اثر رشد جمعیت، سرمایه انسانی و مصرف فرآورده‌های نفتی بر آلودگی محیط-زیست در ایران
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد محیط زیست
1 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
کلید واژه: انتشار دی اکسید کربن, منحنی زیست محیطی کوزنتس, مدل خود توضیح با وقفه های گستر,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده زمینه و هدف: بررسی آلودگی محیط زیست و عوامل تاثیر گذار بر آن از مباحث مهم اقتصاد محیط زیست می باشد. آلودگی زیست محیطی یکی از مهم ترین مشکلاتی است که انسان در عصر حاضر با آن رو به رو است. با افزایش جمعیت، سرعت تغییرات در محیط زیست نیز شدت می یابد، به ویژه اگر این جمعیت دانش حفظ محیط زیست را نداشته باشد، مشکل دو چندان می شود. هدف از این تحقیق بررسی تاثیر رشد جمعیت، سرمایه انسانی و مصرف فرآورده های نفتی، بر آلودگی محیط زیست در اقتصاد ایران طی سال های 1357 الی 1393 می باشد. روش بررسی: در این مطالعه، مدل آلودگی محیط زیست با استفاده از الگوی پویای خود توضیح با وقفه های گسترده (ARDL) تخمین زده شده است. دراین مدل انتشار گاز CO2 به عنوان شاخص آلودگی محیط زیست در نظر گرفته شده و اثر متغیرهای توضیحی بیان شده بر روی آن مورد برازش قرار می گیرد. یافته‌ها: در بررسی الگوی بلند مدت، یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد آماره t آزمون بنرجی دولادو مستر برای مدل های برآوردی، 35/3- بوده و وجود ارتباط بلند مدت بین متغیر ها تایید می شود. ضریب جمله تصحیح خطای مدل نشان داد که 53/41 درصد از عدم تعادل یک دوره در دوره بعد تعدیل می شود، یعنی مدل با سرعت متوسط سعی در تعدیل خود دارد. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج بررسی الگوی کوتاه مدت برای مدل های برآوردی، گویای رابطه منفی بین سرمایه انسانی و آلودگی محیط زیست می باشد. هم چنین نتایج تحقیق نشان گر رابطه مثبت بین متغیرهای مصرف فرآورده های نفتی، جمعیت و درآمد ملی با آلودگی محیط زیست می باشد. لذا پیشنهاد می گردد با کاهش یارانه مصرف فرآورده های نفتی و ترغیب مصرف کنندگان به انرژی های پاک از میزان آلودگی کاسته شود.
Abstract Background and Objective: Survey environmental pollution is an important issue of environmental economics. Environmental pollution is the most important problem facing humanity in the present age. With increasing population, the rate of changes in the environment intensifies especially if the population does not have knowledge of how to protect the environment, this problem increases. The role of human resources in the production process and therefore the quality of the environment from the perspective of economic theory, have been significant changes over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of petroleum products, human capital and the population on environmental pollution in the Iranian economy during the 1357 to 1393. Method: In this study, Environmental pollution model is estimated by using an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), this model, CO2 emissions are considered as indicators of environmental pollution. Findings: The findings of the long-term model show Banerjee, Dorado and Master t-test, for models was -3.35 and long-term relationship between variables was confirmed. Including error correction model coefficients showed that 41.53 percent of imbalance is a period of adjustment in the next period. The model tries to adjust its medium speed. Discussion and Conclusion: The results show a positive relationship between oil consumption, population and national income on environmental pollution. The results showed a negative relationship between human capital and environmental pollution as well. Therefore, it is suggested by reducing the consumption of petroleum products subsidies and to encourage consumers to use clean energy reduce the amount of environmental pollution.
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1- Emadzadeh, M.; Sadegi, M. 2004, Estimating the Human Capital Share in Iran’s Economic Growth (1965-2000), Iranian journal of Economic Research, Volume 5, Issue 17, Page 79-98. (In Persian)
2- Schvtkowski, Holger.2006.Human Ecology: Bio cultural Adaptations in Human communities, New York: springer. P32.
3- Houshmand, H.; Shirazi, A.; Kazeruni, A. 2008, The Impact of Population Growth on Iran's Environmental Pollution, journal of Economic, Volume 8, Issue 7, Page 64-75. (In Persian)
4- Shim, J.H. 2006. The Reform of Energy Subsidies for the Enhancement of Marine Sustainability, Case Study of South Korea, University of Delaware.p3.
5- Fotros, M.; Maaboudi, R. 2010, The Relation Between Energy Consumption, Urbanization and Environmental Pollution in Iran (1971-2006), Quarterly Energy Economics Review, Volume 7, Issue 27, Page 4-17. (In Persian)
6- Nasrollahi, Z.; Maboudi, R. 2009, Economic development and environmental pollution in Kyoto and Southwest countries(Emphasizing the Kuznets environmental curve), Iranian Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (IEGM), Volume 9, Issue 35, Page 105-126. (In Persian)
7- Sadegi, S.; Ebrahimi, S. 2013, Impact of Coal Consumption on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran, Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, Volume 2, Issue 7, Page 43-73. (In Persian)
8- Davanzo, Julia. 2001. The Environmental Implications of Population Dynamics http:/www.rand.org/popmatters.
9- Shastland, K. and Shaneh, J.K. 2001, World Population: Challenges and Issues', Translated by Mohammad Mirzaii, Tehran: Shahid Beheshti University press. (In Persian)
10- Detailed results of the general agricultural census of the whole country, 2014, p. 26. (in Persian)
11- Birasnav MF, Rangnekar S, Dalpati A, 2010, Transformational leadership, interim leadership, and employee human capital benefits: an empirical study, Procardia Social and Behavioral Sciences: 5, PP. 1037–1042.
12- Pajooyan, J.; khoshnevis, M. 2012, Investigating the Effect of Environmental Pollution on Human Development Index in Developed Countries Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 6, Issue 20, Page 39-67. (In Persian)
13- Dinda, S. 2004.Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey, Ecological Economics, 49, PP. 431-455
14- Pajooyan, J; Moradhasel, N. 2008, Assessing the relation between economic growth and air pollution, The Economic Research, Volume 7, Issue 4, Page 141-160. (in Persian)
15- Mahdavi Adeli, M.; Ghanbari, A. 2014, CO2 Emissions, GDP and Energy Consumption: a Multivariate Co integration and Causality Analysis for Iran, Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, Volume 3, Issue 9, Page 217-237. (In Persian)
16- Horry, H.; Jalaee, S.; Jafari, S. 2015, Examining the Impact of Financial Development and Energy Consumption on the Environmental Degradation in Iran in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC), Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, Volume 2, Issue 6, Page 27-48. (In Persian)
17- Nazari, R.; Mahdavi Adeli, M.; Dadgar, Y. 2015, Study of the Factors Influenced Environment Pollution in Iran During 1974-2013, Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, Volume 6, Issue 21, Page 60-47. (In Persian)
18- Alam, S., F. Ambreeen & B. Muhammad, 2007. Sustainable Development in Pakistan in the Context of Energy Consumption Demand and Environmental Degradation. Journal of Asian Economics, 18: 825-837.
19- Feng, Z. zou, L.wei, Y. 2010, Impact of household consumption on energy use and CO2 emissions in china, Energy, 636-670.
20- Muhammad, S., Muhammad Adnan, H. Q., & Kumar, T. A. 2013, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Financial Development, International Trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 109-121
21- Shahbaz, M.; Tiwari, A.K.; Nasir, M. 2013, “The Effects of Financial Development, Economic Growth, Coal Consumption and Trade Openness on CO2 emissions in South Africa”, Energy Policy, 61, PP 1452–145
22- Akpan, U. F., & Abang, D. E. 2014. Environmental Quality and Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis of the "U" in Kuznets. MPRA Paper No, 54461, 1-22, posted 20.March: http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen. de/54461/
23- Begum, R. A., Sohag, K., Mastura Syed Abdullah, S., & Jaafar, M. , 2015. CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic and Population Growth in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, 594–601.
24- Goetz, S. J. Debertin, D.L. & Pagoulatos, A., 1998, Human Capital, Income, and Environmental Quality: A State-Level Analysis, A,gricultural and Resource Economics Review, PP. 200-208.
25- Agheli Kohneshahri, L. 2003, Calculating Green GNP and Stable Rate of National Income in Iran, Doctorate ِissertation in Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University. (In Persian)
26- Tamazin, A. Chousaa, J.P.& K.C. Vadlamannatia .2009, “Does higher Economic and Financial development lead to Environmental Degradation: Evidence from BRIC Countries” , Energy Policy,37(1).137-145
27- Chontanawat, J., L. C. Hunt, R. Pierse, 2006. Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries. Surrey Energy Economics, 113:3-11.
28- Stern, D.I. 2004. Energy and Economic Growth, Rensselaer Working Paper, No. 0410.
29- UNFCCC. (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), Lima call for climate action, Advance unedited version, (Decision -COP 20). available at: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014