تاثیر خشکسالی‌ اقلیمی دودهه (1390-1370) برناپایداری توسعه در دهستان هشیوارشهرستان داراب

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

یاسمین عطایی ¹ (دانش اموخته کارشناسی ارشد برنامه ریزی روستایی دانشگاه سیستان وبلوچستان)
سیروس قنبری ² (استادیار جغرافیای انسانی(برنامه ریزی روستایی)دانشکده جغرافیا وبرنامه ریزی محیطی،دانشگاه سیستان وبلوچستان،زاهدان،ایران.)
صمد فتوحی ³ (دانشیار جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان)

تاريخ الإرسال : 13 السبت , رمضان, 1440 تاريخ التأكيد : 09 السبت , جمادى الأولى, 1441 تاريخ الإصدار : 13 الجمعة , ذو الحجة, 1442

الکلمات المفتاحية: خشکسالی, شهرستان داراب, ناپایداری توسعه, دهستان هشیوار,

ملخص المقالة :

بدون تردید نخستین گام به منظور مقابله با خشکسالی و پیامدهای آن شناخت و درک دقیق این پدیده و تاثیرات ناشی از آن در ابعاد مختلف است تا بتوان براساس آن، راهبردها و راهکارهای اثربخشی را تدوین و به کار گرفت. از آنجا که دهستان هشیوار ازشهرستان داراب به عنوان دهستانی با قابلیت کشاورزی خوب شناخته شده است، به نظر می رسد اقتصاد این روستاها به میزان بارندگی و منابع آب وابستگی مستقیم داشته باشد. هدف از تحقیق حاضر، واکاوی و تبین اثرات خشکسالی بر اقتصاد و مهاجرت روستایی در دهستان هشیوار شهرستان داراب است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر روش  توصیفی- تحلیلی و از نظر ماهیت از نوع پژوهش های کاربردی بوده که نحوه گردآوری داده ها به صورت  کتابخانه ای و میدانی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق، 17روستای دهستان هشیوار (8403نفر از10روستای دارای جمعیت این دهستان)می باشدکه حجم نمونه براساس فرمول کوکران 286نفربرآورد گردید. برای تحلیل داده ها از آمار استنباطی(آزمون T ) و همچنین به منظور بررسی پایش خشکسالی از شاخص های معتبر استاندارد بارش (Spi) و درصد نرمال بارش (PNPI) استفاده گردید. نتایج بدست آمده براساس شاخص Spi  نشان می دهدکه طی سالهای1382، 1384 و 1387 منطقه مورد مطالعه با خشکسالی متوسط و درسال 1374 با ترسالی بسیار شدید مواجه بوده است. همچنین براساس شاخص PNPI در سالهای  1380و 1382 منطقه با خشکسالی ضعیف و در سال های 1378، 1379، 1386 با خشکسالی شدید و در سال های 1384، 1387 با خشکسالی بسیار شدید مواجه بوده است. خشکسالی های این دوره سبب کاهش سطوح زیر کشت در روستاهای دهستان هشیوار گردیده و ناپایداری توسعه در زمینه های اقتصادی واجتماعی بخصوص  کاهش درآمد ومهاجرت را به همراه داشته است.دربررسی پرسشنامه ای تأثیر خشکسالی بر ابعاداقتصادی و اجتماعی مردم روستاهای منطقه مورد مطالعه، 73 درصد به تاثیرخیلی زیاد و 25 درصد به تاثیر زیاد و2درصد به تاثیرکم آن اذعان داشته اند.

المصادر:

1. Afroozeh, Fatemeh, Chabokro, Gholamreza & Seyed Mohammad Reza Akbari (2009): "Negative Effects of Drought and Coping Strategies (Case Study: Sistan)" Proceedings of National Conference on Water Crisis Management, Marvdasht Islamic Azad University, March, pp. 94-69 .                      

2. Alipour, Hassan., Gharib, Ali and Hamed Chaharsoo Ghiyamin (2013): "Investigating the Effects of Drought on the Socio-Economic Situation of Farmers, Case Study: Wheat Farmers of Nehbandan", Watershed Research, No. 1, pp. 125-113.                                                                                               

3. Bazargan, Abbas, Zohreh, Sarmad &Elahe Hejazi (2007): Research in Behavioral Sciences, Agah Publishing, Fourteenth Edition, Tehran.                                                                                                                  

4. Bostani, Alireza, Najafpour, Bahram, and Khadijeh Javani (2013): An Analysis on the Impact of Drought on the Instability of Rural Settlements in Darab County. Journal of Regional Planning, Year 6, Issue 21, pp. 155-165.                                                                                                                       

5. Dracup.j.A,et al,(1980): “On the definition of drought, water Resource Res”.Vol.16, No 2 ,pp:297- 302.                                                                                                                                                                

6. -Faraji, Abdolreza (1995): The Economic Geography of Iran (Agriculture), Payame Noor University Press, Volume I, Second Edition, Tehran.                                                                                           

7. Farajzadeh, Manouchehr (1995): Analysis and Prediction of Drought in Iran. Doctoral dissertation on climatology. Faculty of Humanities. Tarbiat Modarres University.Tehran.                                    

8. -Farid, Yadollah (1353): Population Geography, University of Tabriz Publications. First Printing, Tabriz.                                                                                                                                                    

9. -Faweett,T.ajmes,B. (1982): “Reasons For moving and migration Belhavior,world   Develpment.” vol. 10,No4,pp98-129.

10. Friend, R., and Moench, M. (2013):’What is the purpose of urban climate resilience? Implications for addressing poverty and vulnerability”. Urban Climate, 6, 89-552.

11. -Gholami, Mohammad, Hakim Doost, Yasser and Moosavi Rastegar (2013): "The Relationship Between Climate Drought and Rural Settlement, Case Study: Zanjan Province". Journal of Rural Research and Planning. Volume 2, Number 3, pp. 209-187.                                                                     

12. -Ghayour, Hassan Ali, Masoudian, Seyed Abolfazl (1997): "The magnitude, extent and frequency of droughts in Iran", Geographical Research Journal, No. 45. Mashhad, pp. 25-38.

13. Governorate of Darab County (2011): Statistics and Political Divisions of Darab County.              

14. Gutman, G., Ignatov,A.(1988): “The derivation of green vegetation fraction from NOAA/AVHRR data for use in numerical weather prediction models”. International Journal of Remote sensing 19(8),1533-1543.

15. -Hashemi Nia, Majid (2004): Water Management in Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Publications, Mashhad.                                                                                                                           

16. Hejazi Zadeh, Zahra, Javizadeh, Saeed,& Seyed Mohammad Mousavi (2010): "Investigation of Climate Drought and its Impacts on Wheat Cultivation", Journal of Geography and Development. Year 8, Volume 24, pp. 27-27.                                                                                                                                    

17. -Hassaeizadeh, Abdolali (2007): Theories of Shiraz Immigration, Navid Publications, First Edition, Shiraz.                                                                                                                                                   

18. -Iran Census Center, General Population and Housing Censuses, 1995-1995.

19. -Javan, Jafar, Fal Suleyman, Mahmood (2008): "Water Crisis and the Need to Pay Attention to Agricultural Water Use in Birjand Plain", Journal of Geography and Development, Volume 11, Number 4, pp: 115-138.                                                                                                                          

20. -Kahrom, Ismail (1996): National Environmental Strategy and Sustainable Development Framework in the Islamic Republic, Environmental Protection Publications, First Edition, Tehran.  

21. Kamaneh, Seyed Abdolali, (1994): An Analysis of the Environmental Axes of Darab County, M.Sc., Isfahan University, pp. 124.

22. -Kardavani, Parviz (2007): Drought and the Ways to Deal with it in Iran, University of Tehran Press, Second Edition, Tehran.                                                                                                                        

23. -Karimi,V., Karimi,E.&Keshavarz.M.(2018):”Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran”. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17(1), 1-15.

24. -Keshavarz, Marzieh and Karami, Ezatollah (2008): "Structures Affecting Drought Management and its Consequences, Using Structural Equation Modeling", Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, Volume 12, Number 43, pp. 283- 276.                                                                             

25. -Lashani Zand, Mehran (2004): "Investigation of the severity, persistence and frequency of climate droughts". Third Regional Conference and First National Conference on Climate Change. University of Isfahan, pp. 135-149.                                                                                                                          

26. Madani, K., AghaKouchak, A., and Mirchi A. (2016):”Iran’s socioeconomic drought: Challenges of a waterbankrupt nation”. Iranian Studies, 49, 997-1016.

27. -Mahdavi, Davar (2003): The Role ofTourism in Developing Rural Areas around Cities and Presenting a Strategic Model (Case Study: Lavasan Minor Village), Master of Geography, Tarbiat Modares University.                                                                                                                                

28. -Mahdavi, Masoud, Taherkhani, Mehdi (2006): Application of Statistics in Geography Using Statistical Programs in Humanities (SPSS), Qomes Publication, Second Edition, Tehran.                  

29. -Mahdavi, Masoud, Mojtaba, Ghadiri Masoum, and Behroozmohammadi Yeganeh (2004): "The Role of Natural Geographical Factors in Rural Instability and Migration in Zanjan Province", Journal of Geographical Research, Thirty-Sixth Year, No. 49, pp. 221-203.

30. -Mahjourian, Hassan (2002): Investigation of Economic, Social and Demographic Factors Affecting the Satisfaction of Migrants in the Settlement of Falavarjan, MA Thesis, Shiraz, Department of Sociology.                                                                                                                                              

31. -Mohammadi Yeganeh, Behrouz, Hakim Doost, Yasser (2009): "Economic Impacts of Drought and its Impact on Villages' Instability in Zanjan Province (Case Study: Ghara-Poshtloo Village)", Proceedings of the Regional Conference on Water Crisis and Drought.                                              

32. -Mohammadi Yeganeh, Behrouz, Rezaei Pejand, Hojjat and Mehdi Cheraghi (2012): "Investigating the Impacts of Drought on the Economy of Rural Areas of Abarkouh during the Period of 1996-2005", Marvdasht Regional Planning Journal, Volume 2, Number 6, pp. 57-68. Islamic Azad University of Rasht, 2009, pp. 267-273.                                                                                                                        

33. -Nazari, Ali Asghar (1369): The Geography of the Iranian Population, Geology Publications, First Edition, Tehran.                                                                                                                                          

34. -Palmer،W.G. (1965):”Meteorological Drought Reserch paper”. No .45, u.s.weather Bureau. washington, D.C.Feb.,58p.

35. -Pourtahari, Mehdi, Rokneddin Eftekhari, Abdolreza &Nasrin Kazemi (2013): "The Role of Drought Risk Management Approach in Reducing Socio-Economic Vulnerability of Rural Farmers (Officials and Experts) Case Study: Solduz Village, West Azerbaijan" Volume 1, Number 4 , Page 1-22.                   

36. -Raziei, Tayeb, Shokouhi, Alireza and Bahram Saghafian (2007): "Prediction of Drought Severity and Continuity Using Probabilistic Methods and Time Series in Sistan and Baluchestan Province", Desert Journal, Year 8, Volume 5, pp. 24-39.                                                                                       

37. -Riahi, Vahid, Pashazadeh, Akbar (2013): “Economic and Social Impacts of Drought on Rural Areas of Grammy County Case Study: Azadloo District”, Geographical Perspective on Human Studies, Volume 8, Number 25, pp. 71-73.                                                                                                        

38. -Salem, Jalal (2008): "The Impact of Drought on the Tribal Process of Taheri Tribal Tribal Life in Tabas County", Journal of Rural and Development, Volume 11, Number 4, pp. 124-89.                      

39. -Saleh, Iraj, Dariush Mokhtari (2007): "An Analysis of the Economic and Social Dimensions of Drought and its Impact on Rural Families in the Sistan Region", Iranian Journal of Agricultural Extension and Education Science, Volume 3, Number 1, p.100                                                           

40. -Shakour, Ali, Sharafi, Hojatollah, Khatereh Nakai, and Mahtab Jafari (2016): "Drought Ranking of Villagers with Environmental Perception Approach in Rural Residents Case Study: Villages of Jiroft County", Regional Planning Journal, Volume 6, Number 23, p. 190                                                  

41. -Shakour, Ali, Shamseddini, Ali (2012): "The Role of Urban Associations in Balancing and Developing Rural Areas Case Study:Masiri City and Surrounding Villages", Landscape Quarterly, Volume 7, Number 21, Rasht, Pages 77- 63.                                                                                          

42. -Sheikhi, Mohammad (2003): Spontaneous Settlements, the Transition from the Settlement to a Pattern of Settlements around the Metropolis of Iran, Javid Press, First Edition, Tehran.                   

43. -Taherkhani, Mehdi (2001): "An Analysis of Factors Affecting Rural-Urban Migration", Journal of Geographical Research, Volume 16, Number 3. pp. 34-49.                                                                 

44. -Uzzi, Ramadan (2011): Geography of Hazards (Natural and Human Hazards). Tabriz: Tabriz University Press.                                                                                                                                       

45. -Valie, Masoumeh and Sohrabi, Ali Hossein (2009): "Environmental, Socio-Economic and Political Impacts of Drought", Proceedings of the Regional Conference on Water and Drought Crisis, Islamic Azad University of Rasht, pp. 849-845.                                                                                                

46. Zanjani, Habibollah (2001): Migration and Settlement, Samt Publish, Fifth Edition, Tehran.              

47. -Zolfaghari, MR (2005): "The Insurance Industry of Iran and Natural Disaster Risk Management, Goals and Challenges", Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 84, Winter 84, pp. 59-48.