ارزیابی تاثیر نامتقارن شوک های قیمت نفت بر تخریب محیط زیست
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی
ثمین موسیوند
1
,
علیرضا دقیقی اصلی
2
*
,
مرجان دامن کشیده
3
,
علی اسماعیل زاده مقری
4
1 - دانشگاه آزاد تهران مرکزی
2 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
3 - دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی ، ایران
4 - ریاست دانشکده اقتصاد واحد تهران مرکزی
کلید واژه: نفت, شوک نفتی, محیط¬زیست,
چکیده مقاله :
میزان آلودگی محیط زیست می‌تواند از عوامل متعددی ناشی شود. این عوامل از نظر اهمیت و میزان تأثیر در وضعیت یکسانی قرار ندارند و الزاماً نمی‌توان همه آنها را با هم در یک موقعیت مکانی یا زمانی مشاهده کرد. از این‌رو هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر نامتقارن شوک¬های قیمت نفت بر تخریب محیط¬زیست برای کشورهای حاشیه خلیج فارس از سال 2000 تا 2022 است. در این مطالعه شوک¬های نفتی مثبت و منفی استخراج شده و سپس اثر آنها بر انتشار کربن مدلسازی شده¬است. در این راستا، نتایج نشان داده است که شوک¬های مثبت قیمت نفت تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر انتشار CO2 دارد. در حالی که شوک¬های منفی قیمت نفت تاثیر منفی و معناداری بر انتشار CO2 دارد. از این¬رو، این مطالعه می‌تواند به سیاست‌گذاران کمک کند تا سیاست های انرژی تجدیدپذیر را اتخاذ کنند و از فناوری‌های صرفه‌جویی در مصرف انرژی برای حفظ توسعه اقتصادی و بهبود کیفیت محیط¬زیست استفاده کنند.
Extended Abstract
Abstract
Objective: Environmental degradation is well-known as a result of the dynamic interaction between social, institutional, technological, and economic, especially fluctuations in energy prices. Environmental degradation is a worldwide issue in which carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are a significant cause of global temperature increase. CO2 has been used consistently as an indication of environmental degradation, with implications for air pollution, global warming and is responsible for climate change. CO2 emissions have been included in this study as an indicator of the environmental degradation that may result from oil price shocks, especially in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which depends heavily on non-renewable sources such as oil.
Oil prices are viewed as a major contributor to increased economic growth and energy consumption at the expense of environmental quality in the literature. Due to environmental quality challenges and climate change, oil price shocks continue to be a major source of concern for policymakers. Additionally, positive and negative oil price shocks may lead to an increase or decrease in CO2 emissions. For instance, higher oil prices can reduce CO2 emissions. Low oil prices may result in greater usage of fossil fuels, which exacerbate their negative effects on the environment by increasing CO2 emissions.
Policymakers and researchers pay close attention to the relationship between oil price shocks and carbon emissions in order to minimize CO2 emissions without impacting economic growth. Oil price shocks and their impact on CO2 emissions are an intriguing subject requiring further investigations, especially in light of two extreme situations seen in the past decade, namely the peak in oil prices in 2008 and the continuous drop in crude oil prices since 2014. The present study focuses on GCC countries such as Iran, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as they are at the forefront of this problem. Therefore, these countries are seen as a suitable sample with respect to their significant contribution to CO2 emissions.
Methodology
the present study employs a panel data approach to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on CO2 emissions. First, the structural shocks in the oil market will be identified using the SVAR-GARCH approach, and then the model best fitting the panel data approach will be estimated. Therefore, the regression model derived from this theory will incorporate carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), gross domestic product (GDP), energy use (EU), positive oil price shocks (OIL-POS), and negative oil price shocks (OIL-NEG) as variables.
Findings
In this section, the panel data approach will be used to estimate the research model with respect to the extracted positive and negative oil price shocks. The findings of the research model estimation indicate that GDP has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions, while quadratic GDP has a significant negative impact on CO2 emissions, confirming the Kuznets hypothesis. The findings also show that per capita EU has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions. Finally, the results presented in the table below indicate that positive oil price shocks have a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions, while negative oil price shocks have a significant negative impact on CO2 emissions.
Conclusion
The findings of the present study are consistent with those of Malik et al. (2020) for Pakistan, Shahbaz et al. (2017) for Australia, and Omar et al. (2020) for African countries. These findings support those of Haque (2020), who discovered that raising oil prices leads to a drop in energy use by up to 0.22%, while higher energy use leads to increased CO2 emissions in GCC countries. This conclusion is also consistent with Malik et al. (2020), who found that in the long-run relationship between oil prices and CO2 emissions, oil price increase (negligible positive oil price shock) leads to a drop in CO2 emissions, while oil price decrease (negligible negative oil price shock) will raise CO2 emissions.
On the other hand, the impact of negative oil price shocks on CO2 emissions in GCC countries indicates that negative oil price shocks have significant impacts on CO2 emissions. In other words, the impact of oil price decrease on pollution is larger than the impact of increases. This is consistent with the findings of Marquez and Fuinhas (2011), who argued that prices of fossil-based fuels are not significant tools for mitigating carbon emissions. Similar findings reported by Sun et al (2019). reveal that energy price does not matter in predicting changes in CO2 emission in China. They suggested that oil prices are not suitable tools to encourage the consumption of renewable energy sources. Based on these findings, governments of GCC countries may prioritize clean and green economic growth by maintaining oil prices as low as possible, which would be more effective in terms of environmental sustainability. The environmental degradation issues in these countries cannot be addressed systematically solely through economic growth.
#Abumunshar, M., Aga, M., and Samour, A. (2020). Oil Price, Energy Consumption, and CO2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence #from a Bootstrap ARDL Test. Energies 13, 5588. doi:10.3390/en13215588
#Agbanike, T. F., Nwani, C., Uwazie, U. I., Anochiwa, L. I., Onoja, T. G. C., and Ogbonnaya, I. O. (2019). Oil Price, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Emissions: Insight into Sustainability Challenges in Venezuela. Lat. Am. Econ. Rev. 28 #(1), 1–26. doi:10.1186/s40503-019-0070-8
#Aljadani, A., Toumi, H., Toumi, S., Hsini, M., and Jallali, B. (2021). Investigation of the N-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve #for COVID-19 Mitigation in the KSA. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 28, 29681–29700. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-12713-3
#Anser, M. K., Syed, Q. R., Lean, H. H., Alola, A. A., and Ahmad, M. (2021). Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk #Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies. Sustainability 13 (11), 5866. doi:10.3390/su13115866
#Apergis, N., and Gangopadhyay, P. (2020). The Asymmetric Relationships between Pollution, Energy Use and Oil Prices in Vietnam: Some Behavioural Implications for Energy Policy-Making. Energy Policy 140, 111,430–111,442. #doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111430
#Ari, I., and Şentürk, H. (2020). The Relationship between GDP and Methane Emissions from Solid Waste: A Panel Data Analysis #for the G7. Sustain. Prod. Consum. 23, 282–290. doi:10.1016/j.spc.2020.06.004
#Balaguer, J., and Cantavella, M. (2015). Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Spain by Considering Fuel Oil Prices. #Ecol. Indic. 60, 853–859.
#Bilgili, F., Mugaloglu, E., and Koçak, E. (2020). “The Impact of Oil Prices on CO2 Emissions in China: a Wavelet Coherence #Approach,” in Econometrics of Green Energy Handbook, 31–57. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46847-7_2
#Boufateh, T. (2019). The Environmental Kuznets Curve by Considering Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Top #Two. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 26 (1), 706–720. doi:10.1007/s11356-018-3641-3
#@Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., and Raissi, M. (2014). The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global #Economy. Energy Econ. 44, 113–134. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.014
#Chaudhry, I. S., Azali, M., Faheem, M., and Ali, S. (2020). Asymmetric Dynamics of Oil Price and Environmental Degradation: #Evidence from Pakistan. Reads 6 (1), 1–12. doi:10.47067/reads.v6i1.179
#Chen, L. J., and Lin, Y. L. (2015). Does Air Pollution Respond to Petroleum Price. Int. J. Appl. Econ 12, 104–125.#
#Constantinos, K., Eleni, Z., Nikolaos, S., and Bantis, D. (2019). Greenhouse Gas Emissions-Crude Oil Prices: an Empirical #Investigation in a Nonlinear Framework. Environ. Dev. Sustain 21 (6), 2835–2856. doi:10.1007/s10668-018-0163-6
#Dong, K., Sun, R., Hochman, G., Zeng, X., Li, H., and Jiang, H. (2017). Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on CO2 Emissions: #Panel Data Evidence from China's Provinces. J. Clean. Prod. 162, 400–410. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.06.100
#Eliaspour Behnam, Nikoqadam Massoud, Sanjari Kanasandal Narges. (2022). Investigating the asymmetric effect of oil price and foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran: Evidence from the NARDL approach. Quarterly Journal of #Energy Economics Studies, 18 (75), 83-116(in Persian)
#Emami, Karim, Shahriari, Samaneh, and Darbani, Samaneh. (2011). The effect of oil shocks on the economic growth of some oil #importing and exporting countries. Financial Economics, 5(16), 27-62.(in Persian)
#Hammoudeh, S., Mensi, W., Reboredo, J. C., and Nguyen, D. K. (2014). Dynamic Dependence of the Global Islamic Equity Index with Global Conventional Equity Market Indices and Risk Factors. Pacific-Basin Finance J. 30, 189–206. #doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.10.001
#Haque, M. I. (2020). Negating the Role of Institutions in the Long Run Growth of an Oil Producing Country. Ijeep 10 (5), 503–509. #doi:10.32479/ijeep.9870
#He, J., and Richard, P. (2010). Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in Canada. Ecol. Econ. 69 (5), 1083–1093. #doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.030
#Kilian, L. and D.P. Murphy. (2014). The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil. Journal #of Applied Econometrics, 29(3):454–478, 2014.
#Kilian, L., and Stock, J. H. (2015). Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand John Coglianese #Lucas W. Davis. Ann Arbor 1001, 48109.
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. Am. Econ. Rev. 45, 1–28.#
Li, K., Fang, L., and He, L. (2020). The Impact of Energy Price on CO2 Emissions in China: a Spatial Econometric Analysis. Sci. #Total Environ. 706, 135942. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135942
#Lin, B., and Jia, Z. (2019). Impacts of Carbon Price Level in Carbon Emission Trading Market. Appl. Energy 239, 157–170. #\doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.194
#Mahmood, H., Adow, A. H., Abbas, M., Iqbal, A., Murshed, M., and Furqan, M. (2022). The Fiscal and Monetary Policies and Environment in GCC Countries: Analysis of Territory and Consumption-Based CO2 Emissions. Sustainability 14 (3), 1225. #doi:10.3390/su14031225
#Mahmood, H., Alkhateeb, T. T. Y., and Furqan, M. (2020). Oil Sector and CO2 Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Asymmetry Analysis. #Palgrave Commun. 6, 88. doi:10.1057/s41599-020-0470-z
#Maji, I. K., Habibullah, M. S., Saari, M. Y., and Abdul-Rahim, A. S. (2017). The Nexus between Energy Price Changes and #Environmental Quality in Malaysia. Energy Sources, Part B Econ. Plan. Policy 12 (10), 903–909. doi:10.1080/15567249.2017.1323052
#Malik, M. Y., Latif, K., Khan, Z., Butt, H. D., Hussain, M., and Nadeem, M. A. (2020). Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price, FDI and Economic Growth on Carbon Emission in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL and Non-linear ARDL Approach. Sci. #Total Environ. 726, 138421. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138421
#Marques, A. C., and Fuinhas, J. A. (2011). Drivers Promoting Renewable Energy: A Dynamic Panel Approach. Renew. Sustain. #Energy Rev. 15 (3), 1601–1608. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2010.11.048
Mensah, I. A., Sun, M., Gao, C., Omari-Sasu, A. Y., Zhu, D., Ampimah, B. C., et al. (2019). Analysis on the Nexus of Economic# Growth, Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Oil Price in Africa Based on a PMG Panel ARDL Approach. J. Clean. #Prod. 228, 161–174. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.281
#Moderi, Hamidreza, Daman-Kashideh, Marjan. (2023). Asymmetric oil price shocks, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market #and business cycles in oil exporting economies. Financial Economics, 64(17), 187-206(in Persian)
#Murshed, M. (2020). An Empirical Analysis of the Non-linear Impacts of ICT-Trade Openness on Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Efficiency, Clean Cooking Fuel Access and Environmental Sustainability in South Asia. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. #doi:10.1007/s11356-020-09497-3
#Murshed,M.(2021). LPG Consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in South Asia: a Time-Series ARDL Analysi #with Multiple Structural Breaks. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 28, 8337–8372. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-10701-7
#Nwani, C. (2017). Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in #Ecuador. OPEC Energy Rev. 41 (3), 201–225. doi:10.1111/opec.12102
#Saboori, B., Al-mulali, U., Bin Baba, M., and Mohammed, A. H. (2016). Oil-induced Environmental Kuznets Curve in #Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Int. J. Green Energy 13 (4), 408–416. doi:10.1080/15435075.2014.961468
#Shahbaz, M., Bhattacharya, M., and Ahmed, K. (2017). CO2emissions in Australia: Economic and Non-economic Drivers in the #Long-Run. Appl. Econ. 49 (13), 1273–1286. doi:10.1080/00036846.2016.1217306
#Sun, C., Ding, D., Fang, X., Zhang, H., and Li, J. (2019). How Do Fossil Energy Prices Affect the Stock Prices of New Energy #Companies? Evidence from Divisia Energy Price Index in China's Market. Energy 169, 637–645. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.032
#Ullah, S., Chishti, M. Z., and Majeed, M. T. (2020). The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on Environmental Pollution: #Evidence from the Top Ten Carbon Emitters. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 27, 29623–29635. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-09264-4
#Umar, B., Alam, M. M., and Al-Amin, A. Q. (2020). Exploring the Contribution of Energy Price to Carbon Emissions in African #Countries. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 28 (63). doi:10.1007/s11356-020-10641-2
#Usman, M., Hayat, N., and Bhutta, M. M. A. (2020). SI Engine Fueled with Gasoline, CNG and CNG-HHO Blend: Comparative #Evaluation of Performance, Emission and Lubrication Oil Deterioration. J. Therm. Sci., 1–13. doi:10.1007/s11630-020-1268-4
#Wang,Q., and Li, R. (2016). Impact of Cheaper Oil on Economic System and Climate Change: A SWOT Analysis. Renew. Sustain. #Energy Rev. 54, 925–931. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.087
#Wang, X., Bai, M., and Xie, C. (2019). Investigating CO2 Mitigation Potentials and the Impact of Oil Price Distortion in China's #Transport Sector. Energy Policy 130, 320–327. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.003
#Waqih, M. A. U., Bhutto, N. A., Ghumro, N. H., Kumar, S., and Salam, M. A. (2019). Rising Environmental Degradation and Impact of Foreign Direct Investment: an Empirical Evidence from SAARC Region. J. Environ. Manag. 243, 472–480. #doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.001
#Zaghdoudi, T. (2017). Internet Usage, Renewable Energy, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from #Developed Countries. Econ. Bull. Access Econ. 37 (3), 1612–1619.
#Zain al-Dini, Shabnam, Sharif Karimi, Mohammad, Khanzadi, Azad (2019). Investigating the effect of oil price shocks on the #performance of the Iranian stock market. Financial Economics, 50(14), 145-170(in Persian)
#Zhang, S., Hu, T., Li, J., Cheng, C., Song, M., Xu, B., et al. (2019). The Effects of Energy Price, Technology, and Disaster Shocks on #China's Energy-Environment-Economy System. J. Clean. Prod. 207, 204–213. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.09.256