بررسی اثر بازده‌های درک‌شده گذشته بر سرمایه‌گذاری در سهام پرریسک با درنظر‌گرفتن نقش میانجی‌گری اثر شترمرغ

محورهای موضوعی : سرمایه‌گذاری

محمدمهدی امینی‌زاده ¹ , احمد خدامی‌پور ² , امید پورحیدری ³

1 - گروه حسابداری، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران.
2 - گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.
3 - گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/08/17 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/01/25 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/03/15

کلید واژه: اثر شترمرغ, بازده‌های درک‌شده گذشته, سرمایه‌گذاری در سهام پرریسک,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف: بحران‌های مالی اخیر و پیامد‌های آن، پرسش‌هایی را دررابطه‌با رفتارهای پر‌خطر و عواملی که باعث تغییرات در ریسک‌پذیری افراد می‌شود ایجاد می‌کند؛ بنابراین شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر تصمیمات سرمایه‌گذاری پرریسک و نقش پدیده‌های روان‌شناختی بر رفتار معاملاتی سرمایه‌گذاران در بازار سرمایه بسیار حائز اهمیت است. ازاین‌رو باتوجه‌به اهمیت این مسئله، در این پژوهش به بررسی تجربی نقش میانجی‌گری اثر شترمرغ بر توضیح رابطه بین بازده‌های درک‌شده گذشته و سرمایه‌گذاری در سهام پرریسک پرداخته شده است. روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش پیش رو از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر راهبرد و نحوه جمع‌آوری و تحلیل اطلاعات پیمایشی - توصیفی است. به همین منظور تعداد 432 پرسش‌نامه در بهار سال 1402 بین سرمایه‌گذاران توزیع و از این تعداد 396 پرسش‌نامه مورد پذیرش قرار گرفت. تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از مدل معادلات ساختاری در نرم‌افزار آماری آیموس و به روش برآورد حداکثر درست‌نمایی صورت گرفت. یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بازده درک‌شده گذشته بر سرمایه‌گذاری در سهام پر‌ریسک و اثر شترمرغ تأثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد. همچنین اثر شترمرغ بر سرمایه‌گذاری در سهام پرریسک اثر مثبت و معناداری می‌گذارد. به‌صورت کلی یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در رابطه بین بازده درک‌شده گذشته و سرمایه‌گذاری در سهام پرریسک، متغیر اثر شترمرغ نقش میانجی را ایفا می‌کند. اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: نتایج نشان داد که عمدتاً سرمایه‌گذاران تحت‌تأثیر باورهای ذهنی از تجربیات گذشته و تعصبات رفتاری که یک انحراف بالقوه از تصمیم‌گیری منطقی به نظر می‌رسد، تصمیمات سرمایه‌گذاری خود را اتخاذ می‌کنند که نتیجه آن خطر سقوط قیمت سهام و در نهایت بازدهی کمتر را برای سرمایه‌گذاران به دنبال خواهد داشت.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Purpose: Recent financial crises and their consequences raise questions about high-risk behaviors and factors that cause changes in individuals' risk-taking. Therefore, understanding the factors affecting high-risk investment decisions and the role of psychological phenomena on investors' trading behavior in the capital market is very important. Given the importance of this issue, this study empirically examines the mediating role of the ostrich effect in explaining the relationship between perceived past returns and investment in high-risk stocks. Research Methodology: The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of strategy and method of data collection and analysis. For this purpose, 432 questionnaires were distributed among investors in the spring of 2023, of which 396 questionnaires were accepted. Data analysis was performed using structural equation modeling in AMOS statistical software using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Findings: The results show that perceived past returns have a positive and significant effect on investment in high-risk stocks and the ostrich effect. Also, the ostrich effect has a positive and significant effect on investment in high-risk stocks. Overall, the findings indicate that in the relationship between perceived past returns and investment in high-risk stocks, the ostrich effect variable plays a mediating role. Originality/Scientific Value Added: The results showed that investors mainly make their investment decisions under the influence of subjective beliefs from past experiences and behavioral biases, which appear to be a potential deviation from rational decision-making. This results in the risk of stock price decline and ultimately lower returns for investors.

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