طراحی سیستم پیش بینی آگاهانه مبتنی بر سواد آینده: برساخت گرایی اجتماعی در ورزش همگانی
محورهای موضوعی : مطالعات آینده نگاری راهبردی در ورزشجواد شهولی کوه شوری 1 , حدیثه بهرامی 2
1 - گروه تربیت بدنی، واحد مبارکه،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مبارکه، ایران.
2 - گروه مدیریت ورزشی، دانشکده تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: طراحی سیستم, سواد آینده, ورزش همگانی, برساخت‌گرایی اجتماعی, پیش‌بینی آگاهانه,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: سواد آینده یا آینده‌ها، گمشده ارزشمند مطالعات آینده‌پژوهی در ورزش است. از این رو هدف مطالعۀ حاضر، طراحی یک سیستم کلی پیش‌بینی آگاهانه مبتنی بر سواد آینده است که در این مطالعه به طور خاص بر روی ورزش همگانی آزمایش گردید.روش‌شناسی: این پژوهش کیفی که ماهیتی اکتشافی- بنیادی دارد، با تمرکز بر برساخت‌گرایی اجتماعی و با استفاده از رویکرد ساختگرای نظریۀ مبنایی، نظریه‌ای با برد کوتاه در پیش‌بینی آگاهانه مبتنی بر سواد آینده ارائه می‌دهد. داده‌های پژوهش از طریق نمونه‌گیری هدفمند با تکنیک گلوله برفی و بر اساس مصاحبه‌های عمیق نیمه ساختاریافته با خبرگان حوزه آینده‌پژوهی و مدیریت ورزشی جمع‌آوری شد. شمار مشارکت‌کنندگان در پژوهش با استفاده از شاخص اشباع نظری به 14 نفر رسید. یافته‌ها: در این مطالعه، مدلی چند بخشی، متشکل از مولفه‌های اصلی فرآیندهای پشتیبان، فرآیندهای اصلی، تصاویر آینده، سواد آینده و رویکردها به دست آمد. در این مدل مشخص شد که سواد آینده که خود به معنی رمزگذاری و رمزگشایی تصاویر آینده است، می‌تواند با استفاده از پتاسنیل‌های زمان حال و فرآیندهای موجود، پیش‌بینی آگاهانه‌ای نسبت به آینده مورد نظر ورزش همگانی داشته باشد.نتیجه‌گیری: سیستم موجود، فراسوی دیدگاه‌های مرسوم در آینده پژوهی، می‌تواند نقطه آغازی برای مدلسازی پیش‌بینی‌های آگاهانه در ورزش باشد.
Objective: Objective: After explaining the relationship between constraints and future research, one of the things that are effective in predicting or even making future in all areas is future literacy. It can be acknowledged that future literacy is a scientific skill that develops a better understanding of the predicted assumptions. Future literacy or future is an educational framework that makes it possible to visualize the approaches for the future.Health-centric exercise or sports for all are sports activities that are followed by the vitality of joy and health at the level of different societies. Future or lost literacy is a valuable futures study in sports. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to design a general informed forecasting system based on future literacy, which in this study was specifically tested on public sports.Methodology: This qualitative research, which is exploratory-fundamental in nature, with a focus on social constructivism and using the constructivist approach of the basic theory, presents a short-range theory in conscious forecasting based on future literacy. Research data were collected through purposive sampling using snowball technique and based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of futures, research and sports management. The number of participants in the study using the theoretical saturation index reached 14 people.In this study, data were coded and decomposed according to the field theory and with the construction approach. Instead of emphasizing the collection of facts and describing the actions, this approach emphasizes views, values, beliefs, feelings, defaults and ideologies of individuals. At the same time, interviews and receive feedback from interviewees during return to existing texts and documents, initial implications and codes were modified and modified. In this research, in all sampling process, three stages of free, communication and theoretical sampling stages were observed in the basis of the use of the construction approach of data theorem.Results: In this study, a multi-part model consisting of the main components of support processes, main processes, future images, future literacy and approaches was obtained. In this model, it was found that future literacy, which means encoding and decoding future images, can make conscious predictions about the future of public sports by using present-day potentials and existing processes.Conclusion: The arbitrary theory acknowledges that future literacy, which is an accessible skill based on human intrinsic capacity, can be based on current time potentials such as the main processes, such as identifying weak signals, surprises, macro trends, propulsion forces, uncertainties, design Strategic radar, based on environmental scanning and backup processes, such as inter-surface participation, key actor analysis, perspective, planning, entirely, cramps, and reengineering, make upcoming images; The upcoming literacy by decoding or coding these images based on the empowerment loop, which consists of four elements of awareness of the past and present, choosing and participating in the present and discovering in the coming time, provide information for different future.The existing system, beyond the conventional views in futures studies, can be a starting point for modeling informed predictions in sports.
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