انتخاب اقتصادی‌ترین پروژه با استفاده از روش دلفی، روش رتبه‌بندی دینامیک و برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتیSoodabeh Namdare Zanganeh 1 , Sahar Vatankhah 2 , Fatemeh Adeli Kohi 3
1 - Assistant Professor in Industrial Engineering, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 - M.A Student in Industrial Engineering, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
3 - M.A Student in Industrial Engineering, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
کلید واژه: Project selection, Goal programming, برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی, روش دلفی, Delphi method, انتخاب پروژه, مدل ترکیبی, روش رتبه‌بندی دینامیک, combined model, Dynamic ranking method,
چکیده مقاله :
انتخاب صحیح پروژه یکی از فاکتورهای موفقیت مالی برای شرکت‌ها و سازمان‌هاست، شرکت‌های زیادی با مسأله انتخاب یک پروژه از بین تعدادی پروژه روبه‌رو می‌شوند. این شرکت‌ها در انتخابشان باید به موارد متعددی همچون ریسک، محدودیت منابع، محدودیت زمان، سودزایی مورد انتظار از پروژه و غیره توجه کنند. اهمیت این موضوع سبب پیدایش مدل‌های متعددی جهت انتخاب پروژه‌ها گردیده است. هر یک از این مدل‌ها به جنبه‌های خاصی از مسأله توجه می‌کنند بنابراین لزوم ارائه مدلی جهت ادغام اهداف احساس می‌شود. هدف این پژوهش ارائه رویکردی ترکیبی جهت انتخاب پروژه است. این رویکرد تلاش می‌کند جنبه‌های اقتصادی، سودزایی و محدودیت‌های پیش‌رو برای انجام پروژه را در نظر بگیرد. سه روش دلفی، رتبه‌بندی دینامیک و برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی گام‌های تشکیل‌دهنده مدل هستند. در قسمت اول مدل، جهت محاسبه دو پارامتر احتمال موفقیت فنی و اهمیت استراتژیک هر پروژه، روش دلفی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. در گام دوم، وزن‌های بدست آمده در گام اول به همراه اطلاعات اقتصادی پروژه‌ها به عنوان ورودی‌های رتبه‌بندی دینامیک به کار گرفته شده‌اند. در پایان این گام به هر پروژه وزنی اقتصادی داده می‌شود که این وزن‌ها در گام سوم به عنوان ضرائب تابع هدف آرمانی استفاده می‌شوند. در این گام برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی جهت در نظر گرفتن محدودیت‌ها به کار می‌رود. به کمک این مدل، سرمایه‌گذار به‌راحتی می‌تواند با در نظر گرفتن جنبه‌های اقتصادی، سودزایی و محدودیت‌های موجود بهترین گزینه را انتخاب کند. در انتها رویکرد ترکیبی مذکور برای روشن‌شدن مدل جهت انتخاب بین دو پروژه سرمایه‌گذاری A وB مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. برای حل مدل آرمانی نرم‌افزار winQSB استفاده شده است.
Choosing right project is one of the factors that companies and Organizations use to Financial Success, A large number of companies deals with a selection of one project through some projects. These companies had to consider many parameters like risks, resource constraints, time constraints and the expected project’s profit in their selections, to name a few. The importance of this topic leads to create several models to choose projects. Each model refers to special aspects of the problem. Therefore merging of this aim is necessary. This research tries to represent a combined approach to project selection. This approach determines economic, profitability and restrictions aspects of doing the project. Three methods of Delphi, dynamic ranking and Goal programming of this model. In the beginning part of this model, we use the Delphi method of calculation; Probability of technical success and strategic importance of each project. In the next step, we use earned weights by the first step and economic data of projects as dynamic rating inputs, at the end of this step economic weight will be given to each project, then this weights will be used as coefficients of Goal function at the third step. At this step Goal programming used to determine restrictions. By this model, the investor can consider economic, profitability and restrictions aspects of doing project easily and choose the best choice. At last foresaid combined approach is used to choose one of A or B Investing project as an example. To solve Goal model winQSB software is used.
1- Ale Rasoul, S. (2011). Necessary technical and economic evaluation of projects. Payam magazine, 30.
2- AL-Harbi, K.B. (2001). Application of the AHP in project management. International Journal of Project Management, 19–27.
3- Archer N.P., & Ghasemzadeh, F. (1999). An Integrated Framework for Project Portfolio Selection. International Journal of Project Management, 17(4), 207–216.
4- Armaneri, Ö., Özdagoglu, G., & Yalçinkaya, Ö. (2010). An integrated decision support approach for project investors in risky and uncertain environments. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics.
5- Azar, A., & Talangi, A. (1998). Goal Programming Model. Fuzzy Optimal Portfolio Selection. Management study magazine, 20, 131–150.
6- Chu, Y.L., & Fehling, Hsu, M. (1996). A decision support system for project portfolio selection. Computers in Industry 32.141–149.
7- Cleland, D., & Ireland, L. (2002). Project management Strategic design and implementation. New York: McGraw Hill.
8- Liang-Q Li, C. (2008). Enterprise information system project selection with regard to BOCR. International Journal of Project Management.
9- Cooper, et al. (2003). Drug makers look to new strategies in portfolio management. Chemical Market Report, 254 (21), 21–22.
10- Dey, P. K., Tabucanon, M. T., & Ogunlana, S. O. (1996). Hierarchical approach to project planning. Applied Mathematical Modeling, 20, 683–698.
11- Dunham, R. (1996). The Delphi technique. [Cited 2002 Mar 24]. Retrieved from http://www.medsch.wisc.edu/adminmed/2002/orgbehav/delphi.pdf.
12- Gabriel, S.A., Kumar, S., Ordonez, J., & Nasserian, A. (2006). A multi objective optimization model for project selection with probabilistic considerations. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 40, 297–313.
13- Ghasemzadeh, F., & Archer, N. P. (2000). Project portfolio selection through decision support. Decision Support Systems, 29, 73–88.
14- Imani Jajarami, H. (2000). Familiarity with the Delphi method and its application in decision making. Faslnameh Modiriat Shahri, 1(1), 35-9.
15- Izadbakhsh, H., & Vazife, A. (2009). Practical Learning of Management and Industrial Software Engineering. Jahad Daneshgahi, Vahede SanatieAmirkabir, Tehran, 61-63.
16- Kennedy, HP. (2004 Mar.) Enhancing Delphi research methods and results. J AdvNurs. 45 (5), 504-11.
17- Mahmoodzadeh, S., Shahrabi, J., & Pariazar, M.; Zaeri, M.S. (2007). Project selection by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS technique. International Journal of Human and social sciences, 59–66.
18- Martino, J.P. (1931). Research and development project selection. New York: John Wiley and sons.
19- Mehrez, A., & Sinuany–Stern Z. (1983). An interactive approach to project selection. Journal of Operational Research Society, 34, 621–626.
20- Meredith Jack, R. (2005). Project Management. A Managerial Approach, (5th Ed.).
21- Danila, N. (1999). Strategic evaluation and solution of R&D projects. R&D Management, 19, 47–62.
22- Shpak, A., & Zaporojan, D. (1996). Working out R&D program via multi criteria analysis. Computer Science of Moldova 4, (11), 239–259.
23- Shahanaghi, K., Jabbarzadeh, A., Hamidi, M., & Ghodoosi M. (January 2012). Selecting the Most Economic Project under Uncertainty Using Bootstrap Technique and Fuzzy Simulation. Iranian Journal of Management Studies (IJMS), Vol.5, No.1, 9-24.
24- Wey, W., & Mwu, K.Y. (2007). Using ANP priorities with goal programming in resource allocation in transportation. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 46, 985–1000.
_||_1- Ale Rasoul, S. (2011). Necessary technical and economic evaluation of projects. Payam magazine, 30.
2- AL-Harbi, K.B. (2001). Application of the AHP in project management. International Journal of Project Management, 19–27.
3- Archer N.P., & Ghasemzadeh, F. (1999). An Integrated Framework for Project Portfolio Selection. International Journal of Project Management, 17(4), 207–216.
4- Armaneri, Ö., Özdagoglu, G., & Yalçinkaya, Ö. (2010). An integrated decision support approach for project investors in risky and uncertain environments. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics.
5- Azar, A., & Talangi, A. (1998). Goal Programming Model. Fuzzy Optimal Portfolio Selection. Management study magazine, 20, 131–150.
6- Chu, Y.L., & Fehling, Hsu, M. (1996). A decision support system for project portfolio selection. Computers in Industry 32.141–149.
7- Cleland, D., & Ireland, L. (2002). Project management Strategic design and implementation. New York: McGraw Hill.
8- Liang-Q Li, C. (2008). Enterprise information system project selection with regard to BOCR. International Journal of Project Management.
9- Cooper, et al. (2003). Drug makers look to new strategies in portfolio management. Chemical Market Report, 254 (21), 21–22.
10- Dey, P. K., Tabucanon, M. T., & Ogunlana, S. O. (1996). Hierarchical approach to project planning. Applied Mathematical Modeling, 20, 683–698.
11- Dunham, R. (1996). The Delphi technique. [Cited 2002 Mar 24]. Retrieved from http://www.medsch.wisc.edu/adminmed/2002/orgbehav/delphi.pdf.
12- Gabriel, S.A., Kumar, S., Ordonez, J., & Nasserian, A. (2006). A multi objective optimization model for project selection with probabilistic considerations. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 40, 297–313.
13- Ghasemzadeh, F., & Archer, N. P. (2000). Project portfolio selection through decision support. Decision Support Systems, 29, 73–88.
14- Imani Jajarami, H. (2000). Familiarity with the Delphi method and its application in decision making. Faslnameh Modiriat Shahri, 1(1), 35-9.
15- Izadbakhsh, H., & Vazife, A. (2009). Practical Learning of Management and Industrial Software Engineering. Jahad Daneshgahi, Vahede SanatieAmirkabir, Tehran, 61-63.
16- Kennedy, HP. (2004 Mar.) Enhancing Delphi research methods and results. J AdvNurs. 45 (5), 504-11.
17- Mahmoodzadeh, S., Shahrabi, J., & Pariazar, M.; Zaeri, M.S. (2007). Project selection by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS technique. International Journal of Human and social sciences, 59–66.
18- Martino, J.P. (1931). Research and development project selection. New York: John Wiley and sons.
19- Mehrez, A., & Sinuany–Stern Z. (1983). An interactive approach to project selection. Journal of Operational Research Society, 34, 621–626.
20- Meredith Jack, R. (2005). Project Management. A Managerial Approach, (5th Ed.).
21- Danila, N. (1999). Strategic evaluation and solution of R&D projects. R&D Management, 19, 47–62.
22- Shpak, A., & Zaporojan, D. (1996). Working out R&D program via multi criteria analysis. Computer Science of Moldova 4, (11), 239–259.
23- Shahanaghi, K., Jabbarzadeh, A., Hamidi, M., & Ghodoosi M. (January 2012). Selecting the Most Economic Project under Uncertainty Using Bootstrap Technique and Fuzzy Simulation. Iranian Journal of Management Studies (IJMS), Vol.5, No.1, 9-24.
24- Wey, W., & Mwu, K.Y. (2007). Using ANP priorities with goal programming in resource allocation in transportation. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 46, 985–1000.