اولویت‌بندی و تحلیل حساسیت راهبردهای توسعه صادرات صنعت پلاستیک با استفاده از تکنیک AHP (مورد مطالعه: شرکت ملّی صنایع پتروشیمی ایران)
الموضوعات :mohammad abbasian 1 , Ruhollah Vahidkiani 2
1 - Assistant Professor, School of Technical and Engineering, Imam Ali University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - MA Graduated, Tehran, Iran
الکلمات المفتاحية: تکنیک تحلیل سلسه مراتبی, توسعه صادرات, ارزیابی راهبرد,
ملخص المقالة :
بررسی روند صادرات صنعت پلاستیک کشور بیانگر افت معنادار آن است. شرکت ملّی صنایع پتروشیمی ایران بعنوان متولی سیاست‌گذاری در امر تولید، پشتیبانی‌ها و مانع‌زدایی‌ها، اقدام به عارضه‌یابی و برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی این حوزه نمود. تصمیم‌گیری علمی درخصوص انتخاب راهبردِ مناسبِ توسعه صادرات صنعت پلاستیک و تعیین اولویت نسبی هر کدام در راستای رفع توأمان و تک‌تکِ چالش‌های مبتلابه توسعه صادرات این صنعت در سالی که مزین به شعار تولید، دانش‌بنیان، اشتغال‌آفرین شده است؛ از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. هدف این مقاله اولویت‌بندی و تحلیل حساسیت عوامل افت و راهبردهای ارتقای صادرات صنعت پلاستیک کشور با بهره‌گیری از تکنیک اولویت‌بندی سلسله مراتبی است. تحقیق حاضر کاربردی و توصیفی-پیمایشی از نوع مطالعه موردی است. جامعه آماری شامل مدیران اثرگذار صادرات صنعت پلاستیک است که به طریقه نمونه‌گیری تصادفی تعداد 30 نفر انتخاب شدند. نتایج نشان داد چالش‌های نوسانات قیمت محصول و عدم تعامل با خریداران بزرگ خارجی بترتیب با ضرایب تأثیر 631/0 و 197/0، دارای بالاترین تأثیر هستند. نتایج آنالیز حساسیت گرادیانی درخصوص این دو چالش، حاکی از اثرگذاری مثبت بالای راهبرد ایجاد بسترهای لازم برای سهولت تجارت آزاد (منطقه‌ای-بین‌المللی) در رفع آنهاست. نتایج آنالیز حساسیت کارایی کل چالش‌ها، نشان داد شرکت ملّی صنایع پتروشیمی برای رفع توأمان چالش‌های پنجگانه حوزه صادرات صنعت پلاستیک، بایستی بیشترین توجه خود را معطوف به ایجاد بسترهای لازم برای سهولت تجارت آزاد (با ضریب تأثیر 358/0) نموده و با تلاش در جهت ساماندهی خوشه‌های صادراتی (با ضریب تأثیر 277/0)، بهره‌برداری کارآمد از فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات (با ضریب تأثیر 160/0) را با جدیت زیادتری دنبال نماید.
المصادر:
Agha-Alian, A. (2016). Identifying and ranking the effective factors in the occurrence of delays and cost increases in construction projects (Case study: Construction industry in District 22 of Tehran). Thesis. Ivanoki University. (in persian)
Alawi, A. (2013). The effect of coordination of marketing strategies on supply chain performance (research in chemical companies in Zanjan province). Thesis. University of Tabriz. Aras International Campus. (in persian)
Alizadeh-Goodarzi, H. (2011). Development of methods for identifying, evaluating and prioritizing accident hotspots based on multi-criteria decision-making methods. Thesis. University of Semnan. Faculty of Civil Engineering. (in persian)
Biswas, S., Roy, S., & Seshagiri, S. (2007). Collaboration in Indian SME clusters: a case study, The 3rd International Conference on Communities and Technologies. 28-30.
Dehgan-Khavari, S. (2017). Investigating the theory of new structural economics and its application for economic development in Iran. Thesis. Allameh Tabatabai University. Faculty of Economics. (in persian)
Derakhshan, M. & Taklif, A. (2015). Technology Transfer and Development in the Upstream Sector of Iran's Oil Industry: Considerations on Concepts, Requirements, Challenges and Solutions, Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 4 (14): 33-88. (in persian)
Ebrahimi, M. & Negahdari, E. (2010). Determining the priorities of industrial investment in Hormozgan province, Journal of economic studies, 1(1): 85-110. (in persian)
Fahimi, F. (2011). Evaluating the performance of the battery industry in Khorasan Razavi province using a balanced scorecard framework and fuzzy hierarchical analysis process. Thesis. Mashhad Ferdowsi University. (in persian)
Fahimifar, J., Wali-Beigi, H., & Abedin-Moghanaki, M.R. (2004). Prioritization of target markets of selected Iranian petrochemical products, Quarterly Journal of Business Research, 31: 153-202. (in persian)
Fakhrzad, P. (2013). Prioritize emerging technologies with an integrated model of fuzzy decision-making methods in advantageous industries (Case study: Transportation industry). Thesis. Al-Zahra University. Faculty of Engineering. (in persian)
Farhadikhah, H., Ziari, K., Arvin, M., & Zafari, M. (2019). Strategic planning of tourism development with a focus on gardens (Case study: traditional gardens of Qazvin), Journal of Urban Tourism, 5 (4): 153-170. (in persian)
Hosseini, R., Salehi-Rezve, S. (2021). Review and ranking of organizational vitality strategies in the workplace of municipalities (studied by mayors), The Second International Conference on Challenges and New Solutions in Industrial Engineering, Management and Accounting. 1-13. (in persian)
Ismaili-Dehj, A. (2011). Optimal placement of several types of FACTS devices to increase the total transferability and reduce the density of network lines. Thesis. Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman. Faculty of Engineering. (in persian)
Jalalion, M., Arman, M., & Hosseini, S.Y. (2022). Evaluation of the strategic planning system of the organization based on the blue ocean approach (Case study: National Iranian Petrochemical Company), Quarterly Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 12 (48). (in persian)
Karimi, M., Namamian, F., Vafaie, F., & Moradi, A. (2020). Identification and evaluation of entrepreneurship and innovation indicators of smart international companies using DEMATEL-ANP, Industrial Management Perspectives, 10 (4): 117-154. (in persian)
Kazazi, A., Amiri, M., & Rabar-Yaqoubi, F. (2011). Evaluation and prioritization of strategies using Electro 3 technique in fuzzy environment (Case study: Tamad Company), Industrial Management Studies, 8 (20): 49-79. (in persian)
Kuwayama, M. (2001). E-Commerce and export promotion policies for small-and medium-sized enterprises: East Asian and Latin American experiences. ECLAC.
Mahmoudi, S. (2018). Modeling the ecological potential of Kermanshah resin watershed using the fuzzy hierarchical analysis process approach and GIS. Thesis. Supervisor: Mahmoud Khorramiyeva. Razi University, Campus of Agriculture and Natural Resources. (in persian)
Mahmoudi, S. (2016). Providing a marketing model for non-wood products of West Azerbaijan province based on marketing mix. Thesis. Urmia University. Faculty of Agriculture. (in persian)
Masoumi, M. (2021). Identifying and prioritizing micro-financing strategies in the branches of Gharz al-Hasna Resalat Bank in Hormozgan province, The Second International Conference on Challenges and New Solutions in Industrial Engineering, Management and Accounting. 1-10. (in persian)
Mehregan, M.R., Salami, H., & Khajeh, M. (2012). Sensitivity analysis of prioritization of power plants with network analysis process. Energy Economics Studies, 9 (35): 169-198. (in persian)
Mir, M. (2015). Determining the appropriate combination of price and quality by focusing on customer loyalty to the miniature electrical switch product (Case study: Pars Tavan-Azma Company). Thesis. Payame Noor University of Tehran. Payame Noor Rey Center. (in persian)
Moghadasi, R. & Rahimi, R. (2011) The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Agricultural Trade in ECO Countries, Quarterly Journal of Economic Sciences, 17: 9-21. (in persian)
Musikhani, H.R. (2012). Balanced performance management based on a combination of balanced scorecard models and Houshin Kaneri (Case study: Mobarakeh Steel Company of Isfahan). Thesis. Isfahan University of Technology. Faculty of Industrial Engineering. (in persian)
Nazeri, A., Safaei, N., & Nikoumand, S. (2021). Identifying and prioritizing barriers to implementing green human resource management in Tehran Oil Refining Company, Journal of Human Resource Management in the Oil Industry, 12 (47): 112-129. (in persian)
Pal, P. (2004). Regional trade agreements in a multilateral trade regime: an overview. May, 5, 2.
Rashnavadi, Y. & Ruhelahi, M. (2018). Strategic technology planning model in Iranian petrochemical industry using network analysis process, Strategic Management Research, 24 (68): 37-63. (in persian)
Sandee, H., & Ibrahim, B. (2002). Evaluation of SME Trade and export Promotion in Indonesia. ADB Technical Assistance: SME Development, April.
Sangbar, M., Safi, M.R., & Azar, A. (2022). Identify and prioritize sustainable supply chain management enablers in the petrochemical industry with a combined approach of "meta-combination" and "graph theory and matrix approach". Industrial Management Studies, 20 (64). (in persian)
Sarvaram, M. (2019). Selection and ranking of marketing mix according to the customer's purchase decision using the combined model of AHP and TOPSIS (Case study: Cyrus chain store shopping center). Thesis. Islamic Azad University. Zarghan Branch. (in persian)
Servar, R., Khaliji, M., & Fathi, M.H. (2013). Assessment of capabilities and environmental hazards using the SWOT-AHP model (Case study: Esco city: Gonbarf village), Geographical territory, 9(4:36): 61-92. (in persian)
Shafiee, S., Kohandel, M., Montazerieh, M., & Radinia, G.R. (2015). Identifying, weighting and prioritizing performance evaluation indicators of sports clubs, Sports Management and Development, 3 (1): 83-95. (in persian)
Shafiee-Nikabadi, M. , Shafiee-Nikabadi, M., & Hosseini, S.M.H. (2017). Determining the optimal portfolio of construction projects, based on the combined approach of hierarchical analysis and cumulative ratio evaluation (Case study: Deputy of Engineering and Executor of civil plans of a military category, Military Management, 15 (59): 1-31. (in persian)
Shakya, M. (2009). Clusters for competitiveness: A practical guide and policy implications for developing cluster initiatives. Available at: SSRN 1392479.
Tahmasebi-Nejad, A. (2018). Presenting a combined model of AHP and FINE KINNEY to evaluate and prioritize risk (Case study: Mobarakeh Steel Complex, Isfahan). Thesis. Kushiar Higher Education Institute. (in persian)
Tayebi, M., Bemani, A., Fetanat, A., & Sani, M. F. (2022). A decision support system for sustainability prioritization of air pollution control technologies in energy and carbon management: Oil & gas industry of Iran, Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 104416.
Toluenia, S. (2017). Investigating the mediating role of rational decision making in the relationship between demographic characteristics (age, background and level of education) of managers and organizational performance (Case study: Toos Industrial Park companies in Mashhad). Thesis. Ferdowsi University. Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences. (in persian)
Wuttke, J. (2005). The Petrochemical Industry in China. In The Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry in China. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Yadegari-Taheri, T., Vakil-Alroaia, Y., Faezi-Razi, F., & Heydariyeh, S. (2021). Identification and Prioritization of Organizational Intelligence Criteria in Production Cooperatives of Iran, Journal of System Management, 7(4): 205-227.
Yazdani-Byuki, F. (2016). Identification and ranking of factors affecting the selection of construction contractors using fuzzy TOPSIS method (Case study: Yazd Municipality). Thesis. Imam Javad (AS) Higher Education Institute-Yazd. Faculty of Engineering. (in persian)
Zarei-Qarkanlu, Q. (2010). Prioritization of selected African countries for non-oil exports of the Islamic Republic of Iran using data envelopment analysis approach. Thesis. Tarbiat Modares University. (in persian)
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Agha-Alian, A. (2016). Identifying and ranking the effective factors in the occurrence of delays and cost increases in construction projects (Case study: Construction industry in District 22 of Tehran). Thesis. Ivanoki University. (in persian)
Alawi, A. (2013). The effect of coordination of marketing strategies on supply chain performance (research in chemical companies in Zanjan province). Thesis. University of Tabriz. Aras International Campus. (in persian)
Alizadeh-Goodarzi, H. (2011). Development of methods for identifying, evaluating and prioritizing accident hotspots based on multi-criteria decision-making methods. Thesis. University of Semnan. Faculty of Civil Engineering. (in persian)
Biswas, S., Roy, S., & Seshagiri, S. (2007). Collaboration in Indian SME clusters: a case study, The 3rd International Conference on Communities and Technologies. 28-30.
Dehgan-Khavari, S. (2017). Investigating the theory of new structural economics and its application for economic development in Iran. Thesis. Allameh Tabatabai University. Faculty of Economics. (in persian)
Derakhshan, M. & Taklif, A. (2015). Technology Transfer and Development in the Upstream Sector of Iran's Oil Industry: Considerations on Concepts, Requirements, Challenges and Solutions, Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 4 (14): 33-88. (in persian)
Ebrahimi, M. & Negahdari, E. (2010). Determining the priorities of industrial investment in Hormozgan province, Journal of economic studies, 1(1): 85-110. (in persian)
Fahimi, F. (2011). Evaluating the performance of the battery industry in Khorasan Razavi province using a balanced scorecard framework and fuzzy hierarchical analysis process. Thesis. Mashhad Ferdowsi University. (in persian)
Fahimifar, J., Wali-Beigi, H., & Abedin-Moghanaki, M.R. (2004). Prioritization of target markets of selected Iranian petrochemical products, Quarterly Journal of Business Research, 31: 153-202. (in persian)
Fakhrzad, P. (2013). Prioritize emerging technologies with an integrated model of fuzzy decision-making methods in advantageous industries (Case study: Transportation industry). Thesis. Al-Zahra University. Faculty of Engineering. (in persian)
Farhadikhah, H., Ziari, K., Arvin, M., & Zafari, M. (2019). Strategic planning of tourism development with a focus on gardens (Case study: traditional gardens of Qazvin), Journal of Urban Tourism, 5 (4): 153-170. (in persian)
Hosseini, R., Salehi-Rezve, S. (2021). Review and ranking of organizational vitality strategies in the workplace of municipalities (studied by mayors), The Second International Conference on Challenges and New Solutions in Industrial Engineering, Management and Accounting. 1-13. (in persian)
Ismaili-Dehj, A. (2011). Optimal placement of several types of FACTS devices to increase the total transferability and reduce the density of network lines. Thesis. Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman. Faculty of Engineering. (in persian)
Jalalion, M., Arman, M., & Hosseini, S.Y. (2022). Evaluation of the strategic planning system of the organization based on the blue ocean approach (Case study: National Iranian Petrochemical Company), Quarterly Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 12 (48). (in persian)
Karimi, M., Namamian, F., Vafaie, F., & Moradi, A. (2020). Identification and evaluation of entrepreneurship and innovation indicators of smart international companies using DEMATEL-ANP, Industrial Management Perspectives, 10 (4): 117-154. (in persian)
Kazazi, A., Amiri, M., & Rabar-Yaqoubi, F. (2011). Evaluation and prioritization of strategies using Electro 3 technique in fuzzy environment (Case study: Tamad Company), Industrial Management Studies, 8 (20): 49-79. (in persian)
Kuwayama, M. (2001). E-Commerce and export promotion policies for small-and medium-sized enterprises: East Asian and Latin American experiences. ECLAC.
Mahmoudi, S. (2018). Modeling the ecological potential of Kermanshah resin watershed using the fuzzy hierarchical analysis process approach and GIS. Thesis. Supervisor: Mahmoud Khorramiyeva. Razi University, Campus of Agriculture and Natural Resources. (in persian)
Mahmoudi, S. (2016). Providing a marketing model for non-wood products of West Azerbaijan province based on marketing mix. Thesis. Urmia University. Faculty of Agriculture. (in persian)
Masoumi, M. (2021). Identifying and prioritizing micro-financing strategies in the branches of Gharz al-Hasna Resalat Bank in Hormozgan province, The Second International Conference on Challenges and New Solutions in Industrial Engineering, Management and Accounting. 1-10. (in persian)
Mehregan, M.R., Salami, H., & Khajeh, M. (2012). Sensitivity analysis of prioritization of power plants with network analysis process. Energy Economics Studies, 9 (35): 169-198. (in persian)
Mir, M. (2015). Determining the appropriate combination of price and quality by focusing on customer loyalty to the miniature electrical switch product (Case study: Pars Tavan-Azma Company). Thesis. Payame Noor University of Tehran. Payame Noor Rey Center. (in persian)
Moghadasi, R. & Rahimi, R. (2011) The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Agricultural Trade in ECO Countries, Quarterly Journal of Economic Sciences, 17: 9-21. (in persian)
Musikhani, H.R. (2012). Balanced performance management based on a combination of balanced scorecard models and Houshin Kaneri (Case study: Mobarakeh Steel Company of Isfahan). Thesis. Isfahan University of Technology. Faculty of Industrial Engineering. (in persian)
Nazeri, A., Safaei, N., & Nikoumand, S. (2021). Identifying and prioritizing barriers to implementing green human resource management in Tehran Oil Refining Company, Journal of Human Resource Management in the Oil Industry, 12 (47): 112-129. (in persian)
Pal, P. (2004). Regional trade agreements in a multilateral trade regime: an overview. May, 5, 2.
Rashnavadi, Y. & Ruhelahi, M. (2018). Strategic technology planning model in Iranian petrochemical industry using network analysis process, Strategic Management Research, 24 (68): 37-63. (in persian)
Sandee, H., & Ibrahim, B. (2002). Evaluation of SME Trade and export Promotion in Indonesia. ADB Technical Assistance: SME Development, April.
Sangbar, M., Safi, M.R., & Azar, A. (2022). Identify and prioritize sustainable supply chain management enablers in the petrochemical industry with a combined approach of "meta-combination" and "graph theory and matrix approach". Industrial Management Studies, 20 (64). (in persian)
Sarvaram, M. (2019). Selection and ranking of marketing mix according to the customer's purchase decision using the combined model of AHP and TOPSIS (Case study: Cyrus chain store shopping center). Thesis. Islamic Azad University. Zarghan Branch. (in persian)
Servar, R., Khaliji, M., & Fathi, M.H. (2013). Assessment of capabilities and environmental hazards using the SWOT-AHP model (Case study: Esco city: Gonbarf village), Geographical territory, 9(4:36): 61-92. (in persian)
Shafiee, S., Kohandel, M., Montazerieh, M., & Radinia, G.R. (2015). Identifying, weighting and prioritizing performance evaluation indicators of sports clubs, Sports Management and Development, 3 (1): 83-95. (in persian)
Shafiee-Nikabadi, M. , Shafiee-Nikabadi, M., & Hosseini, S.M.H. (2017). Determining the optimal portfolio of construction projects, based on the combined approach of hierarchical analysis and cumulative ratio evaluation (Case study: Deputy of Engineering and Executor of civil plans of a military category, Military Management, 15 (59): 1-31. (in persian)
Shakya, M. (2009). Clusters for competitiveness: A practical guide and policy implications for developing cluster initiatives. Available at: SSRN 1392479.
Tahmasebi-Nejad, A. (2018). Presenting a combined model of AHP and FINE KINNEY to evaluate and prioritize risk (Case study: Mobarakeh Steel Complex, Isfahan). Thesis. Kushiar Higher Education Institute. (in persian)
Tayebi, M., Bemani, A., Fetanat, A., & Sani, M. F. (2022). A decision support system for sustainability prioritization of air pollution control technologies in energy and carbon management: Oil & gas industry of Iran, Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 104416.
Toluenia, S. (2017). Investigating the mediating role of rational decision making in the relationship between demographic characteristics (age, background and level of education) of managers and organizational performance (Case study: Toos Industrial Park companies in Mashhad). Thesis. Ferdowsi University. Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences. (in persian)
Wuttke, J. (2005). The Petrochemical Industry in China. In The Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry in China. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Yadegari-Taheri, T., Vakil-Alroaia, Y., Faezi-Razi, F., & Heydariyeh, S. (2021). Identification and Prioritization of Organizational Intelligence Criteria in Production Cooperatives of Iran, Journal of System Management, 7(4): 205-227.
Yazdani-Byuki, F. (2016). Identification and ranking of factors affecting the selection of construction contractors using fuzzy TOPSIS method (Case study: Yazd Municipality). Thesis. Imam Javad (AS) Higher Education Institute-Yazd. Faculty of Engineering. (in persian)
Zarei-Qarkanlu, Q. (2010). Prioritization of selected African countries for non-oil exports of the Islamic Republic of Iran using data envelopment analysis approach. Thesis. Tarbiat Modares University. (in persian)
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