تحلیل الگوی تاب‌آوری کالبدی ـ فضایی متأثر از مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی کلانشهر تهران (مطالعه موردی: تحلیل تطبیقی مناطق ۲ و ۱۲)
الموضوعات :
کریم حسین زاده دلیر
1
(استاد تمام گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرند، مرند، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات))
الهه بیگدلی
2
(دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی شهرسازی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرند، مرند، ایران.)
بختیار عزت پناه
3
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرند، مرند، ایران.)
تاريخ الإرسال : 25 الإثنين , شعبان, 1443
تاريخ التأكيد : 06 الثلاثاء , ذو الحجة, 1443
تاريخ الإصدار : 25 الثلاثاء , محرم, 1444
الکلمات المفتاحية:
مناطق 2 و 12,
تاب‌آوری,
کالبد,
الگوریتم رقابت استعماری,
عوامل فضایی و اجتماعی,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: در ادبیات دانشگاهی اخیراً تأکید بر این است که چرا تاب‌آوری شهری متفاوت از پایداری شهری است. این در حالی است که برنامه‌های سیاست‌گذاری شهری از این اصطلاحات تقریباً به جای یکدیگر استفاده می‌کنند. در این پژوهش با تحلیل الگوی تاب‌آوری کالبدی ـ فضایی؛ عوامل متأثر از مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی همچون زلزله وفرونشست در سطح مناطق 2 و 12 شهر تهران بررسی می‌شود.
روش بررسی: این پژوهش کاربردی است که با روش تحلیلی ـ موردی و رویکرد کمی انجام گرفته است. با توجه به ماهیت داده‌ها از نوع توصیفی است. برای دستیابی به اهداف تحقیق و تحلیل الگوی تاب‌آوری کالبدی ـ فضایی متأثر از مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی کلانشهر تهران شامل فرونشست و زلزله، ابعاد مورد بررسی در 13 شاخص شامل قیمت پایه (مترمربع)، جنس مصالح، سال ساخت، قدمت ساختمان، اسکلت ساختمان، تعداد طبقات، درجه تمرکز یا تفرق کاربری مسکونی، دانه‌بندی، نفوذپذیری، مساحت کل کاربری‌ها (فضای سبز و باز) و مساحت کاربری مسکونی در بخش فضایی و کالبدی و درجه تمرکز یا تفرق جمعیت، خوشه‌های مسکونی و فضاهای باز و سبز جهت استقرار جمعیت براساس اکثریت ساکن در محلات، جهت جغرافیایی توزیع جمعیت در بخش اجتماعی مبتنی بر مطالعات کاربری اراضی وضع موجود استخراج شد. برای ارزیابی و تحلیل الگوهای فضایی و اجتماعی از الگوریتم رقابت استعماری در محیط نرم‌افزار Matlab a2019 و برای فضایی‌سازی شاخص های مورد مطالعه از روش (Tracking Analyst Tools) در فرآیند تحلیل شبکه (Network Analyst Tools) در محیط نرم‌افزار ArcGIS استفاده شده است.
یافته‌ها: با توجه به قرارگیری منطقه ۱۲ در بافت تاریخی و تمرکز و تراکم جمعیت در محورهای کانونی با عملکرد منطقه‌ای، آسیب‌پذیری بیشتری از خود نشان می‌دهد. در ارتباط با معیارهای تراکم جمعیت، دانه‌بندی و همچنین وضعیت اسکلت ساختمان‌ها؛ مجموعا منطقه 2 وضعیت بهتری را نشان می‌دهد هرچند تراکم جمعیت در سطح هر دو منطقه علی‌رغم جمعیت و وسعت بیشتر منطقه ۲ یکسان می‌باشد، اما با توجه به سیل جمعیت شناور مراجعه کننده و ساکن در منطقه ۱۲ این منطقه تاب‌آوری پایین‌تری را نشان می‌دهد.
بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به فرسوده بودن ابنیه و نفوذپذیری کم‌فضایی، الگوی پراکنش فضایی جمعیت و عوامل مؤثر بر گسست‌های کالبدی ـ فضایی در سطح منطقه 2 و 12 نتایج نشان می‌دهد که الگوی توزیع و گسست تاب‌آوری در سطح محلات، هر دو منطقه متفاوت و در مجموع منطقه ۱۲ وضعیت ناپایدارتری را نشان می‌دهد.
المصادر:
Arvin, M., Faraji, A., Bazrafkan, S. (2018) Study of Social Capital Effect on Earthquake Disaster Management with Emphasis on Resiliency (Case: Tehran City Region 9). Social Capital Management, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-24. (In Persian)
Bazgeer, S., Firoozi, Z., Shamsipour, A., Moghbel, M. (2019) Spatial Analysis of Environmental Conditions for Urban Agriculture in Tehran Metropolis (Case Study: District 5). Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 111-125. (In Persian)
Ebrahimzadeh, Issa and Ismailnejad, Morteza (2017) Climatic Refugees the Challenge of the Future of Regional Developments (Case Study: South Khorasan), Geography and Development Quarterly, Vol. 15, No 48, pp. 1-18. (In Persian)
Ainuddin, S., & Routray, J. K. (2012) Community resilience framework for an earthquake prone area in Baluchistan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 2, No. 6, pp. 25-36.
Cai, Heng., Lam, Nina S.N., Qiang, Yi., Zou, Lei, Correll, Rachel M., Mihunov, V. (2018) A Synthesis of Disaster Resilience Measurement Methods and Indices, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 31, No. 6, pp. 844-855.
Chelleri, L., & Baravikova, A. (2021) Understandings of urban resilience meanings and principles across Europe. Cities, Vol. 108, No.10, pp.29-85.
Jalalian, I. (2019) Assessment of Structural-Natural Resilience of Urban Land Use Case Study: Tehran Metropolitan Area 4. Sustainable city, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 109-122. (In Persian)
Sasanpour F, ahangari N, hajinejad S. (2017) Evaluation of the urban resilience against natural hazards in 12 region of Tehran Metropolis, jsaeh, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 85-98. (In Persian)
Das, S. (2019) Geospatial mapping of flood susceptibility and hydro-geomorphic response to the floods in Ulhas basin, India. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Vol. 14, No.3, pp. 60-74.
Gralepois, M. (2020) What Can We Learn from Planning Instruments in Flood Prevention? Comparative Illustration to Highlight the Challenges of Governance in Europe. Water, Vol.12, No. 6, pp.18-41.
Hawley, R. J., Bledsoe, B. P., Stein, E. D., & Haines, B. E. (2012) Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydro modification 1, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 48, No.4, pp. 722-744.
Jabareen, Y. (2013) Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk. Cities, Vol. 31, No. 20, pp. 220-229.
Kamrholm, A., Mechler, R., Mochizuki, J., Kunreuther, H., Bayer, J., Hanger, S., ... & Egan, C. (2014) Operationalizing resilience against natural disaster risk: opportunities, barriers, and a way forward. White Paper, Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance.
Lechner, S., Jacometti, J., McBean, G., & Mitchison, N. (2016) Resilience in a complex world–Avoiding cross-sector collapse. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 84-91.
León, J., & March, A. (2014) Urban morphology as a tool for supporting tsunami rapid resilience: A case study of Talcahuano, Chile. Habitat international, Vol. 43, No. 21, pp. 250-262.
Madzharov, S., (2013) the chalets of the future and the increasing significance of crisis management, university of Illinois Press. Retrieved from: https://www.longdom.org/.../the impact-of-strategic planning-on-crisis.
Meng, M., Dabrowski, M., & Stead, D. (2020) Enhancing Flood Resilience and Climate Adaptation: The State of the Art and New Directions for Spatial Planning. Sustainability, Vol. 12, No.19, pp.64-78.
Parizadi, T., shaikholeslami, A., karimi razakani, A. (2019) Analysis of the state of urban resilience against natural hazards (Case Study: Baqer-shahr City), Vol. 10, No. 37, pp. 41-54. (In Persian)
Pashapour, H., pourakrami, M. (2018) Measuring Physical Dimensions of Urban Resilience in The Face of the Natural Disasters (Earthquake) (Case Study: Tehran's 12th District). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 985-1002. (In Persian)
Mitchell, T., & Harris, K. (2012) Resilience: A risk management approach. ODI background note, 1-7.
Morelli, S., Battistini, A., & Catani, F. (2014) Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data: Application to the Arno river case study (Firenze, northern Italy). Applied Geography, Vol. 54, No. 13, pp. 35-53.
Morelli, S., Battistini, A., & Catani, F. (2014) Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data: Application to the Arno river case study (Firenze, northern Italy). Applied Geography, Vol. 54, No.13, pp. 35-53.
Usamah, M., Handmer, J., Mitchell, D., & Ahmed, I. (2014) Can the vulnerable be resilient? Co-existence of vulnerability and disaster resilience: Informal settlements in the Philippines. International journal of disaster risk reduction, Vol. 10, No. 33, pp. 178-189.
Werchoch, V. (2012) Evaluation of multifunctional indicators to measure earthquake resilience in urban areas: A new literature review. International journal of disaster risk reduction, Vol. 31, No.12, pp. 311-330.
Hashemi Petrudi, S., Jafarnejad, A., Sadeghi Moghadam, M., Safari, H. (2017) Governance Challenges of Disaster Management Network: A Case Study of Tehran City. Journal of Public Administration, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 379-402. (In Persian)
Norris, F. H., Sherrieb, K., & Pfefferbaum, B. (2011). Community resilience: concepts, assessment, and implications for. Resilience and mental health: Challenges across the lifespan, 162.
Rashid, H. (2011) Interpreting flood disasters and flood hazard perceptions from newspaper discourse: Tale of two floods in the Red River valley, Manitoba, Canada. Applied Geography, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 35-45.
Sun, H., Zhen, F., & Xie, Z. (2021) Urban resilience assessment based on contradiction between supply and demand of the daily activity–environment system: A case study on Nanjing, China. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 765, No. 14, pp.45-67.
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Arvin, M., Faraji, A., Bazrafkan, S. (2018) Study of Social Capital Effect on Earthquake Disaster Management with Emphasis on Resiliency (Case: Tehran City Region 9). Social Capital Management, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-24. (In Persian)
Bazgeer, S., Firoozi, Z., Shamsipour, A., Moghbel, M. (2019) Spatial Analysis of Environmental Conditions for Urban Agriculture in Tehran Metropolis (Case Study: District 5). Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 111-125. (In Persian)
Ebrahimzadeh, Issa and Ismailnejad, Morteza (2017) Climatic Refugees the Challenge of the Future of Regional Developments (Case Study: South Khorasan), Geography and Development Quarterly, Vol. 15, No 48, pp. 1-18. (In Persian)
Ainuddin, S., & Routray, J. K. (2012) Community resilience framework for an earthquake prone area in Baluchistan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 2, No. 6, pp. 25-36.
Cai, Heng., Lam, Nina S.N., Qiang, Yi., Zou, Lei, Correll, Rachel M., Mihunov, V. (2018) A Synthesis of Disaster Resilience Measurement Methods and Indices, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 31, No. 6, pp. 844-855.
Chelleri, L., & Baravikova, A. (2021) Understandings of urban resilience meanings and principles across Europe. Cities, Vol. 108, No.10, pp.29-85.
Jalalian, I. (2019) Assessment of Structural-Natural Resilience of Urban Land Use Case Study: Tehran Metropolitan Area 4. Sustainable city, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 109-122. (In Persian)
Sasanpour F, ahangari N, hajinejad S. (2017) Evaluation of the urban resilience against natural hazards in 12 region of Tehran Metropolis, jsaeh, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 85-98. (In Persian)
Das, S. (2019) Geospatial mapping of flood susceptibility and hydro-geomorphic response to the floods in Ulhas basin, India. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Vol. 14, No.3, pp. 60-74.
Gralepois, M. (2020) What Can We Learn from Planning Instruments in Flood Prevention? Comparative Illustration to Highlight the Challenges of Governance in Europe. Water, Vol.12, No. 6, pp.18-41.
Hawley, R. J., Bledsoe, B. P., Stein, E. D., & Haines, B. E. (2012) Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydro modification 1, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 48, No.4, pp. 722-744.
Jabareen, Y. (2013) Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk. Cities, Vol. 31, No. 20, pp. 220-229.
Kamrholm, A., Mechler, R., Mochizuki, J., Kunreuther, H., Bayer, J., Hanger, S., ... & Egan, C. (2014) Operationalizing resilience against natural disaster risk: opportunities, barriers, and a way forward. White Paper, Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance.
Lechner, S., Jacometti, J., McBean, G., & Mitchison, N. (2016) Resilience in a complex world–Avoiding cross-sector collapse. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 84-91.
León, J., & March, A. (2014) Urban morphology as a tool for supporting tsunami rapid resilience: A case study of Talcahuano, Chile. Habitat international, Vol. 43, No. 21, pp. 250-262.
Madzharov, S., (2013) the chalets of the future and the increasing significance of crisis management, university of Illinois Press. Retrieved from: https://www.longdom.org/.../the impact-of-strategic planning-on-crisis.
Meng, M., Dabrowski, M., & Stead, D. (2020) Enhancing Flood Resilience and Climate Adaptation: The State of the Art and New Directions for Spatial Planning. Sustainability, Vol. 12, No.19, pp.64-78.
Parizadi, T., shaikholeslami, A., karimi razakani, A. (2019) Analysis of the state of urban resilience against natural hazards (Case Study: Baqer-shahr City), Vol. 10, No. 37, pp. 41-54. (In Persian)
Pashapour, H., pourakrami, M. (2018) Measuring Physical Dimensions of Urban Resilience in The Face of the Natural Disasters (Earthquake) (Case Study: Tehran's 12th District). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 985-1002. (In Persian)
Mitchell, T., & Harris, K. (2012) Resilience: A risk management approach. ODI background note, 1-7.
Morelli, S., Battistini, A., & Catani, F. (2014) Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data: Application to the Arno river case study (Firenze, northern Italy). Applied Geography, Vol. 54, No. 13, pp. 35-53.
Morelli, S., Battistini, A., & Catani, F. (2014) Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data: Application to the Arno river case study (Firenze, northern Italy). Applied Geography, Vol. 54, No.13, pp. 35-53.
Usamah, M., Handmer, J., Mitchell, D., & Ahmed, I. (2014) Can the vulnerable be resilient? Co-existence of vulnerability and disaster resilience: Informal settlements in the Philippines. International journal of disaster risk reduction, Vol. 10, No. 33, pp. 178-189.
Werchoch, V. (2012) Evaluation of multifunctional indicators to measure earthquake resilience in urban areas: A new literature review. International journal of disaster risk reduction, Vol. 31, No.12, pp. 311-330.
Hashemi Petrudi, S., Jafarnejad, A., Sadeghi Moghadam, M., Safari, H. (2017) Governance Challenges of Disaster Management Network: A Case Study of Tehran City. Journal of Public Administration, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 379-402. (In Persian)
Norris, F. H., Sherrieb, K., & Pfefferbaum, B. (2011). Community resilience: concepts, assessment, and implications for. Resilience and mental health: Challenges across the lifespan, 162.
Rashid, H. (2011) Interpreting flood disasters and flood hazard perceptions from newspaper discourse: Tale of two floods in the Red River valley, Manitoba, Canada. Applied Geography, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 35-45.
Sun, H., Zhen, F., & Xie, Z. (2021) Urban resilience assessment based on contradiction between supply and demand of the daily activity–environment system: A case study on Nanjing, China. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 765, No. 14, pp.45-67.
Arvin, M., Faraji, A., Bazrafkan, S. (2018) Study of Social Capital Effect on Earthquake Disaster Management with Emphasis on Resiliency (Case: Tehran City Region 9). Social Capital Management, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-24. (In Persian)
Bazgeer, S., Firoozi, Z., Shamsipour, A., Moghbel, M. (2019) Spatial Analysis of Environmental Conditions for Urban Agriculture in Tehran Metropolis (Case Study: District 5). Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 111-125. (In Persian)
Ebrahimzadeh, Issa and Ismailnejad, Morteza (2017) Climatic Refugees the Challenge of the Future of Regional Developments (Case Study: South Khorasan), Geography and Development Quarterly, Vol. 15, No 48, pp. 1-18. (In Persian)
Ainuddin, S., & Routray, J. K. (2012) Community resilience framework for an earthquake prone area in Baluchistan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 2, No. 6, pp. 25-36.
Cai, Heng., Lam, Nina S.N., Qiang, Yi., Zou, Lei, Correll, Rachel M., Mihunov, V. (2018) A Synthesis of Disaster Resilience Measurement Methods and Indices, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 31, No. 6, pp. 844-855.
Chelleri, L., & Baravikova, A. (2021) Understandings of urban resilience meanings and principles across Europe. Cities, Vol. 108, No.10, pp.29-85.
Jalalian, I. (2019) Assessment of Structural-Natural Resilience of Urban Land Use Case Study: Tehran Metropolitan Area 4. Sustainable city, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 109-122. (In Persian)
Sasanpour F, ahangari N, hajinejad S. (2017) Evaluation of the urban resilience against natural hazards in 12 region of Tehran Metropolis, jsaeh, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 85-98. (In Persian)
Das, S. (2019) Geospatial mapping of flood susceptibility and hydro-geomorphic response to the floods in Ulhas basin, India. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Vol. 14, No.3, pp. 60-74.
Gralepois, M. (2020) What Can We Learn from Planning Instruments in Flood Prevention? Comparative Illustration to Highlight the Challenges of Governance in Europe. Water, Vol.12, No. 6, pp.18-41.
Hawley, R. J., Bledsoe, B. P., Stein, E. D., & Haines, B. E. (2012) Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydro modification 1, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 48, No.4, pp. 722-744.
Jabareen, Y. (2013) Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk. Cities, Vol. 31, No. 20, pp. 220-229.
Kamrholm, A., Mechler, R., Mochizuki, J., Kunreuther, H., Bayer, J., Hanger, S., ... & Egan, C. (2014) Operationalizing resilience against natural disaster risk: opportunities, barriers, and a way forward. White Paper, Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance.
Lechner, S., Jacometti, J., McBean, G., & Mitchison, N. (2016) Resilience in a complex world–Avoiding cross-sector collapse. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 84-91.
León, J., & March, A. (2014) Urban morphology as a tool for supporting tsunami rapid resilience: A case study of Talcahuano, Chile. Habitat international, Vol. 43, No. 21, pp. 250-262.
Madzharov, S., (2013) the chalets of the future and the increasing significance of crisis management, university of Illinois Press. Retrieved from: https://www.longdom.org/.../the impact-of-strategic planning-on-crisis.
Meng, M., Dabrowski, M., & Stead, D. (2020) Enhancing Flood Resilience and Climate Adaptation: The State of the Art and New Directions for Spatial Planning. Sustainability, Vol. 12, No.19, pp.64-78.
Parizadi, T., shaikholeslami, A., karimi razakani, A. (2019) Analysis of the state of urban resilience against natural hazards (Case Study: Baqer-shahr City), Vol. 10, No. 37, pp. 41-54. (In Persian)
Pashapour, H., pourakrami, M. (2018) Measuring Physical Dimensions of Urban Resilience in The Face of the Natural Disasters (Earthquake) (Case Study: Tehran's 12th District). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 985-1002. (In Persian)
Mitchell, T., & Harris, K. (2012) Resilience: A risk management approach. ODI background note, 1-7.
Morelli, S., Battistini, A., & Catani, F. (2014) Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data: Application to the Arno river case study (Firenze, northern Italy). Applied Geography, Vol. 54, No. 13, pp. 35-53.
Morelli, S., Battistini, A., & Catani, F. (2014) Rapid assessment of flood susceptibility in urbanized rivers using digital terrain data: Application to the Arno river case study (Firenze, northern Italy). Applied Geography, Vol. 54, No.13, pp. 35-53.
Usamah, M., Handmer, J., Mitchell, D., & Ahmed, I. (2014) Can the vulnerable be resilient? Co-existence of vulnerability and disaster resilience: Informal settlements in the Philippines. International journal of disaster risk reduction, Vol. 10, No. 33, pp. 178-189.
Werchoch, V. (2012) Evaluation of multifunctional indicators to measure earthquake resilience in urban areas: A new literature review. International journal of disaster risk reduction, Vol. 31, No.12, pp. 311-330.
Hashemi Petrudi, S., Jafarnejad, A., Sadeghi Moghadam, M., Safari, H. (2017) Governance Challenges of Disaster Management Network: A Case Study of Tehran City. Journal of Public Administration, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 379-402. (In Persian)
Norris, F. H., Sherrieb, K., & Pfefferbaum, B. (2011). Community resilience: concepts, assessment, and implications for. Resilience and mental health: Challenges across the lifespan, 162.
Rashid, H. (2011) Interpreting flood disasters and flood hazard perceptions from newspaper discourse: Tale of two floods in the Red River valley, Manitoba, Canada. Applied Geography, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 35-45.
Sun, H., Zhen, F., & Xie, Z. (2021) Urban resilience assessment based on contradiction between supply and demand of the daily activity–environment system: A case study on Nanjing, China. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 765, No. 14, pp.45-67.
