بررسی اجتماعی سیاسی و زیست محیطی رشد صنعتی ایران بین سال های 1358 تا 1396
محمد طاهری
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری واحد تهران شمال
)
کیا پارسا
2
(
تهران شمال
)
ناصر میکائیل وند
3
(
Department of Mathematics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
)
کلید واژه: تولید صنعتی, صادرات صنعتی, مولفه خطا 3 مرحله حداقل مربع, مدل داده‌های تابلویی همزمان, مهندسی سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اقتصادی.,
چکیده مقاله :
برای ارزیابی عملکرد زیرسیستم‌های صنعتی ایران از نظر اجتماعی (جینی)، سیاسی (دموکراسی)، محیطی (انتشار CO2) و ارزیابی عملکرد زیرسیستم‌های صنعتی ایران، یک سیستم داده‌های پانل همزمان معادلات ساخته و آن را با مولفه خطای 3SLS (با TSP و Eviews) تخمین زدیم. متغیرهای اقتصادی نتایج نشان می دهد که افزایش ارزش افزوده صنعتی منجر به آلودگی بیشتر (از نظر CO2) و تولید ناخالص داخلی نیز می شود، در حالی که افزایش ارزش افزوده و صادرات باعث کاهش ضریب جینی می شود. اما حتی افزایش دستمزدهای واقعی باعث افزایش جینی می شود. وقتی ضریب جینی افزایش یابد، دستمزد واقعی نیروی کار به شدت کاهش می یابد. افزایش نرخ تعرفه باعث افزایش تقاضا برای نیروی کار و صادرات و کاهش واردات زیربخش ها می شود و افزایش نرخ بهره باعث افزایش ارزش افزوده و صادرات می شود. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که انباشت سرمایه انسانی تأثیر مثبتی بر تولید و کاهش واردات زیربخش‌ها دارد. در مجموع می‌توان گفت که زیربخش‌های صنعتی که بر اساس کدهای 2 رقمی ISIC تعریف می‌شوند، مسیر توسعه بسیار پیچیده‌ای دارند که سیاست‌گذاران را برای برنامه‌ریزی یک سیاست صنعتی مطلوب برای اقتصاد و سایر بخش‌های آن با چالش‌های جدی مواجه می‌کند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
We construct a simultaneous panel data system of equations and estimate it with error component 3SLS (with TSP and Eviews), to assess the performance of industrial subsystems of Iran in terms of social (gini), political (democracy) environmental (CO2 emission) and economic variables. Results show that industrial value added increases results in more pollution (in terms of CO2), and gdp, too, while at the same time value added and export increases reduce gini coefficient. But even increasing real wages increase gini. When gini coefficient increases, the real wages of labor will reduce sharply. Increasing tariff rates increase the demand for labor and exports, and reduce imports of subsectors, while increase in interest rates boost value added and exports. Also results show that human capital accumulation has positive impact on production and reduce imports of subsectors. In sum, it can be said that the industrial subsectors, which define in terms of ISIC2 digit codes has very complex development path which pose serious challenges for policy makers to program an industrial policy favorable for the economy and other sectors of it.
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