تحلیل نقش مؤلفههای شهر اسفنجی در ارتقاء تابآوری شهری در برابر مخاطره سیل (مطالعه موردی: شهر زنجان)
الموضوعات : Sustainable urban developmentحسین طهماسبی مقدم 1 , مجید حضرتی 2
1 - استادیار، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
2 - دانشجوی دکتر جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
الکلمات المفتاحية: تابآوری, شهر اسفنجی, مخاطرات, سیل, شهر زنجان,
ملخص المقالة :
توسعه شهری شتابان و افزایش سطوح نفوذناپذیر در شهر زنجان، همانند بسیاری از شهرهای دیگر، تابآوری در برابر مخاطرات سیل را کاهش داده و سیستمهای زهکشی سنتی را تحت فشار قرار داده است. با توجه به روند افزایشی رویدادهای اقلیمی شدید و تأثیرات نامتناسب آن بر جوامع آسیبپذیر، رویکردهای صرفاً مهندسیمحور پاسخگوی چالشهای ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی نیستند. در این راستا، اصول شهر اسفنجی با ارائه مزایای چندمنظوره زیستمحیطی، اکولوژیکی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی، ابزاری کارآمد برای ارتقاء تابآوری شهری در برابر سیلاب و سایر مخاطرات اقلیمی محسوب میشود. این مقاله با روش تحلیلی-اکتشافی به بررسی نقش مؤلفههای شهر اسفنجی در ارتقاء تابآوری شهری در برابر مخاطرات سیل در شهر زنجان میپردازد. گردآوری داده ها با مطالعات میدانی و کتابخانه ای انجام شد. جامعه آماری در قالب تحلیل دلفی فازی با مشارکت 30 متخصص رشتة برنامهریزی شهری در دانشگاهها انتخاب گردید. تحلیل داده ها نیز با استفاده از مدل تحلیل معادلات ساختاری و روش تحلیل مسیر در نرمافزار SmartPLS انجام شد. نتایج نشان میدهد کهبیشترین میزان بار عاملی مربوط به شاخص اجازه نفوذ آب باران به زمین با ضریب 911/0؛ فیلتر کردن آب باران با ضریب 962/0؛ کاهش اوج جریان رودخانه با ضریب 922/0؛ و حفظ فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی طبیعی با ضریب 936/0 است. در زمینه تاب آوری شهری بیشترین میزان بار عاملی مربوط به شاخص تعداد جمعیت در خطر با ضریب 979/0؛ نسبت کسب و کار بزرگ به کوچک با ضریب 919/0؛ ظرفیت پناهگاهها با ضریب 979/0 ؛ و بهداشت محیط شهری با ضریب 974/0 است. همچنین، طبق مدل معادلات ساختاری، فضاهای سبز و احیای آبراهههای طبیعی و سنگفرشهای نفوذپذیر، بیشترین تأثیر مثبت و معنادار را بر تابآوری شهری دارند. همچنین، تابآوری اجتماعی و نهادی-زیرساختی از بالاترین سطح تأثیرپذیری برخوردارند.
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