بررسی تاثیر نوسانات ویژه سهام و نوسانات جریان های نقدی بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت مالی بنگاه‌های اقتصادیرحمان ساعدی 1 * , محسن دستگیر 2 , ریحانه محمدی 3
1 - عضو هیات علمی رشته حسابداری ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)،اصفهان،ایران
2 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
3 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)
کلید واژه: ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام, نوسانات جریان های نقدی , نوسانات ویژه سهام,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: سقوط قیمت سهام منجر به پیامدهای منفی جدی برای شرکت می شود، مانند زیان های عظیم در ثروت شرکت ها و بحران اعتماد در بین سرمایه گذاران. بنابراین، مدیران باید ریسک سقوط را در تصمیم گیری خود در نظر بگیرند تا از حوادث سقوط سهام جلوگیری کنند. بنابراین، بررسی عوامل تعیین کننده سقوط قیمت سهام برای تصمیم گیری های سرمایه گذاری و مدیریت ریسک مفید است. از جمله عوامل موثر بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام می¬توان به نوسانات ویژه سهام و نوسانات جریان های نقدی اشاره کرد. از این رو در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تاثیر نوسانات ویژه سهام و نوسانات جریان های نقدی بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام پرداخته شده است. روش شناسی پژوهش: جامعه آماری این پژوهش شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و نمونه آماری آن شامل داده های 105 شرکت برای دوره 8 ساله 1393-1400 است. روش نمونه گیری، روش حذفی سیستماتیک بوده است. روش مورد استفاده جهت برآورد الگو روش رگرسیون چند متغیره به روش داده های ترکیبی می-باشد. یافته ها: نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که نوسانات ویژه سهام تاثیر معناداری بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد نوسانات جریان های نقدی تاثیر معناداری بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام دارد. اصالت / ارزش افزوده علمی: نتایج این پژوهش تاثیر نوسانات ویژه سهام و نوسانات جریان های نقدی بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام را مشخص می کند.
Purpose: Stock price crash risk lead to serious negative consequences for the company, such as huge losses in corporate wealth and a crisis of confidence among investors. Therefore, managers should consider the stock price crash risk in their decision-making to avoid stock fall incidents. Therefore, investigating the determinants of stock price falls is useful for investment decisions and risk management. Among the factors affecting the risk of the future stock price crash risk, we can mention special stock fluctuations and cash flow fluctuations. Therefore, in the current research, the impact of specific stock fluctuations and cash flow fluctuations on the risk of future stock price crash risk has been investigated. Research methodology: The statistical population of this research is the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange and its statistical sample includes the data of 105 companies for the 8-year period of 1393-1400. The sampling method was systematic elimination method. The method used to estimate the model is the multivariate regression method using the combined data method. Findings: The results of the research showed that stock volatility has a significant impact on the risk of future stock price fall. Also, the results showed that the fluctuations of cash flows have a significant effect on the risk of future fall in stock prices. Originality/scientific added value: The results of this research determine the impact of specific stock fluctuations and cash flow fluctuations on the future stock price crash risk.
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