: Pars Nevisa; 2008: 36-8. [in Persian]
9- Mackenbach JP, Looman CW. Life expectancy and national income in Europe, 1900-2008: an update of Preston’s analysis. International journal of epidemiology, 2013; 42(4): 1100-10.
10- Granados JAT, Roux AVD. Life and death during the Great Depression. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009; 106(41): 17290-5.
11- Kristjuhan U, Taidre E. The last recession was good for life expectancy. Rejuvenation research, 2012; 15(2): 134-5.
12- Bartoll X, Mari-DellOlmo M. Patterns of life expectancy before and during economic recession, 2003–12: a European regions panel approach. The European Journal of Public Health, 2016; 26(5): 783-8.
13- Novignon J, Olakojo SA, Nonvignon J. The effects of public and private health care expenditure on health status in sub-Saharan Africa: new evidence from panel data analysis. Health Economics Review, 2012; 2(1): 22.
14- Getzen T. Macroeconomic dynamics of health: lags and variability in mortality, employment and spending; 2011.
15- Gonzalez F, Quast T. Macroeconomic changes and mortality in Mexico. Empirical Economics, 2011; 40(2): 305-19.
16- Cleeren K, Lamey L, Meyer JH, De Ruyter K. How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross‐country Investigation. Health economics, 2016; 25(7): 787-800.
17- The Future Outlook of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Horizon of the Next Two Decades. Available from: http://rc.majlis.ir/fa/law/show/132295. [in Persian]
18- Malik K. Human development report 2014: Sustaining human progress: Reducing vulnerabilities and building resilience: United Nations Development Programme; 2014.
19- Granados JAT, Ionides EL. Mortality and macroeconomic fluctuations in contemporary Sweden. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 2011; 27(2): 157-84.
20- Kim JI, Kim G. Country-level socioeconomic indicators associated with healthy life expectancy: income, urbanization, schooling, and internet users: 2000–2012. Social Indicators Research, 2016; 129(1): 391-402.
21- Al-Mulali U. Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in MENA countries. Energy, 2011; 36(10): 6165-71.
22- Tayebnia A, Ghasemi F. Measurement of business cycles in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 2010; 45(92): 183-206. [in Persian]
23- Erfani A, Samee N, Sadeghi F. Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Iran Economy. Journal of Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 2016; 16(1): 95-119. [in Persian]
24- Linden M, Ray D. Life expectancy effects of public and private health expenditures in OECD countries 1970–2012: Panel time series approach. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2017; 56: 101-13.
25- Khakian M, Neshani Sadabad J, Hadian M, Ghaderi H, Ram M, Jouyani Y. The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables And Health Indicators In United Nations Member States: 2002-2010. Journal of Payavard Salamat, 2015; 9(4): 381-7. [in Persian]
26- Monsef A, Shahmohammadi M. Economic factors and life expectancy in136 countries during 2002 to 2010. Payesh, 2017; 16(5): 567-74. [in Persian]
27- Panahi H, Alemran S. Investigating the Impact of Inflation, Health Expenditures and Urbanization on Life expectancy in Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA). Payesh, 2016; 15(4): 346-50. [in Persian]
28- Motaghi S. Effective factors on the Life Expectancy in Selected Islamic Countries (Based on Homogeneous Income Groups). Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2015; 4(55): 185-205. [in Persian]
29- Fayissa B, Gutema P. Estimating a health production function for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Applied Economics, 2005; 37(2): 155-64.
30- Taheri S, Karimzade M, Tahsili H. The study of socioeconomic factors affecting life expectancy in Iran. Economic Journal, 2015; 15(1): 94-77. [in Persian]
31- Murray C. Shifting to Sustainable Development Goals--Implications for Global Health. The New England journal of medicine, 2015; 373(15): 1390-3.
32- Stenholm S, Head J, Kivimäki M, Kawachi I, Aalto V, Zins M, et al. Smoking, physical inactivity and obesity as predictors of healthy and disease-free life expectancy between ages 50 and 75: a multicohort study. International journal of epidemiology, 2016; 45(4): 1260-70.
_||_1- Tikunov VS, Chereshnya OY. Public Health Index in Russian Federation from 1990 to 2012. Social Indicators Research, 2016; 129(2): 775-86.
2- Ketenci N, Murthy VN. Some determinants of life expectancy in the United States: results from cointegration tests under structural breaks. Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018; 42(3): 508-25.
3- Granados JAT. Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation. Social science & medicine. 2012;74(5):688-95.
4- Makiyan S, Taherpour E, Zangiabadi P. Health expenditure and life expectancy in islamic countries. Quarterly Journal of Strategic and Military Policies, 2016; 4(13): 25-40. [in Persian]
5- Asgeirsdottir TL, Corman H, Noonan K, Olafsdottir P, Reichman NE. Was the economic crisis of 2008 good for Icelanders? Impact on health behaviors. Economics & Human Biology, 2014; 13: 1-19.
6- Cutler DM, Knaul F, Lozano R, Méndez O, Zurita B. Financial crisis, health outcomes and ageing: Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s. Journal of Public Economics, 2002; 84(2): 279-303.
7- Suhrcke M, Stuckler D. Will the recession be bad for our health? It depends. Social science & medicine, 2012; 74(5): 647-53.
8- Shakeri A. Macroeconomics. Tehran: Pars Nevisa; 2008: 36-8. [in Persian]
9- Mackenbach JP, Looman CW. Life expectancy and national income in Europe, 1900-2008: an update of Preston’s analysis. International journal of epidemiology, 2013; 42(4): 1100-10.
10- Granados JAT, Roux AVD. Life and death during the Great Depression. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009; 106(41): 17290-5.
11- Kristjuhan U, Taidre E. The last recession was good for life expectancy. Rejuvenation research, 2012; 15(2): 134-5.
12- Bartoll X, Mari-DellOlmo M. Patterns of life expectancy before and during economic recession, 2003–12: a European regions panel approach. The European Journal of Public Health, 2016; 26(5): 783-8.
13- Novignon J, Olakojo SA, Nonvignon J. The effects of public and private health care expenditure on health status in sub-Saharan Africa: new evidence from panel data analysis. Health Economics Review, 2012; 2(1): 22.
14- Getzen T. Macroeconomic dynamics of health: lags and variability in mortality, employment and spending; 2011.
15- Gonzalez F, Quast T. Macroeconomic changes and mortality in Mexico. Empirical Economics, 2011; 40(2): 305-19.
16- Cleeren K, Lamey L, Meyer JH, De Ruyter K. How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross‐country Investigation. Health economics, 2016; 25(7): 787-800.
17- The Future Outlook of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Horizon of the Next Two Decades. Available from: http://rc.majlis.ir/fa/law/show/132295. [in Persian]
18- Malik K. Human development report 2014: Sustaining human progress: Reducing vulnerabilities and building resilience: United Nations Development Programme; 2014.
19- Granados JAT, Ionides EL. Mortality and macroeconomic fluctuations in contemporary Sweden. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 2011; 27(2): 157-84.
20- Kim JI, Kim G. Country-level socioeconomic indicators associated with healthy life expectancy: income, urbanization, schooling, and internet users: 2000–2012. Social Indicators Research, 2016; 129(1): 391-402.
21- Al-Mulali U. Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in MENA countries. Energy, 2011; 36(10): 6165-71.
22- Tayebnia A, Ghasemi F. Measurement of business cycles in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 2010; 45(92): 183-206. [in Persian]
23- Erfani A, Samee N, Sadeghi F. Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Iran Economy. Journal of Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 2016; 16(1): 95-119. [in Persian]
24- Linden M, Ray D. Life expectancy effects of public and private health expenditures in OECD countries 1970–2012: Panel time series approach. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2017; 56: 101-13.
25- Khakian M, Neshani Sadabad J, Hadian M, Ghaderi H, Ram M, Jouyani Y. The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables And Health Indicators In United Nations Member States: 2002-2010. Journal of Payavard Salamat, 2015; 9(4): 381-7. [in Persian]
26- Monsef A, Shahmohammadi M. Economic factors and life expectancy in136 countries during 2002 to 2010. Payesh, 2017; 16(5): 567-74. [in Persian]
27- Panahi H, Alemran S. Investigating the Impact of Inflation, Health Expenditures and Urbanization on Life expectancy in Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA). Payesh, 2016; 15(4): 346-50. [in Persian]
28- Motaghi S. Effective factors on the Life Expectancy in Selected Islamic Countries (Based on Homogeneous Income Groups). Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2015; 4(55): 185-205. [in Persian]
29- Fayissa B, Gutema P. Estimating a health production function for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Applied Economics, 2005; 37(2): 155-64.
30- Taheri S, Karimzade M, Tahsili H. The study of socioeconomic factors affecting life expectancy in Iran. Economic Journal, 2015; 15(1): 94-77. [in Persian]
31- Murray C. Shifting to Sustainable Development Goals--Implications for Global Health. The New England journal of medicine, 2015; 373(15): 1390-3.
32- Stenholm S, Head J, Kivimäki M, Kawachi I, Aalto V, Zins M, et al. Smoking, physical inactivity and obesity as predictors of healthy and disease-free life expectancy between ages 50 and 75: a multicohort study. International journal of epidemiology, 2016; 45(4): 1260-70.