طراحی الگوی تورش رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران با تحلیل تم و رویکرد ساختاری تفسیری - دلفی فازی

محورهای موضوعی : سرمایه‌گذاری

آرزو جباری خوزانی ¹ , اله کرم صالحی ² , احمد کعب عمیر ³ , سهیلا زرین جوی الوار ⁴

1 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.
2 - گروه حسابداری، واحد مسجدسلیمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مسجدسلیمان، ایران.
3 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.
4 - گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، واحد آبادان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، آبادان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1401/05/08 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/09/20 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/10/01

کلید واژه: دلفی فازی, تحلیل مضمون, تورش‌های رفتاری, رویکرد ساختاری تفسیری,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف: هدف پژوهش حاضر طراحی الگوی تورش رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران با تحلیل تم و رویکرد ساختاری تفسیری - دلفی فازی می‌باشد.روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش حاضر در زمره پژوهش‌های آمیخته با رویکرد کیفی و کمی است که در بازه زمانی 1399 الی 1400 انجام شده است و از نظر هدف، اکتشافی و از حیث ماهیت و روش‌شناسی، توصیفی پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش را مدیران و کارشناسان در حوزه بازار سرمایه و خبرگان دانشگاهی تشکیل می‌دهند که با استفاده از اصل کفایت نظری و روش نمونه‌گیری گلوله‌برفی 16 نفر از آنان به‌عنوان اعضای نمونه انتخاب گردید. در بخش کیفی پژوهش از روش تحلیل مضمون (تم) برای شناسایی عوامل اثرگذار بر تورش رفتاری استفاده گردید و برای جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختاریافته (عمیق) بهره گرفته شد. همچنین در بخش کمی برای گردآوری اطلاعات از پرسش‌نامه و برای تعیین اثرگذارترین مؤلفه‌ها، از تحلیل ساختاری تفسیری و تحلیل میک‌مک استفاده شده است.یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها در بخش کیفی با استفاده از تحلیل مضمون نشان داد که عوامل مؤثر بر تورش رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران در ایران متشکل از ویژگی‌های شخصیتی، دام‌های ادراکی و رفتاری، نقشه سفر مشتری، ظهور ذهن جمعی، نظریه رفتار مکاشفه‌ای، نظریه چشم‌انداز، نظریه بازار و ناهماهنگی شناختی ‌می‌باشد.اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: نتایج پژوهش مشتمل بر شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی مهم‌ترین عوامل اثرگذار بر تورش رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران است که درنهایت 8 مؤلفه اصلی و 33 مضمون تعیین‌کننده از نظر خبرگان شناسایی شد که می‌تواند برای شفاف‌سازی تصمیم‌گیری‌های سرمایه‌گذاران، تحلیل بهتر و بهبود کارایی بازار سرمایه مورداستفاده قرار گیرد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Purpose: The purpose of the current research is to design the behavioral bias pattern of investors with theme analysis and fuzzy interpretative-Delphi structural approach.Methodology: This research is one of the mixed researches with qualitative and quantitative approach that was carried out in the period of 2020-2021. The statistical population of the research consists of managers and experts in the field of capital market and academic experts, and 16 of them were selected as sample members using the principle of theoretical adequacy and the snowball sampling method. In the qualitative part of the research, the method of theme analysis was used to identify the influencing factors on behavioral bias and to collect data, a semi-structured (in-depth) interview was used. Also, in the quantitative section, a questionnaire was used to collect information, and interpretive structural analysis and MICMAC analysis were used to determine the most effective components.Findings: The findings in the qualitative part using thematic analysis showed that the factors affecting the behavior biases of investors in Iran is consist of personality traits, perceptual and behavioral traps, customer journey map, emergence of collective mind, revelatory behavior theory, perspective theory, market theory and cognitive alignment.Originality / Value: The results of the research include the identification and prioritization of the most important factors influencing the behavior of investors, and finally, 8 main components and 33 determining themes were identified according to experts, which can be used to clarify the investors decisions, better analyze and improve the capital market efficiency.

منابع و مأخذ:

Ali Akbari, E; Akbari, M. (2016). Interpretive-Structural Modeling of the Factors that Affect the Viability of Tehran Metropolis. Space planning and preparation, 21 (1), 1-31. [In Persian]

Asiyabi Agdam, L; Rahimzadeh, A; Falihi, N; Rajaei, Y. (2021). Selection of stock asset portfolio based on behavioral economics method: A Case Study of Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Economics, 15(55), 155-190. [In Persian]

Bashirimanesh, N; Shahnazi, H. (2022). The Impact of Investor and Managers' Behavioral Bias on the Stock Price Bubble in capital market of Iran. Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 15(53), 15-32. [In Persian]

Braun, V; Clarke, V. (2006). Using Thematic Analysis in Psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101.

Fang, Y; Yuan, J; Yang, J. J; Ying, S. (2022). Crash-based quantitative trading strategies: Perspective of behavioral finance. Finance Research Letters, 45, 102185.

Faraziani, F. (2019). Developing a Model of Behavioral Biases of Sport Investors in Kermanshah Province. Organizational Behavior Management in Sport Studies, 5(4), 45-52. [In Persian]

Farhadi Sharif Abad, M; Doaei, M. (2022). Modeling investor tendencies with emphasis on psychological factors by fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL methods. Advances in Finance and Investment, 2(5), 144-113. [In Persian]

Heydarifar, M; Keyghobadi, A. (2018). The effect of investor's overconfidence on the disposition effect of Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Economics, 12(44), 123-142. [In Persian]

Hosseini Chegeni, E; Haghgoo, B; Rahmaninejad, L. (2014). Studying the Relationship between Behavioral Biases of Investors and Their Investment Decisions in Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Management Strategy, 2(4), 113-133. [In Persian]

Jafari, K; Azadi Hir, K; Fadaei, M. (2021). Provide a model for identifying factors affecting audit quality Using Delphi method and fuzzy logic. Journal of Management Accounting and Auditing Knowledge, 10(38), 269-284. [In Persian]

Jain, J; Walia, N; Gupta, S. (2020). Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision making of individual equity investors by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, Review of Behavioral Finance, 12(3), 297-314.  

Kahneman, D; Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.

Kamranrad, S; Darabi, R; Emamverdi, G; Jafari, M. (2019). Role of Accounting Information Quality in Recency Bias in Investors’ Behavior. Journal of Accounting Knowledge, 10(4), 29-62. [In Persian]

Kartini, K; Katiya, N. (2021). Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision: A Case Study in Indonesia. Journal of Asian Finance, 8(3), 1231–1240.

Kiameher, A; Janani, M; Hematfar, M. (2020). Explain the role of stock market anomalies in the pricing of capital assets. Financial Economics, 14(53), 193-212. [In Persian]

Lebdaoui, H; Chetioui, Y; Guechi, E. (2021). The Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Performance: Does Financial Literacy Matter? International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 11(3), 13–21.

Lopes, L. L; Oden, G. C. (1999). The Role of Aspiration Level in Risky Choice: A Comparison of Cumulative Prospect Theory and SP/A Theory. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 43(2), 286–313.

Lune, H; Berg, B. L. (2017). Qualitative research methods for the social sciences (9th edition ed), London, Pearson Education.

Nazari Fahndari, A. (2020). The effect of psychological characteristics on the trading volume of investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange, the Second International Conference on Innovation in Business and Economic Management, Tehran, [In Persian]

Pakdelan, S; vadeei, M. H; Azarbrahman, A; Salim, S. (2020). Investigating the Relationship between herding Behavior Bias and Value of Companies in the Chemical Products Industry of Tehran Stock Exchange. Advances in Finance and Investment, 1(1), 19-36. [In Persian]

Pashootanizadeh, H; Khamehchi, H. (2022). Identification and Prioritization of Dominant Behavioral Biases in Tehran Stock Exchange. Commercial Surveys, 20(114), 115-134. [In Persian]

Qaledare, S; Shiri, A; Khalili, K; Yasini, A; Esmaelikia, Q. (2020). Identifying the factors affecting the formation of mass behavior of Tehran Stock Exchange investors. Journal of Development & Evolution Mnagement, 1399(42), 47-56. [In Persian]

Rahnamay Roodposhti, F; Tajmir Riahi, H. (2014). Modeling the Impact of Behavioral Bias on Capital Market Stagnation Based on Interpretive Structural Approach. Journal of Financial Engineering and Securities Management, 5(19), 111-130. [In Persian]

Rahnemay Roodposhti, F; Salehi, A. (2021). Schools and Theories of Finance and Accounting, Third Edition, Islamic Azad University Press, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran. [In Persian]

Rakesh, H. M; Nalina, K. B. (2017). Individual Investors’ Behavior: A Review of Indian Empirical Evidences, International Journal of Advancement in Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Science, 5(1), 213-223.

Raki, M; Mehrara, M; Abasinejad, H; Souri, A. (2020). Modeling the Effect of Loss Averse Bias on Return Rate and Stock Price Dynamics (Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Behavioral Finance). Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 13(45), 165-180. [In Persian]

Ravi, V; Shankar, R. (2005). Analysis of interactions among the barriers of reverse logistics. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(8), 1011–1029.

Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral finance. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11(4), 429–437.

Saedi, A; Mousavi, S. N; Ahang, F. (2021). Political Entrepreneurship: The Analysis of Its Implications Area to Policy Making. Journal of Public Administration, 12(4), 674-694. [In Persian]

Saivasan, R; Lokhande, M. (2022). Influence of risk propensity, behavioural biases and demographic factors on equity investors’ risk perception. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking.

Samson, A; Voyer, B. G. (2014). Emergency purchasing situations: Implications for consumer decision-making. Journal of Economic Psychology, 44, 21–33.

Seifollahi, R; Kordlouie, H; Dashti, N. (2015). A comparative survey on behavioral factors on financial assets investment. Journal of Investment Knowledge, 4(15), 33-52. [In Persian]

Shefrin, H; Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral Portfolio Theory. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(2), 127-151.

Shoja, A; Sadegh Vaziri, F; Ebrahimi, E. (2020). Developing a Framework of Causes and Consequences of Hatred for Iranian Product Brands. Journal of Business Management, 12(1), 3-23. [In Persian]

Simon, H. (1972) Theories of Bounded Rationality. In McGuire, C.B. and Radner, R; Eds; Decision and Organization. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 161-176.

Tabatabaee Hakim, S. M; Garkaz, M; Abdoli, M. (2022). Presenting the model of the effect of behavioral bias on reliance and adjustment on the judgment of Tehran Stock Exchange auditors. Journal of Islamic Economics and Banking, 11 (38), 343-388. [In Persian]

Tajmir Riahi, H; Dejdar, M.M. (2017). Ranking of Behavioral Biases of Investors in the Face of political News and Rumors, emphasis on the era of Nuclear Talks. Investment Knowledge, 6 (24), 1-20. [In Persian]

Tran, Q. N. (2017). The Behavior Patterns of Investors in Thailand Stock Market. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 9(1), 155-165.

Wang, W; Duxbury, D. (2021). Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 191, 415–441.

Wilde, G. J. S. (1998). Risk homeostasis theory: an overview. Injury Prevention, 4(2), 89–91.

Zhu, B; Niu, F. (2016). Investor sentiment, accounting information and stock price: Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 38, 125–134.