• الصفحة الرئيسية
  • تحلیل تأثیر رشد شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری زمین در شهر تهران با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم

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رقم المقالة : JSS-2301-1529 (R1) زيارة : 151 الصفحة: 171 - 196

10.30495/jss.2023.1976548.1529

نوع المخطوط: ابحاث

تحلیل تأثیر رشد شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری زمین در شهر تهران با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم

الموضوعات :

لیلا نصرالهی وسطی 1 (استادیار گروه علوم اجتماعی- جامعه شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات، علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران ..Leila.nasrolahi@srbiau.ac.ir)
محمدرضا جلیلوند 2 (استادیار، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکدگان فارابی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران ایران (نویسنده مسول) Email: rezajalilvand@ut.ac.ir)

تاريخ الإرسال : 08 الأحد , جمادى الثانية, 1444 تاريخ التأكيد : 13 الأحد , شعبان, 1444 تاريخ الإصدار : 02 الإثنين , ذو القعدة, 1444

الکلمات المفتاحية: شهرنشینی, کاربری زمین, برنامه ریزی شهری, مدلسازی, رویکرد سیستمی,

ملخص المقالة :

شهرنشینی سریع منجر به تغییر در کاربری زمین در مناطق شهری شده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری در شهر تهران با استفاده از تفکر سیستمی است تا بتوان به درک بهتری از پیامدهای شهرنشینی دست یافت. شهر یک سیستم پیچیده، باز، و پویا است که بررسی آن مستلزم یک رویکرد میان رشته ای می باشد. روش پویایی شناسی سیستم، این الزامات را برای پرداختن به شهر فراهم می آورد. لذا مدلی دینامیکی طراحی شد که با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم مورد ارزیابی کمی قرار گرفت. این مطالعه نشان داد که با افزایش جمعیت شهر تهران، کاربری زمین های کشاورزی و باز به تدریج تا سال 1404 تغییر کرده و پیش بینی می شود که زمین های با کاربری ساخت و ساز افزایش خواهد یافت.

المصادر:

Chen, J., Gao, J. & Chen, W. (2016a). Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China, Habitat International, 53, 274-283.

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  3. Dadashpour, H., Khairuddin, R., Yaqub Khani, M. & Chamani, B. (2013). Modeling Land Use Changes in Tehran Metropolis Using MOLAND Model, Regional Planning Quarterly, 4(16), P.p: 49-64.
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6.Gandhi, S.J., Gorod, A. & Sauser, B. (2011). A case study: the New York city yellow cab system of systems, 2011 6th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering: SoSE in Cloud Computing, Smart Grid, and Cyber Security, IEEE, Albuquerque, NM, June P.p: 27-30.

7.Grogan, P.T. and De Weck, O.L. (2013), An integrated modeling framework for infrastructure system-of-systems simulation, Systems Conference (SysCon), 2013 International, IEEE, Orlando, FL, April P.p: 15-18.

8.Hashempour, H., Zhang, X. & Skitmore, M. (2019). Implications for sustainable land use in high-density cities: Evidence from Hong Kong, Habitat International, 50, P.p: 23-34.

  1. Jang, M. & Kang, C. D. (2015). Urban greenway and compact land use development: A multilevel assessment in Seoul, South Korea, Landscape and Urban Planning, 143, P.p: 160-172.
    2.
  2. Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., & Shelley, M. K. (2004). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31(2), P.p: 251–271.
    3.
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12.Kasai, S., Li, N. & Fang, D. (2015). A system-of-systems approach to understanding urbanization-state of the art and prospect, Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, 4 (2), P.p: 154-171.

  1. Kaur, N., Mcleod, C.S., Jain, A., Harrison, R., Ahmad, B., Colombo, A.W. & Delsing, J. (2013). Design and Simulation of a SOA-based system of systems for automation in the residential sector, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology (ICIT), IEEE, Cape Town, February P.p: 25-28.
    2.
  2. Kheir, N. & Portnov, B. A. (2016). Economic, demographic and environmental factors affecting urban land prices in the Arab sector in Israel, Land Use Policy, 50, P.p: 518-527.
    3.
  3. Krekel, C., Kolbe, J. & Wüstemann, H. (2016). The greener, the happier? The effect of urban land use on residential well-being, Ecological Economics, 121, P.p: 117-127.
    4.
  4. Li, Z., Gurgel, H., Li, M., Dessay, N., & Gong, P. (2022). Urban Land Expansion from Scratch to Urban Agglomeration in the Federal District of Brazil in the Past 60 Years. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 19, P.p: 1032.
    5.
  5. Liu, Y., Luo, T., Liu, Z., Kong, X., Li, J. & Tan, R. (2015). A comparative analysis of urban and rural construction land use change and driving forces: Implications for urban-rural coordination development in Wuhan, Central China, Habitat International, 47, P.p: 113-125.
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19.Mirmiran, A. (2012). Housing in mega cities- a systems engineering approach, International Journal for Housing Science and Its Applications, 36(2), P.p: 83-87.

20.Mohammadi, A., Shafii T, N. & Shakiba, A. (2018). The effects of urban creep on land use change in the suburbs of Tehran metropolis (a case study of the Tehran-Damavand axis), Environmental Sciences Quarterly, 17(4) P.p: 1-26.

21.Munroe, D. K., McSweeney, K., Olson, J. L., & Mansfield, B. (2014). Using economic geography to reinvigorate land-change science. Geoforum, 52, P.p:  12-21.

22.Mushfaghi, V., Hakit Nayini, G, & Habibi, M. (2018). investigating the relationship between land use changes and land prices in Tehran city with an emphasis on the approvals of the Article Five Commission, Geography and Environmental Planning, 30(4), P.p:  1-18.

23.Nasrolahi Vosta, L. & Aghayri Heer, T. (2016). Dynamic analysis of population and its economic consequences using a systemic approach, Journal of Social Development, 11(3), P.p: 167-194.

24.Nath, B., Ni-Meister, W. & Choudhury, R. (2021). Impact of urbanization on land use and land cover change in Guwahati city, India and its implication on declining groundwater level, Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 12, P.p: 100500.

  1. Nuissl, H. & Siedentop, S. (2021). Urbanisation and Land Use Change. In: Weith, T., Barkmann, T., Gaasch, N., Rogga, S., Strauß, C., Zscheischler, J. (eds) Sustainable Land Management in a European Context. Human-Environment Interactions, 8, P.p: 136-181.
    2.
  2. Pourahmad, A. and Saif al-Dini, F. & Prenun, B. (2010). migration and land use change in Islamshahr city, geographical studies of dry areas, 2(5), P.p: 131-152.
    3.
  3. Ramaswami, A.,Weible, C.,Main, D., Heikkila, T., Siddiki, S., Duvall, A., Pattison, A. & Bernard,M. (2012). A social-ecological-infrastructural systems framework for interdisciplinary study of sustainable city systems, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 16 (6), P.p: 801-813.
    4.
  4. Rezaei Moghadam, A. (2013). investigating the impact of land use on the urban environment, the 6th National Conference on Urban Planning and Management with an emphasis on the components of the Islamic city, 21st and 22nd of November, Holy Mashhad.
    5.
  5. Shen, L. Y., Wu, Y. Z., Chan, E. H. W., & Hao, J. L. (2005). Application of system dynamics for assessment of sustainable performance of construction projects, Journal of Zhejiang University Science, 6 (4), P.p: 339-349.
    6.
  6. Sterman, J. D. (2000). A skeptic’s guide to computer models. Managing a nation: The microcomputer software catalog, 16( 2), P.p: 209-229.
    7.
  7. Tang, Y., Mason, R. J. & Wang, Y. (2015). Governments’ functions in the process of integrated consolidation and allocation of ruraleurban construction land in China, Journal of Rural Studies, 42, P.p: 43-51.
    8.
  8. Vahidian Biki, L., Pourahmad, A. & Saif al-Dini, F. (2011). the effect of physical development of Tehran city on land use change in region 5, new attitudes in human geography, 4(1), P.p: 29-47.
    9.
  9. Valerio, Q., Anna, B., Francesco, C., Diego, G., Dalila, R. & Piermari, C. (2015). Monitoring land take by point sampling: Pace and dynamics of urban expansion in the Metropolitan City of Rome, Landscape and Urban Planning, 143, P.p: 126-133.
    10.
  10. Wu, Y., Zhang, X. and Shen, S. (2011). The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: A scenario analysis, Cities, 28, P.p: 147–159.
    11.
  11. Zheng, H. W., Shen, G. Q., Wang, H. & Hong, J. (2015). Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong, Habitat International, 46, P.p: 23-34.
    12.

 

 

 

_||_

Chen, J., Gao, J. & Chen, W. (2016a). Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China, Habitat International, 53, 274-283.

  1. Chen, Y., Chen, Z., Xu, G. & Tian, Z. (2016b). Built-up land efficiency in urban China: Insights from the General Land Use Plan (2006-2020), Habitat International, 51, P.p: 31-38.
    2.
  2. Dadashpoor, H., Azizi, P. & Moghadasi, M. (2019). Land use change, urbanization, and change in landscape pattern in a metropolitan area, Science of The Total Environment, 655, P.p: 707-719.
    3.
  3. Dadashpour, H., Khairuddin, R., Yaqub Khani, M. & Chamani, B. (2013). Modeling Land Use Changes in Tehran Metropolis Using MOLAND Model, Regional Planning Quarterly, 4(16), P.p: 49-64.
    4.
  4. Eduful, M. & Shively, D. (2015). Perceptions of urban land use and degradation of water bodies in Kumasi, Ghana, Habitat International, 50, P.p: 206-213.
    5.

6.Gandhi, S.J., Gorod, A. & Sauser, B. (2011). A case study: the New York city yellow cab system of systems, 2011 6th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering: SoSE in Cloud Computing, Smart Grid, and Cyber Security, IEEE, Albuquerque, NM, June P.p: 27-30.

7.Grogan, P.T. and De Weck, O.L. (2013), An integrated modeling framework for infrastructure system-of-systems simulation, Systems Conference (SysCon), 2013 International, IEEE, Orlando, FL, April P.p: 15-18.

8.Hashempour, H., Zhang, X. & Skitmore, M. (2019). Implications for sustainable land use in high-density cities: Evidence from Hong Kong, Habitat International, 50, P.p: 23-34.

  1. Jang, M. & Kang, C. D. (2015). Urban greenway and compact land use development: A multilevel assessment in Seoul, South Korea, Landscape and Urban Planning, 143, P.p: 160-172.
    2.
  2. Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., & Shelley, M. K. (2004). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31(2), P.p: 251–271.
    3.
  3. Jashani, I. & Ranjbar, A. (2017). City and urbanization in Iran, the third national conference of knowledge and technology of agricultural sciences, natural resources and environment of Iran, Tehran, https://civilica.com/doc/882176.
    4.

12.Kasai, S., Li, N. & Fang, D. (2015). A system-of-systems approach to understanding urbanization-state of the art and prospect, Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, 4 (2), P.p: 154-171.

  1. Kaur, N., Mcleod, C.S., Jain, A., Harrison, R., Ahmad, B., Colombo, A.W. & Delsing, J. (2013). Design and Simulation of a SOA-based system of systems for automation in the residential sector, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology (ICIT), IEEE, Cape Town, February P.p: 25-28.
    2.
  2. Kheir, N. & Portnov, B. A. (2016). Economic, demographic and environmental factors affecting urban land prices in the Arab sector in Israel, Land Use Policy, 50, P.p: 518-527.
    3.
  3. Krekel, C., Kolbe, J. & Wüstemann, H. (2016). The greener, the happier? The effect of urban land use on residential well-being, Ecological Economics, 121, P.p: 117-127.
    4.
  4. Li, Z., Gurgel, H., Li, M., Dessay, N., & Gong, P. (2022). Urban Land Expansion from Scratch to Urban Agglomeration in the Federal District of Brazil in the Past 60 Years. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 19, P.p: 1032.
    5.
  5. Liu, Y., Luo, T., Liu, Z., Kong, X., Li, J. & Tan, R. (2015). A comparative analysis of urban and rural construction land use change and driving forces: Implications for urban-rural coordination development in Wuhan, Central China, Habitat International, 47, P.p: 113-125.
    6.
  6. Mashayikhi, A. (2017). Systems Dynamics: A Systemic Perspective, Ariana Publications, Tehran.
    7.

19.Mirmiran, A. (2012). Housing in mega cities- a systems engineering approach, International Journal for Housing Science and Its Applications, 36(2), P.p: 83-87.

20.Mohammadi, A., Shafii T, N. & Shakiba, A. (2018). The effects of urban creep on land use change in the suburbs of Tehran metropolis (a case study of the Tehran-Damavand axis), Environmental Sciences Quarterly, 17(4) P.p: 1-26.

21.Munroe, D. K., McSweeney, K., Olson, J. L., & Mansfield, B. (2014). Using economic geography to reinvigorate land-change science. Geoforum, 52, P.p:  12-21.

22.Mushfaghi, V., Hakit Nayini, G, & Habibi, M. (2018). investigating the relationship between land use changes and land prices in Tehran city with an emphasis on the approvals of the Article Five Commission, Geography and Environmental Planning, 30(4), P.p:  1-18.

23.Nasrolahi Vosta, L. & Aghayri Heer, T. (2016). Dynamic analysis of population and its economic consequences using a systemic approach, Journal of Social Development, 11(3), P.p: 167-194.

24.Nath, B., Ni-Meister, W. & Choudhury, R. (2021). Impact of urbanization on land use and land cover change in Guwahati city, India and its implication on declining groundwater level, Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 12, P.p: 100500.

  1. Nuissl, H. & Siedentop, S. (2021). Urbanisation and Land Use Change. In: Weith, T., Barkmann, T., Gaasch, N., Rogga, S., Strauß, C., Zscheischler, J. (eds) Sustainable Land Management in a European Context. Human-Environment Interactions, 8, P.p: 136-181.
    2.
  2. Pourahmad, A. and Saif al-Dini, F. & Prenun, B. (2010). migration and land use change in Islamshahr city, geographical studies of dry areas, 2(5), P.p: 131-152.
    3.
  3. Ramaswami, A.,Weible, C.,Main, D., Heikkila, T., Siddiki, S., Duvall, A., Pattison, A. & Bernard,M. (2012). A social-ecological-infrastructural systems framework for interdisciplinary study of sustainable city systems, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 16 (6), P.p: 801-813.
    4.
  4. Rezaei Moghadam, A. (2013). investigating the impact of land use on the urban environment, the 6th National Conference on Urban Planning and Management with an emphasis on the components of the Islamic city, 21st and 22nd of November, Holy Mashhad.
    5.
  5. Shen, L. Y., Wu, Y. Z., Chan, E. H. W., & Hao, J. L. (2005). Application of system dynamics for assessment of sustainable performance of construction projects, Journal of Zhejiang University Science, 6 (4), P.p: 339-349.
    6.
  6. Sterman, J. D. (2000). A skeptic’s guide to computer models. Managing a nation: The microcomputer software catalog, 16( 2), P.p: 209-229.
    7.
  7. Tang, Y., Mason, R. J. & Wang, Y. (2015). Governments’ functions in the process of integrated consolidation and allocation of ruraleurban construction land in China, Journal of Rural Studies, 42, P.p: 43-51.
    8.
  8. Vahidian Biki, L., Pourahmad, A. & Saif al-Dini, F. (2011). the effect of physical development of Tehran city on land use change in region 5, new attitudes in human geography, 4(1), P.p: 29-47.
    9.
  9. Valerio, Q., Anna, B., Francesco, C., Diego, G., Dalila, R. & Piermari, C. (2015). Monitoring land take by point sampling: Pace and dynamics of urban expansion in the Metropolitan City of Rome, Landscape and Urban Planning, 143, P.p: 126-133.
    10.
  10. Wu, Y., Zhang, X. and Shen, S. (2011). The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: A scenario analysis, Cities, 28, P.p: 147–159.
    11.
  11. Zheng, H. W., Shen, G. Q., Wang, H. & Hong, J. (2015). Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong, Habitat International, 46, P.p: 23-34.
    12.

 

 

 

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