عوامل موثر بر احتمال طلاق در ایران با استفاده از روش داده های شبه تابلویی
الموضوعات : فصلنامه زن و جامعه
زهرا میلا علمی
1
(استاد/دانشگاه مازندران)
الکلمات المفتاحية: طلاق, مدل لاجیت, استانهای ایران, دادههای شبهتابلویی, ریز دادههای طرح هزینه درآمد خانوار,
ملخص المقالة :
طلاق، زنگ خطر جدی است که هزینه بهسامان سازی آن بیش از هزینههای مقابله با پیامدهای اجتماعی- اقتصادی و سیاسی آن است. از اینرو، بررسی علل و پیامد آن و راههای برونرفت از آن باید در برنامههای سیاستگذاران کلان کشور باشد. در این مقاله صرفا با هدف درک بهتر از ارتباط میان آموزش و اشتغال زنان با طلاق، عوامل اقتصادی اجتماعی موثر بر طلاق در سطح استانهای ایران با استفاده از ریزدادههای طرح هزینه-درآمد خانوار شهری در سال ۱۳۹۳ و کاربرد روش دادههای شبهتابلویی بررسی شدهاست. دادههای اولیه شامل 18885 خانوار شهری بودهاست که در مرحله اول زیر بخشی از دادهها شامل سرپرستان خانوار مرد و زنِ مطلقه و متاهل (۱۶۵۰۳ مشاهده) انتخاب و در سطح استانها دستهبندی شدند. براساس دادههای اولیه و دستهبندی شده، توصیف دادهای صورت گرفت. در مرحله بعد با روش دادههای شبهتابلویی دیتون(۱۹۸۵) و قزوانی و گواید(2001)، مدل تحقیق با لحاظ سن و سواد سرپرست خانوار با تاکید بر آموزش و اشتغال زنان، اندازه و درآمد خانوار، شاغل بودن سرپرست خانوار، به روش حداکثر درستنمایی برآورد گردید. براساس نتایج حاصل از برآورد، اندازه خانوار، اشتغال سرپرست خانوار و با سوادی او و درآمد خانوار احتمال طلاق را کاهش میدهد در حالیکه اثر تحصیلات عالی برای زنان و اشتغال آنان بر احتمال طلاق مثبت بودهاست. همچنن رابطه سن و طلاق U وارونه است. یعنی در سالهای اولیه زندگی مشترک و سالهای انتهایی آن، احتمال طلاق کمتر از سالهای میانی زندگی سرپرست خانوار است.
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