پیامدهای حذف یارانه نان بر تغییر نرخ وابستگی به واردات و امنیت غذایی
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیالهام سفلایی شهربابک 1 , سید حبیب الله موسوی 2 , سید ابوالقاسم مرتضوی 3
1 - کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
2 - استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
3 - استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
الکلمات المفتاحية: امنیت غذایی, حذف یارانه نان, الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه, نرخ وابستگی واردات,
ملخص المقالة :
در دوره‌های متمادی، نان به عنوان کالایی اساسی، سهمی شایان توجه در تأمین امنیت غذایی خانوارهای شهری و روستایی داشته‌است. با این توضیح، این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل وضعیت امنیت غذایی کشور همگام با حذف یارانه نان طرح‌ریزی شد. بدین منظور، ابتدا در ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1385، کالای نان از بخش محصولات غذا و آشامیدنی تفکیک شد. سپس سناریوهای حذف یارانه نان درکوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت در الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه (CGE) لحاظ شد. در نهایت، با بکارگیری شاخص نرخ وابستگی به واردات (IDR)، وضعیت امنیت غذایی بررسی شد. نتایج نشان از کاهش مقدار تولید، واردات و صادرات در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت خواهد داشت. هم‌چنین، حذف یارانه نان در بلندمدت موجب تأمین بیش‌تر امنیت غذایی از راه واردات خواهد‌شد. با اعمال سیاست یاد شده، تغییرات نرخ وابستگی به واردات افزایش خواهد یافت. مقدار افزایش در بخش کشاورزی نسبت به بخش غیرکشاورزی درصد کم‌تری را به خود اختصاص خواهد داد. بنابراین، پیشنهاد می‌شود، سیاست منحل کردن یارانه نان به عنوان یک سیاست بلندمدت 6 تا 10 ساله در دستور کار تصمیم‌سازان بخش‌های اقتصادی قرار گیرد.
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