بررسی همگرایی بازار کشاورزی در کشورهای D8و G7: رویکرد مدل جاذبه
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیابوالفضل شاه‌آبادی 1 , یونس سلمانی 2 , سید آرش ولی‌نیا 3
1 - دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی؛ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا-همدان.
2 - دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی؛ دانشگاه تربیت مدرس-تهران.
3 - پژوهشگر بانک کشاورزی.
الکلمات المفتاحية: نرخ ارز, شاخص لیندر, کشورهای اسلامی و کشورهای توسعه یافته,
ملخص المقالة :
این مطالعه به بررسی و مقایسه همگرایی بازار محصولات کشاورزی در D8 و G7 طی دوره زمانی 1995-2012 با استفاده از مدل جاذبه پرداخته است. براساس نتایج برآورد، مدل جاذبه به ترتیب حدود 79 و 96 درصد از ترتیبات تجاری بخش کشاورزی بین کشورهای D8 و کشورهایG7 را توضیح می‌دهد. همچنین، نتایج مطالعه نشان دادند که ضریب برآوردی متغیر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی کشورهای i و j برای گروه D8 و G7 مثبت است. ضریب برآوردی متغیر شاخص لیندر نیز برای کشورهای گروهD8 بی معنی، اما برای کشورهایG7 معنیدار و مثبت بدست آمده است. ضریب برآوردی متغیر جمعیت کشور i برای D8 معنیدار و برابر 25/3- و برای کشورهایG7برابر 69/1 بدست آمد که در سطح قابل قبولی معنیدار است. ضریب برآوردی جمعیت کشور i برای کشورهای گروه D8 و G7 به ترتیب برابر 69/0 و 41/0 می‌باشد. گفتنی است، ضریب برآوردی متغیر نرخ ارز کشور i برای گروه G7 و D8 مثبت و معنیدار است در حالی که ضریب برآوردی متغیر نرخ ارز کشور j برای هر دو گروه از کشورهای مورد بررسی منفی است.
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