بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه: رویکرد پانل کوانتایل

الموضوعات :

ذر سعدون شنیشل ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد مالی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.)
یوسف محمدزاده ² (دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)،[e-mail])
رامین بشیر خداپرستی ³ (دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران،[e-mail] )
شهاب جهانگیری ⁴ (دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail])

تاريخ الإرسال : 06 الإثنين , محرم, 1445 تاريخ التأكيد : 21 السبت , محرم, 1446 تاريخ الإصدار : 25 الأربعاء , محرم, 1446

الکلمات المفتاحية: اقتصاد سایه, ریسک سیاسی, پانل کوانتایل ,

ملخص المقالة :

هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه است. بدین¬منظور با استفاده از داده¬های 52 کشور درحال¬توسعه و 38 کشور توسعه¬یافته به بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه طی دوره 2020-2000 پرداخته است. در این مقاله از رویکرد پانل کوانتایل به¬طور مجزا برای دو گروه از کشورهای توسعه¬یافته و در حال¬توسعه برای برآورد مدل تحقیق استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می¬دهد که ریسک سیاسی در همه دهکها و در هر دو گروه از کشورهای توسعه¬یافته و درحال¬توسعه تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه داشته است. بدین معنا که کشورهایی که ریسک¬های سیاسی بالاتری را تجربه می¬کنند حجم اقتصاد پنهان و غیررسمی بیشتر است. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق نشان می¬دهد که نرخ بیکاری، وفور منابع طبیعی و مالیات اثر مثبت بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه دارد، ولی کیفیت مقررات و آزادی اقتصادی به‌طور معنادار در هر دو گروه از کشورها موجب کاهش اندازه اقتصاد سایه می¬شوند. بر اساس نتایج، کاهش ریسک‌های سیاسی، بهبود مقررات دولتی در حمایت از بخش خصوصی، بهبود آزادی کسب¬وکار و تجارت، شفافیت مالی و عملکردی در بهره¬برداری از منابع طبیعی و همچنین اشتغال¬زایی و بهبود فضای کسب¬وکار از توصیه¬های سیاستی این مقاله است.

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