بررسی تاثیرتوافقات آبراهام بر تعامل زیرمجموعه‌های مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه
الموضوعات :
1 - دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
2 - هیات علمی
الکلمات المفتاحية: توافقات آبراهام, مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه, زیرمجموعه‌های امنیتی منطقه‌ای, عادی‌سازی روابط,
ملخص المقالة :
عادی‌سازی روابط اسراییل با چهار کشور عربی شامل امارات متحده عربی، بحرین، مراکش و سودان در نیمه دوم سال 2020 که به توافقات آبراهام یا پیمان ابراهیم مشهور است، یکی از تحولات جدید و مهم در مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه است زیرا این توافقات، به یک دشمنی تاریخی بین اسراییل و این چهار کشور عربی پایان داد. از آنجایی که، این توافقات به دلیل ماهیت، روند و اهداف آن، پتانسیل تاثیرگذاری بر متغیرهای مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه را دارد، بررسی چگونگی تاثیرگذاری و پیامدهای آن بر تعامل زیرمجموعه‌های این مجموعه امنیتی، یک ضرورت پژوهشی و هدف این مقاله است. در همین راستا سوال اصلی مقاله حاضر این است که توافقات آبراهام چگونه بر تعامل زیرمجموعه‌های مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه تاثیرگذاشته است؟ پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی، با بهره‌گیری از نظریه مجموعه امنیتی بری بوزان و اله ویور، به دنبال پاسخ به پرسش فوق است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش، بیانگر آن است که توافقات آبراهام در سال 2020، از طریق نزدیکی و ادغام زیرمجموعه‌های شامات و خلیج‌فارس و به حاشیه بردن زیرمجموعه مغرب بر تعامل این زیرمجموعه‌ها در مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه تاثیر گذاشته است. این تاثیرات، به شکل افزایش تعاملات بین زیرمجموعه شامات و خلیج‌فارس، افزایش اهمیت زیرمجموعه خلیج‌فارس به عنوان کانون پویش‌های امنیتی و درگیر شدن همه بازیگران زیرمجموعه‌های شامات و خلیج‌فارس در پویش‌های مرتبط با این دو زیرمجموعه از یک سو و کاهش تعاملات زیرمجموعه مغرب با سایر زیرمجموعه‌ها و به حاشیه رفتن آن در پویش‌های مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه از سوی دیگر، نمود پیدا کرده است.
المصادر:
منابع فارسی: - آدمی، علی و دیگران (1397)، اسرائیل و عربستان سعودی: عصر جدیدی از همکاری دوجانبه، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، سال هفتم، شماره 72، زمستان 7932 (شماره پیاپی 72)
- ایرنا (14 مهر 1399)، مقام یمنی از همکاری‌های امنیتی حکومت پیشین کشورش با رژیم صهیونیستی گفت، قابل دسترسی در وب سایت خبرگزاری ایرنا به آدرس: https://irna.ir/xjBysW (بازیابی شده در تاریخ 25 فروردین 1403).
- ایسنا (14 مهر 1399)، مهر تأیید تحلیلگر اسرائیلی بر اسناد ارتش یمن درباره روابط نظام عبدالله صالح با رژیم صهیونیستی، قابل دسترسی در: isna.ir/xdGNQV (بازیابی شده در تاریخ 25 فروردین 1403)
- بوزان، بری (1381)، خاورمیانه: ساختاری همواره کشمکش‌زا، ترجمه: احمد صادقی، فصلنامه سیاست‌خارجی، سال شانزدهم، شماره 3، پاییز 1381، صص. 633-680.
- بوزان، باری و الی ویور (1388) مناطق و قدرت‌ها، ترجمه رحمان قهرمان‌پور، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
- چگنی زاده، غلامعلی و دیگران (1392). تاثیر تحولات سوریه بر الگوی تعاملی میان ایران و ترکیه, الگوی مفهومی و نظری. فصلنامه علمی-پژوهشی آفاق امنیت، 6(21)، 61-110.
- سازمند، بهاره و مهدی جوکار (1395)، مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای، پویش‌ها و الگوهای روابط کشورهای حوزه خلیج‌فارس، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک سال دوازدهم، شماره دوم، تابستان 1395، صص 151-177.
- محمودی، مسعود (1396). مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه در حال گذار (2003-2016)، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
- نیاکویی، سیدامیر و ستوده، علی اصغر. (1394). تأثیر منازعات داخلی سوریه و عراق بر مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه (2011- 2015). فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، 4(15) پیاپی 45، 153-177.
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منابع فارسی: - آدمی، علی و دیگران (1397)، اسرائیل و عربستان سعودی: عصر جدیدی از همکاری دوجانبه، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، سال هفتم، شماره 72، زمستان 7932 (شماره پیاپی 72)
- ایرنا (14 مهر 1399)، مقام یمنی از همکاری‌های امنیتی حکومت پیشین کشورش با رژیم صهیونیستی گفت، قابل دسترسی در وب سایت خبرگزاری ایرنا به آدرس: https://irna.ir/xjBysW (بازیابی شده در تاریخ 25 فروردین 1403).
- ایسنا (14 مهر 1399)، مهر تأیید تحلیلگر اسرائیلی بر اسناد ارتش یمن درباره روابط نظام عبدالله صالح با رژیم صهیونیستی، قابل دسترسی در: isna.ir/xdGNQV (بازیابی شده در تاریخ 25 فروردین 1403)
- بوزان، بری (1381)، خاورمیانه: ساختاری همواره کشمکش‌زا، ترجمه: احمد صادقی، فصلنامه سیاست‌خارجی، سال شانزدهم، شماره 3، پاییز 1381، صص. 633-680.
- بوزان، باری و الی ویور (1388) مناطق و قدرت‌ها، ترجمه رحمان قهرمان‌پور، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
- چگنی زاده، غلامعلی و دیگران (1392). تاثیر تحولات سوریه بر الگوی تعاملی میان ایران و ترکیه, الگوی مفهومی و نظری. فصلنامه علمی-پژوهشی آفاق امنیت، 6(21)، 61-110.
- سازمند، بهاره و مهدی جوکار (1395)، مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای، پویش‌ها و الگوهای روابط کشورهای حوزه خلیج‌فارس، فصلنامه ژئوپلیتیک سال دوازدهم، شماره دوم، تابستان 1395، صص 151-177.
- محمودی، مسعود (1396). مجموعه امنیتی منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه در حال گذار (2003-2016)، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
- نیاکویی، سیدامیر و ستوده، علی اصغر. (1394). تأثیر منازعات داخلی سوریه و عراق بر مجموعه امنیتی خاورمیانه (2011- 2015). فصلنامه پژوهش‌های راهبردی سیاست، 4(15) پیاپی 45، 153-177.
منابع لاتین: - Abadi, Jacob (2000), Pragmatism and Rhetoric in Libya's Policy Toward Israel, Journal of Conflict Studies, 20(2)., Available at: https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/JCS/article/view/4313/4929 (Visited April 21, 2024) - Abraham Accords Declaration (September 15, 2020), The Abraham Accords Declaration Available on the U.S. Department of State website, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Abraham-Accords-signed-FINAL-15-Sept-2020-508-1.pdf (Visited March 15, 2024) - Aftandilian, Gregory (Sep 13, 2023), The Recent Libya-Israel Debacle Is Symptomatic of Larger Problems, Available on the Arab Center Washington DC. website, https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-recent-libya-israel-debacle-is-symptomatic-of-larger-problems/ (Visited April 21, 2024) - Ahmed, Omar (June 29, 2020), Israel’s ambitions in south Yemen increase risk of conflict with Houthis, Available on the Middle East Monitor website, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200629-israels-ambitions-in-south-yemen-increase-risk-of-conflict-with-houthis/ (Visited April 17, 2024) - Alshamary, Marsin and Kevin Huggard (December 21, 2023), How Iraq is managing the Israel-Gaza crisis, Brookings Institution, Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-iraq-is-managing-the-israel-gaza-crisis/ (Visited April 20, 2024) - Bland, Archie and Bethan McKernan (2024). Who are the Houthis and how did the US and UK strikes on Yemen come about?, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/12/yemen-houthi-rebels-who-are-they-what-attacking-us-uk-airstrikes-red-sea-crisis (Visited April 17, 2024) - Burke, Jason. (November 7, 2023), A deadly cascade: how secret Hamas attack orders were passed down at last minute, The Guardian, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/07/secret-hamas-attack-orders-israel-gaza-7-october (Visited November 12, 2023) - Buzan, Barry, and Ole Wæver. (2003): Regions and powers: The structure of international security, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press - CNN (August 13, 2020), the full statement by the US, Israel and UAE on normalizing Israel-UAE relations, Available on the CNN website, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html (Visited March 15, 2024) - Dachtler, Petra (2022). From New to Normal: Two Years after the Abraham Accords. German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA Focus), Number 5. Available at, https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-81598-5 (Visited April 18, 2024) - Eck, Trevor (2019), Arab Spring in North Africa: An Analysis of Foreign Influence and Revolutions in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, Available at University at Albany, State University of New York Website: https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=curce (Visited May 27, 2024) - Elsaidi, Samira (September 8, 2023), How Libya-Israel talks 'scandal' exposed lack of popular mandate for normalisation, Available at: https://www.newarab.com/analysis/libya-israel-scandal-no-popular-mandate-normalisation (Visited April 21, 2024) - Ghebouli, Zine Labidine (November 2023). Algeria and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Reactions and Policies, Available on The European Institute of the Mediterranean website: https://www.euromesco.net/publication/algeria-and-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-reactions-and-policies/ (Visited April 22, 2024) - Goldsmith, Leon (October 21, 2023). Gaza, the Abraham Accords, Armageddon and a new path for diplomacy, Available on The Post website: https://www.thepost.co.nz/world-news/350096063/gaza-abraham-accords-armageddon-and-new-path-diplomacy (Visited October 25, 2023) - Guzansky, Yoel (2015), Israel and the Arab Gulf states: from tacit cooperation to reconciliation? 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