بهینه‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی آینده با استفاده از مدل CLUE-s در شهرستان رامیان
الموضوعات :
مجید محمدی
1
(استادیار دانشکده مهندسی منابع طبیعی دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران. * (مسوول مکاتبات))
جعفر دستورانی
2
(دانش‌آموخته دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.)
تاريخ الإرسال : 06 السبت , رمضان, 1437
تاريخ التأكيد : 16 السبت , ذو الحجة, 1437
تاريخ الإصدار : 27 الأحد , ربيع الأول, 1444
الکلمات المفتاحية:
CLUE-s,
شبیه‌سازی کاربری اراضی,
سناریو,
شهرستان رامیان,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: تغییرات کاربری اراضی و تبدیل منابع طبیعی به زمین‌های کشاورزی و مناطق مسکونی مشکل بزرگی در بسیاری از کشورهای جهان است. تغییرات کاربری اراضی عامل تعیین کننده مهمی در فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی بوده و متغیرهای هیدرولوژیکی مانند حجم رواناب، فراوانی سیل، جریان پایه، جریان سطحی و زیرسطحی را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد. با توجه به اهمیت کاربری اراضی مدل‌های زیادی به‌منظور تغییرات کاربری اراضی ارائه شده است. هدف اصلی این تحقیق شبیه‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی شهرستان رامیان برای آینده بود.
روش بررسی: در ابتدا با استفاده از روش‌های سنجش از دور و تصاویر ماهواره لندست نقشه کاربری اراضی سال‌های 2000 و 2012 تهیه شد، سپس مدل CLUE-s برای شبیه‌سازی کاربری اراضی سال 2030 و طراحی سناریوها استفاده گردید. پنج سناریــــو با استفاده از مدل CLUE-s و تعریف محدودیت‌های تغییرات کاربری اراضی طراحی شد.
نتایج و بحث: نتایج نشان داد مهمترین تغییر کاربری در شهرستان رامیان تبدیل جنگل‌ها و مراتع به زمین‌های کشاورزی و مناطق مسکونی است. 07/18 کیلومتر مربع از جنگل‌ها و مراتع به زمین‌های کشاورزی و مسکونی تبدیل شده است. البته در سناریوهای طراحی شده تبدیل این طبقات کاربری اراضی در محل‌های خاصی محدود شده بود. شبیه‌سازی کاربری اراضی و طراحی سناریو ابزار مفیدی برای برنامه‌ریزان و مدیران منابع طبیعی خواهد بود.
المصادر:
Mohammady, M., 2014. Predicting Effects of Land Use Changes on Runoff Generation Using CLUE-s and WetSpa models for Management of Baghsalian Watershed in Golestan Province. Phd thesis, Tarbiat Modares University. 108 p. (In Persian)
Riebsame, W.E., Meyer, W.B., Turner I.I. B.L., Modeling land use and cover as part of global environmental change, Climate Change, Vol. 28: pp. 45-64 .
Thomson, A.M., Brown, R.A., Rosenberg, N.J., Srinivasan, R., Izaurralde, C., 2005. Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment, Climate Change, Vol. 69, pp. 67–88.
Mohammady, M., Moharami, S., 2022. Journal of Environmental Science Studies, Vol. 7, pp. 5711–5721. (In Persian)
Manson, S.M., 2005. Agent-based modeling and genetic programming for modeling land change in the Southern Yucata´n peninsular region of Mexico, Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, Vol. 111, pp. 47– 62.
Bolliger, J., 2005. Simulating complex landscapes with a generic model: sensitivity to qualitative and quantitative classifications, Ecological Complexity, Vol. 2, pp. 131–149.
Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A., 2004. Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales, Landscape Ecology, Vol. 19, pp. 77–98.
Agarwal, D.K., Silander, J.A. Jr., Gelfand, A.E., Deward, R.E., Mickelson, J.G. Jr., 2005. Tropical deforestation in Madagascar: analysis using hierarchical, spatially explicit, Bayesian regression models, Ecological Modelling, Vol. 185, pp. 105–131.
Verburg, P., Soepboer, W., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, M., Sharifa, M., Veldkamp, T., 2002. Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model, Environmental Management, Vol. 30, pp. 391–405.
Brandt, J.S., Haynes, M.A., Kuemmerle, T., Waller, D.M., Radeloff, V.C., 2013. Regime shift on the roof of the world: alpine meadows converting to shrublands in the southern Himalayas, Biological Conservation, Vol. 158, pp. 116–127.
Mohammady, M., Morady, H.R., Zeinivand, H., Temme, A.J.A.M, 2014. A Comparison of Supervised, Unsupervised and Synthetic Land use Classification Methods in the North of Iran, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, DOI 10.1007/s13762-014-0728-3.
Hudson, W., Ramm, C., 1987. Correct formula of the kappa coefficient of agreement. Photogramm. Engineering Remote Sensing, Vol. 53(4), pp. 421–422.
Foody, G.M., 2002. Status of land covers classification accuracy assessment, Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 80(1), pp. 185-201.
Schmitt-harsh, M., 2013. Landscape change in Guatemala: driving forces of forest and coffee agroforest expansion and contraction from 1990 to 2010, Applied Geography, Vol. 40, pp. 40-50
Gibreel, T.M., Herrmann, S., Berkhoff, K., Nuppenau, E.A., Rinn, A., 2014. Farm types as an interface between an agroeconomical model and CLUE-Naban land change model: Application for scenario modeling, Ecological Indicators, Vol. 36, pp. 766– 778.
Veldkamp, A., Fresco, L.O., 1996. CLUE-CR: an integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica, Ecological Modelling, Vol. 91, pp. 231–248 .
Chen, Y., Xu, Y., Yin, Y., 2009. Impacts of land use change scenarios on storm-runoff generation in Xitiaoxi basin, China, Quaternary International, Vol. 208, pp. 121-128.
Luo, G., Yin, C., Chen, X., Xu, W., Lu, L., 2010. Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-s model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang, China, Ecological Complexity, Vol. 7, pp. 198-207.
Zhang, Y. M., Zhao, S. D., Verburg, P., 2004. Scenario analysis of land use change in Horqin Desert and its surrounding area, Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 19, pp. 29–38.
20- Zhang, X., Zhao, L., Xiang, W., Li, N., Lv, L., Yang, X., 2012. A coupled model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change: A case study in Changqing, Jinan, China, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 106, pp. 51– 61.
Anderson, J.R., Hardy, E.E., Roach, J.T., Witmer, R.E., 1976. A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data. Washington, dc: U.S. Geological survey. No. Professional paper 964 .
Mendoza, L., Pena, E., Ramırez, M., Prieto, J., Galicia, L., 2006. Projecting land use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico, Applied Geography, Vol. 26, pp. 276-290.
Wu, Q., Li, H., Wang, R., Paulussen, J., He, Y., Wang, M., Wang, B., Wang, Z., 2006. Monitoring and predicting land use change in Beijing using remote sensing and GIS, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 78, pp. 322-333.
Brinkmann, K., Schumacher, J., Dittrich, A., Kadaore, I., Buerkert, A., 2012. Analysis of landscape transformation processes in and around four West African cities over the last 50 years, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 105, pp. 94–105.
Nazari samani, A., Heravi, H., Panahi, M., JafariShalamzari, M., 2013. The effect of change on land use and precipitation on the sediment in Taleghan basin. Journal of range and watershed management. 66: 157-165. (In Persian)
Pourghasemi, H.R, Mohammady, M., Noor, H., Afzali, S.F., 2022. Land Use Change Simulation Using CLUE-s Model in the Watershed of Doroodzan Dam, Journal of watershed management science, Vol. 16, pp. 23–31. (In Persian)
Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A., Fresco, L.O, 1999. Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China, Applied Geography, Vol. 19, pp. 211–233.
Priess, J.A., De Koning, G.H.J., Veldkamp, A., 2001. Assessment of interactions between land use change and carbon and nutrient fluxes in Ecuador, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 85, pp. 269–279.
Verburg, P.H., Schulb, C.J.E., Witte, N., Veldkamp, A., 2006. Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 114, pp. 39–56.
Lima, M.L., Zelaya, K., Massone, H., 2011. Groundwater vulnerability assessment combining the drastic and Dyna-Clue model in the Argentine Pampas, Environmental Management, Vol. 47, pp. 828–839.
Zheng, X.Q., Zhao, L., Xiang, W.N., Li, N., Lv, L.N., Yang, X., 2012. Coupled model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change: A case study in Changqing, Jinan, China, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 106, pp. 51– 61.
Mohammady, M., 2021. Land use change optimization using a new ensemble model in Ramian County, Iran, Environmental Earth Sciences, Vol. 80, pp. 1-9.
Aydın, A., Eker, R., 2022. Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye), Natural Hazards, Vol. 114, pp. 2683–2707.
_||_
Mohammady, M., 2014. Predicting Effects of Land Use Changes on Runoff Generation Using CLUE-s and WetSpa models for Management of Baghsalian Watershed in Golestan Province. Phd thesis, Tarbiat Modares University. 108 p. (In Persian)
Riebsame, W.E., Meyer, W.B., Turner I.I. B.L., Modeling land use and cover as part of global environmental change, Climate Change, Vol. 28: pp. 45-64 .
Thomson, A.M., Brown, R.A., Rosenberg, N.J., Srinivasan, R., Izaurralde, C., 2005. Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment, Climate Change, Vol. 69, pp. 67–88.
Mohammady, M., Moharami, S., 2022. Journal of Environmental Science Studies, Vol. 7, pp. 5711–5721. (In Persian)
Manson, S.M., 2005. Agent-based modeling and genetic programming for modeling land change in the Southern Yucata´n peninsular region of Mexico, Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, Vol. 111, pp. 47– 62.
Bolliger, J., 2005. Simulating complex landscapes with a generic model: sensitivity to qualitative and quantitative classifications, Ecological Complexity, Vol. 2, pp. 131–149.
Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A., 2004. Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales, Landscape Ecology, Vol. 19, pp. 77–98.
Agarwal, D.K., Silander, J.A. Jr., Gelfand, A.E., Deward, R.E., Mickelson, J.G. Jr., 2005. Tropical deforestation in Madagascar: analysis using hierarchical, spatially explicit, Bayesian regression models, Ecological Modelling, Vol. 185, pp. 105–131.
Verburg, P., Soepboer, W., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, M., Sharifa, M., Veldkamp, T., 2002. Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model, Environmental Management, Vol. 30, pp. 391–405.
Brandt, J.S., Haynes, M.A., Kuemmerle, T., Waller, D.M., Radeloff, V.C., 2013. Regime shift on the roof of the world: alpine meadows converting to shrublands in the southern Himalayas, Biological Conservation, Vol. 158, pp. 116–127.
Mohammady, M., Morady, H.R., Zeinivand, H., Temme, A.J.A.M, 2014. A Comparison of Supervised, Unsupervised and Synthetic Land use Classification Methods in the North of Iran, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, DOI 10.1007/s13762-014-0728-3.
Hudson, W., Ramm, C., 1987. Correct formula of the kappa coefficient of agreement. Photogramm. Engineering Remote Sensing, Vol. 53(4), pp. 421–422.
Foody, G.M., 2002. Status of land covers classification accuracy assessment, Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 80(1), pp. 185-201.
Schmitt-harsh, M., 2013. Landscape change in Guatemala: driving forces of forest and coffee agroforest expansion and contraction from 1990 to 2010, Applied Geography, Vol. 40, pp. 40-50
Gibreel, T.M., Herrmann, S., Berkhoff, K., Nuppenau, E.A., Rinn, A., 2014. Farm types as an interface between an agroeconomical model and CLUE-Naban land change model: Application for scenario modeling, Ecological Indicators, Vol. 36, pp. 766– 778.
Veldkamp, A., Fresco, L.O., 1996. CLUE-CR: an integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica, Ecological Modelling, Vol. 91, pp. 231–248 .
Chen, Y., Xu, Y., Yin, Y., 2009. Impacts of land use change scenarios on storm-runoff generation in Xitiaoxi basin, China, Quaternary International, Vol. 208, pp. 121-128.
Luo, G., Yin, C., Chen, X., Xu, W., Lu, L., 2010. Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-s model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang, China, Ecological Complexity, Vol. 7, pp. 198-207.
Zhang, Y. M., Zhao, S. D., Verburg, P., 2004. Scenario analysis of land use change in Horqin Desert and its surrounding area, Journal of Natural Resources, Vol. 19, pp. 29–38.
20- Zhang, X., Zhao, L., Xiang, W., Li, N., Lv, L., Yang, X., 2012. A coupled model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change: A case study in Changqing, Jinan, China, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 106, pp. 51– 61.
Anderson, J.R., Hardy, E.E., Roach, J.T., Witmer, R.E., 1976. A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data. Washington, dc: U.S. Geological survey. No. Professional paper 964 .
Mendoza, L., Pena, E., Ramırez, M., Prieto, J., Galicia, L., 2006. Projecting land use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico, Applied Geography, Vol. 26, pp. 276-290.
Wu, Q., Li, H., Wang, R., Paulussen, J., He, Y., Wang, M., Wang, B., Wang, Z., 2006. Monitoring and predicting land use change in Beijing using remote sensing and GIS, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 78, pp. 322-333.
Brinkmann, K., Schumacher, J., Dittrich, A., Kadaore, I., Buerkert, A., 2012. Analysis of landscape transformation processes in and around four West African cities over the last 50 years, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 105, pp. 94–105.
Nazari samani, A., Heravi, H., Panahi, M., JafariShalamzari, M., 2013. The effect of change on land use and precipitation on the sediment in Taleghan basin. Journal of range and watershed management. 66: 157-165. (In Persian)
Pourghasemi, H.R, Mohammady, M., Noor, H., Afzali, S.F., 2022. Land Use Change Simulation Using CLUE-s Model in the Watershed of Doroodzan Dam, Journal of watershed management science, Vol. 16, pp. 23–31. (In Persian)
Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A., Fresco, L.O, 1999. Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China, Applied Geography, Vol. 19, pp. 211–233.
Priess, J.A., De Koning, G.H.J., Veldkamp, A., 2001. Assessment of interactions between land use change and carbon and nutrient fluxes in Ecuador, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 85, pp. 269–279.
Verburg, P.H., Schulb, C.J.E., Witte, N., Veldkamp, A., 2006. Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 114, pp. 39–56.
Lima, M.L., Zelaya, K., Massone, H., 2011. Groundwater vulnerability assessment combining the drastic and Dyna-Clue model in the Argentine Pampas, Environmental Management, Vol. 47, pp. 828–839.
Zheng, X.Q., Zhao, L., Xiang, W.N., Li, N., Lv, L.N., Yang, X., 2012. Coupled model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change: A case study in Changqing, Jinan, China, Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 106, pp. 51– 61.
Mohammady, M., 2021. Land use change optimization using a new ensemble model in Ramian County, Iran, Environmental Earth Sciences, Vol. 80, pp. 1-9.
Aydın, A., Eker, R., 2022. Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye), Natural Hazards, Vol. 114, pp. 2683–2707.
