زیرکشت ارزیابی پیامدهای اقتصادی اثرات توسعه سطح زعفران در الگوی زراعی دشت قزوین
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
ابوذر پرهیزکاری
1
(دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، واحد تهران شرق، تهران، ایران.)
الکلمات المفتاحية: زعفران, برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت, دشت قزوین, الگوی زراعی, تحلیل سیاستی,
ملخص المقالة :
طی سال‌های اخیر، درآمد نسبتاً خوب، دوره کوتاه‌مدت کشت و نیازآبی محدود زعفران، کشاورزان دشت قزوین را بر آن داشته تا در اراضی مستعد خود به کشت این محصول روی آورند. بدین منظور، در این تحقیق اثرات افزایش سطح زیرکشت زعفران بر الگوی کشت، میزان مصرف نهاده‌ها و سود ناخالص کشاورزان دشت قزوین تحلیل و ارزیابی شد. برای تحقق این هدف، از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و رهیافت تابع تولید با کشش جانشینی ثابت (CES) استفاده شد. داده‌های موردنیاز مربوط به سال 93-1392 بود که با تکمیل پرسشنامه از 127 کشاورز نمونه جمع‌آوری شد. نتایج نشان داد که با ورود زعفران به الگوی فعلی مزارع نماینده، الگوی زراعی در جهت کاهش سطح زیرکشت محصولات با هزینه تولید بیشتر و نیازآبی بالاتر مانند ذرت دانه‌ای، چغندرقند و کلزا در سطح مزارع کوچک (از 78/-1 تا 9/13- درصد)، متوسط (از 92/4- تا 1/14- درصد) و بزرگ (از 05/7- تا 4/16- درصد) تغییر می‌کند. در این بین، کشاورزان با مزارع بزرگ بیشترین تغییرات را در الگوی کشت فعلی تجربه می‌کنند.
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