تحلیل اقتصادی استراتژهای پاسخ به ریسک پالایش استحصال گاز با روش NPV (مطالعه موردی صنعت پالایشگاه گاز)
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
alireza Askarian
1
,
mahnaz Mirza Ebrahim Tehrani
2
1 - PhD Student, Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Assistant professor, Dept. of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
تاریخ دریافت : 1399/05/23
تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/09/26
تاریخ انتشار : 1400/02/12
کلید واژه:
ارزش خالص فعلی,
استراتژی سرمایه‌گذاری,
نرخ بازگشت سرمایه داخلی,
ارزیابی اقتصادی,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه با ارزیابی فنی و اقتصادی می توان نسبت به اقتصادی شدن استراتژی‌های پاسخ به ریسک به صورت کاملاً علمی اظهار نظر کرد. هدف از این مطالعه تحلیل توجیح پذیری اقتصادی استراتژهای کاهش ریسک از بین اقدامات پیشنهادی توسط مدیران با توجه به در نظر گرفتن الزامات، استانداردها و محدودیت های پالایشگاه گاز است. با محاسبه کلی از زیان های توقف واحد پالایشگاه مشخص گردید که میزان آن بسیار سرسام آور می باشد و اگر بتوان حتی بخشی از هزینه های مربوطه را کاهش داد و یا سیر فرسایشی سیستم راکم کرد، می توان سود کلانی را عاید شرکت نمود. در این مطالعه اقتصادی بودن جریان فرآیند مالی استراتژی های کاهش ریسک، به صورت اختلاف عددی حاصل از قبل و بعد انجام اقدامات اصلاحی ریسک به عنوان میزان تاثیر گذاری اقدامات اصلاحی با استفاده از تکنیک‌های ارزش خالص فعلی و نرخ بازده داخلی، در ده سال ارزیابی شد است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل اقتصادی 6 استراتژی کاهش ریسک نشان داد، فرآیند مالی حاصل از پیاده سازی استراتژی های کاهش ریسک در واحد نسبت به پیشگیری از عدم رخداد رویداد و توقف واحد، مثبت و بزرگتر از صفر است که بر ضرورت پیاده سازی از نقطه نظر اقتصادی دلالت می کند. با استفاده از روش های پیشرفته برای تحلیل سرمایه‌گذاری، می توان اقتصادی بودن و افزایش سودآوری استراتژی کاهش ریسک ها را محاسبه می‌کنند.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Technical and economic evaluation is a completely scientific way of being able to comment on the economics of risk response strategies. The purpose of this study is to analys the economic feasibility of the risk mitigation strategy proposed by the unit managers taking into account the requirements, standards and constraints of the gas refinery. By calculation the total stop losses of the refinery unit showed that it was found that its amount is staggering, anf if even a part of the relevant costs erosion course of the system can be reduced, large profit can be made for the company. In this study, the financial process of risk reduction strategies, In the form of numerical differences obtained before and after risk correction measures and The effectiveness of corrective actions over ten years was analyzed using techniques the net present value (NPV) and return on capital investment (IRR). The results of the economic analysis showed six risk reduction strategies showed, the financial process resulting from the implementation of risk reduction strategies in the unit to prevent accident or stop the unit, is positive and greater than zero. According Using advanced methods for investment analysis, it is possible to calculate the economics and increase the profitability of the risk reduction strategy.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Pourfaraj A, Karami M, Talib Bidakhti Z, Nekuie Z. (2012). Feasibility study of investment opportunities in the tourism industry. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Industrial Management Studies, 9(52), 181-206.
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Reniers, G. L., & Sörensen, K. (2013). An approach for optimal allocation of safety resources: Using the knapsack problem to take aggregated cost‐efficient preventive measures. Risk analysis, 33(11), 2056-2067. doi:10.1111/risa.12036.
Saaty, T. L. (2004). Fundamentals of the analytic network process—Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network. Journal of Systems science and Systems engineering, 13(2), 129-157.
Sakka, E. G., Bilionis, D. V., Vamvatsikos, D., & Gantes, C. J. (2020). Onshore wind farm siting prioritization based on investment profitability for Greece. Renewable Energy, 146, 2827-2839.
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Vatani, J., Saraji, G. N., Pourreza, A., Salesi, M., Mohammadfam, I., & Zakerian, S. A. (2017). A framework for the calculation of direct and indirect costs of accidents and its application to incidents occurring in Iran’s construction industry in 2013. Trauma Mon, 22(1), e61805.
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Cheng, C. H. (1998). A new approach for ranking fuzzy numbers by distance method. Fuzzy sets and systems, 95(3), 307-317.
cheraghi, E., Khalilzadeh, M., Cheraghi, A., Rahimi, Y. (2019). Selection of the Strategies for Responding the Environmental Risks of Construction Projects by Metaheuristic Algorithms (Case Study: Saba Construction Complex Project). Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 21(4), 61-76. doi: 10.22034/jest.2019.14563
Evelyn Ai-Lin Teo, Yingbin Feng. (2011). The indirect effect of safety investment on safety performance for building projects. Architectural Science Review, 54. 65-80.
Feng Y. (2013). Effect of safety investments on safety performance of building projects. Safe Sci., 59:28-45.
Haghshenas, E., Gholamalifard, M., & Mahmoudi, N. (2017). Applied introduction of ecosystem service modeling of marine aquaculture: Approach for estimation of production and net present value (NPV). ISFJ, 26(1), 141-152. http://isfj.ir/article-1-1637-fa.html.
Hajdasinski, M. M. (2004). The internal rate of return (IRR) as a financial indicator. The Engineering Economist, 49(2), 185-197.
Hazen, G. B. (2003). A new perspective on multiple internal rates of return. The Engineering Economist, 48(1), 31-51.
Jallon, R., Imbeau, D., & de Marcellis-Warin, N. (2011). Development of an indirect-cost calculation model suitable for workplace use. Journal of Safety Research, 42(3), 149-164.
Kumar, L., Jindal, A., & Velaga, N. R. (2018). Financial risk assessment and modelling of PPP based Indian highway infrastructure projects. Transport Policy, 62, 2-11.
Liu, J., Jin, F., Xie, Q., & Skitmore, M. (2017). Improving risk assessment in financial feasibility of international engineering projects: A risk driver perspective. International Journal of Project Management, 35(2), 204-211.
Magni, C. A. (2013). The internal rate of return approach and the AIRR paradigm: a refutation and corroboration. The Engineering Economist, 58(2), 73-111.
Mellichamp, D. A. (2017). Internal rate of return: Good and bad features, and a new way of interpreting the historic measure. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 106, 396-406.
Miller, J. (2005). A method of Software Project Risk Identification and Analysis. PhD Thesis, Gdansk University of Technology, Faculty of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics.
Nowak-Ocłoń, M., & Ocłoń, P. (2020). Thermal and economic analysis of preinsulated and twin-pipe heat network operation. Energy, 193, 116619.
Pourfaraj A, Karami M, Talib Bidakhti Z, Nekuie Z. (2012). Feasibility study of investment opportunities in the tourism industry. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Industrial Management Studies, 9(52), 181-206.
Rabiei, M., Hosseini-Motlagh, S. M., & Haeri, A. (2017). Using text mining techniques for identifying research gaps and priorities: a case study of the environmental science in Iran. Scientometrics, 110(2), 815-842.
Reniers, G. L., & Sörensen, K. (2013). An approach for optimal allocation of safety resources: Using the knapsack problem to take aggregated cost‐efficient preventive measures. Risk analysis, 33(11), 2056-2067. doi:10.1111/risa.12036.
Saaty, T. L. (2004). Fundamentals of the analytic network process—Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network. Journal of Systems science and Systems engineering, 13(2), 129-157.
Sakka, E. G., Bilionis, D. V., Vamvatsikos, D., & Gantes, C. J. (2020). Onshore wind farm siting prioritization based on investment profitability for Greece. Renewable Energy, 146, 2827-2839.
Sasidharan, M., Burrow, M. P. N., & Ghataora, G. S. (2020). A whole life cycle approach under uncertainty for economically justifiable ballasted railway track maintenance. Research in Transportation Economics, 100815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100815
Shahbeig, H., & Nosrati, M. (2020). Pyrolysis of municipal sewage sludge for bioenergy production: Thermo-kinetic studies, evolved gas analysis, and techno-socio-economic assessment. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 119, 109567. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109567.
Vatani, J., Saraji, G. N., Pourreza, A., Salesi, M., Mohammadfam, I., & Zakerian, S. A. (2017). A framework for the calculation of direct and indirect costs of accidents and its application to incidents occurring in Iran’s construction industry in 2013. Trauma Mon, 22(1), e61805.
