آینده پژوهی مدیریت سازمان های ورزشی ایران در افق 1414
محورهای موضوعی : سایر موضوعات مرتبط با مدیریت ورزشی
زهرا ناطقی
1
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پریوش نوربخش
2
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مهدی کهندل
3
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مهوش نوربخش
4
1 - 1- دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج ایران
2 - استاد گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران
3 - 3- دانشیار گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران
4 - استاد گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران
کلید واژه: برنامه ریزی راهبردی, عدم قطعیت, سازمان های ورزشی, مدیران ورزشی, آینده پژوهی,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف این پژوهش آینده پژوهی مدیریت سازمان های ورزشی ایران در افق 1414 بود. روش این پژوهش آمیخته و طرح آن از نوع همسوسازی بود. در مطالعه کیفی از روش تحلیل مضمون و در مطالعه کمی از روش آینده پژوهی استفاده شد. مشارکت کنندگان این مطالعه را صاحب نظران تشکیل می دادند که براساس روش نمونه گیری هدفمند و بر مبنای اشباع نظری 17 نفر انتخاب شدند. در بخش کیفی از مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته و در بخش کمی از پرسشنامه استفاده شد. جهت بررسی کیفیت و اعتباربخشی به نتایج کیفی در تحقیق حاضر از معیارهای ارزشیابی لینکلن و گابا استفاده شد و به منظور تأیید اعتبار ابزار اندازه گیری در بخش کمی، از روش روایی صوری و برای محاسبه ضریب قابلیت اعتماد از آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد. در بخش کیفی جهت تحلیل اطلاعات از کدگذاری و در بخش کمی از تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و تحلیل اثرات متقابل استفاده شد. یافته ها نشان داد آینده مدیریت سازمان های ورزشی متأثر از 36 عامل می باشد و از بین آن ها 7 نیروی پیشران به نام های سازمان های چندوجهی، تیم سازی، تفکر سیستمی، تصمیم گیری سریع، منعطف و پویا، تقسیم کار جدید با الگوی جدید مدیریتی، تغییر چینش سنتی سازمان های ورزشی و مهارت کار گروهی در ابعاد فراسازمانی بدیل های احتمالی آینده مدیریت سازمان های ورزشی هستند که منجر به تولید دو سناریوی گروه اندیشی و گروه زدگی می شوند. بر این مبنا لازم است مدیران ورزش را برای رویایی رویی با این موقعیت آماده کرد.
The purpose of this research was to study the future of the management of sports organizations in Iran in the horizon of 2035. The method of this research was mixed and its design was of alignment type. In the qualitative study, the theme analysis method was used, and in the quantitative study, the prospective research method was used. The participants of this study were experts who were selected based on the purposeful sampling method and based on the theoretical saturation of 17 people. A semi-structured interview was used in the qualitative part and a questionnaire was used in the quantitative part. In order to check the quality and validation of the qualitative results in the current research, the evaluation criteria of Lincoln and Gaba Cronbach's alpha was used to calculate the reliability coefficient. In the qualitative part, coding was used for data analysis, and in the quantitative part, cross effects analysis and mutual effects analysis were used. The findings showed that the future of sports organization management is affected by 36 factors, and among them, 7 driving forces are called multifaceted organizations, team building, system thinking, quick decision-making, flexible and Dynamic, new division of work with a new management model, changing the traditional arrangement of sports organizations and teamwork skills in extra-organizational dimensions are the possible future alternatives of sports organization management, which lead to the production of two scenarios of group thinking and grouping.
Ananthram, S., & Chan, C. (2021). Challenges and strategies for global human resource executives: Perspectives from Canada and the United States. European management journal, 31(3), 223-233.
Bakay, M. E. (2022). 21st Century Skills for Higher Education Students in EU Countries: Perception of Academicians and HR Managers. International Education Studies, 15(2), 14-24.
BeigiRizi, M., ShahTalabi, B., & Yarmohamedian, M. H. (2018). Identifying the competency components of managers in the future university in order to provide a suitable model for Islamic Azad Universities in Iran. Educational Management Innovations(51), 59-74.
Boak, G., & Crabbe, S. (2019). Evaluating the impact of coaching skills training on individual and corporate behaviour. European journal of training and development, 43(1/2), 153-165.
Dari, B., Arabi, S. M., & Moghadam, A. (2011). Contingency model of training senior managers. Public Administration Perspective(12), 35-64.
Davoine, E., & Schmid, S. (2022). Career patterns of top managers in Europe: Signs of further globalisation? European management journal, 40(4), 467-474.
Díez-Martín, F., Miotto, G., & Cachón-Rodríguez, G. (2022). Organizational legitimacy perception: Gender and uncertainty as bias for evaluation criteria. Journal of Business Research, 139, 426-436.
Glushman, Т. М. (2016). Components of professional culture of the future manager of organizations. ScienceRise: Pedagogical Education, 5(1), 8-13.
Hosseini, M. M., Talebpour, J., & Bagheri, A. (2019). A model in the development of managers' competencies with a future research approach in educational organizations. New developments in psychology, educational sciences and education(15), 1-16.
Izadi, F., Ahmadi, A., & Charehjoo, F. (2021). Future research of the development of Kurdistan province, issues and challenges facing it. Applied Research Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(62), 261-279.
Jafari, A., Sharififar, F., & Alam, S. (2019). The role of women in the country's sports management with a future-research approach. . Sports management studies, 11(58), 17-38.
Jajermi, H., Pourezat, A. A., & Durrani, K. (2021). Designing a manager training model for the future. Human Resources Education and Development Quarterly, 8(31), 177-208.
Kotter, J. P., Kim, W. C., & Mauborgne, R. A. (2011). HBR's 10 Must Reads on Change Management (including featured article" Leading Change," by John P. Kotter). Harvard Business Press.
Le Blanc, P. M., González-Romá, V., & Wang, H. (2021). Charismatic leadership and work team innovative behavior: The role of team task interdependence and team potency. Journal of Business and Psychology, 36, 333-346.
Lincoln, Y. S., & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic inquiry. sage.
Lussier, R. N., & Kimball, D. C. (2009). Applied sport management skills. Human Kinetics.
Mariam, F., Hayat, B., & Issam, B. (2022). The impact of the health crisis on sports organizations. African Scientific Journal, 3(11), 1-16.
Mushure, G. O. N. (2015). Perception of the External Environment in Zimbabwe 2008–2014: A case study of Delta Corporation Limited Zimbabwe. International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research, 22(2), 329-340.
Oliver, J. J., & Parrett, E. (2018). Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning. Business Horizons, 61(2), 339-352.
Pashutan, M., Abdolvand, N., & Harandi, S. R. (2022). The impact of IT resources and strategic alignment on organizational performance: The moderating role of environmental uncertainty. Digital Business, 2(2), 100026.
Pedersen, P. M., & Thibault, L. (2014). Contemporary sport management, 5E. Human Kinetics.
Qader, K. S., Ismeal, B. A., Aziz, H. M., Hamza, P. A., Sorguli, S., Sabir, B. Y., Anwar, G., & Gardi, B. (2021). The effect of human resources management skills on accounting information quality in kurdistan public sector. International Journal of Humanities and Education Development (IJHED), 3(3), 131-143.
RahimiKia, Y., Kohandal, M., Khalifa, S. N., & Khodayari, A. (2022). The career path development model in physical education managers of Tehran Municipality. Research in educational sports accepted for online publication.
RezaiGhadi, M., & Rafie, H. (2021). Examining the applications of future research in public policy making. Policy sphere, 8(27), 85-102.
RezayanGhayebashi, A., Marzban, E., & Jahanshahi, O. (2020). Entertainment scenarios in the image of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the horizon of 2025. Communication Research Quarterly, 27(3), 149-179.
Seligman, M. E., & Tierney, J. (2017). We aren’t built to live in the moment. The New York Times, 19.
Seppänen, K. P. (2020). Sport managers in Finland University of Jyväskylä]. Finland.
ShaholiKohshori, J., Askari, A. R., Nazari, R., & Naghsh, A. R. (2020). Compilation of educational sport strategies in Iran based on scenario. Research in educational sports, 8(21), 223-250.
Sharbatzadeh, R., Foladie, J., Nouri, M., & Navkhasi, J. (2022). Prospective research on the development of human resources of the physical training organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army with the approach of structural analysis. Two-quarter journal of sports sciences and martial arts, 2(3), 1-17.
Shen, J., & Tang, C. (2018). How does training improve customer service quality? The roles of transfer of training and job satisfaction. European management journal, 36(6), 708-716.
Škorić, S. (2018). Characteristics of sport managers and challenges facing sport organisations. 9th International Conference “An enterprise odyssey: Managing change to achieve quality development,
Strengers, Y., Pink, S., & Nicholls, L. (2019). Smart energy futures and social practice imaginaries: Forecasting scenarios for pet care in Australian homes. Energy Research & Social Science, 48, 108-115.
Yaghi, A., & Bates, R. (2020). The role of supervisor and peer support in training transfer in institutions of higher education. International Journal of Training and Development, 24(2), 89-104.
_||_Ananthram, S., & Chan, C. (2021). Challenges and strategies for global human resource executives: Perspectives from Canada and the United States. European management journal, 31(3), 223-233.
Bakay, M. E. (2022). 21st Century Skills for Higher Education Students in EU Countries: Perception of Academicians and HR Managers. International Education Studies, 15(2), 14-24.
BeigiRizi, M., ShahTalabi, B., & Yarmohamedian, M. H. (2018). Identifying the competency components of managers in the future university in order to provide a suitable model for Islamic Azad Universities in Iran. Educational Management Innovations(51), 59-74.
Boak, G., & Crabbe, S. (2019). Evaluating the impact of coaching skills training on individual and corporate behaviour. European journal of training and development, 43(1/2), 153-165.
Dari, B., Arabi, S. M., & Moghadam, A. (2011). Contingency model of training senior managers. Public Administration Perspective(12), 35-64.
Davoine, E., & Schmid, S. (2022). Career patterns of top managers in Europe: Signs of further globalisation? European management journal, 40(4), 467-474.
Díez-Martín, F., Miotto, G., & Cachón-Rodríguez, G. (2022). Organizational legitimacy perception: Gender and uncertainty as bias for evaluation criteria. Journal of Business Research, 139, 426-436.
Glushman, Т. М. (2016). Components of professional culture of the future manager of organizations. ScienceRise: Pedagogical Education, 5(1), 8-13.
Hosseini, M. M., Talebpour, J., & Bagheri, A. (2019). A model in the development of managers' competencies with a future research approach in educational organizations. New developments in psychology, educational sciences and education(15), 1-16.
Izadi, F., Ahmadi, A., & Charehjoo, F. (2021). Future research of the development of Kurdistan province, issues and challenges facing it. Applied Research Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(62), 261-279.
Jafari, A., Sharififar, F., & Alam, S. (2019). The role of women in the country's sports management with a future-research approach. . Sports management studies, 11(58), 17-38.
Jajermi, H., Pourezat, A. A., & Durrani, K. (2021). Designing a manager training model for the future. Human Resources Education and Development Quarterly, 8(31), 177-208.
Kotter, J. P., Kim, W. C., & Mauborgne, R. A. (2011). HBR's 10 Must Reads on Change Management (including featured article" Leading Change," by John P. Kotter). Harvard Business Press.
Le Blanc, P. M., González-Romá, V., & Wang, H. (2021). Charismatic leadership and work team innovative behavior: The role of team task interdependence and team potency. Journal of Business and Psychology, 36, 333-346.
Lincoln, Y. S., & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic inquiry. sage.
Lussier, R. N., & Kimball, D. C. (2009). Applied sport management skills. Human Kinetics.
Mariam, F., Hayat, B., & Issam, B. (2022). The impact of the health crisis on sports organizations. African Scientific Journal, 3(11), 1-16.
Mushure, G. O. N. (2015). Perception of the External Environment in Zimbabwe 2008–2014: A case study of Delta Corporation Limited Zimbabwe. International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research, 22(2), 329-340.
Oliver, J. J., & Parrett, E. (2018). Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning. Business Horizons, 61(2), 339-352.
Pashutan, M., Abdolvand, N., & Harandi, S. R. (2022). The impact of IT resources and strategic alignment on organizational performance: The moderating role of environmental uncertainty. Digital Business, 2(2), 100026.
Pedersen, P. M., & Thibault, L. (2014). Contemporary sport management, 5E. Human Kinetics.
Qader, K. S., Ismeal, B. A., Aziz, H. M., Hamza, P. A., Sorguli, S., Sabir, B. Y., Anwar, G., & Gardi, B. (2021). The effect of human resources management skills on accounting information quality in kurdistan public sector. International Journal of Humanities and Education Development (IJHED), 3(3), 131-143.
RahimiKia, Y., Kohandal, M., Khalifa, S. N., & Khodayari, A. (2022). The career path development model in physical education managers of Tehran Municipality. Research in educational sports accepted for online publication.
RezaiGhadi, M., & Rafie, H. (2021). Examining the applications of future research in public policy making. Policy sphere, 8(27), 85-102.
RezayanGhayebashi, A., Marzban, E., & Jahanshahi, O. (2020). Entertainment scenarios in the image of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the horizon of 2025. Communication Research Quarterly, 27(3), 149-179.
Seligman, M. E., & Tierney, J. (2017). We aren’t built to live in the moment. The New York Times, 19.
Seppänen, K. P. (2020). Sport managers in Finland University of Jyväskylä]. Finland.
ShaholiKohshori, J., Askari, A. R., Nazari, R., & Naghsh, A. R. (2020). Compilation of educational sport strategies in Iran based on scenario. Research in educational sports, 8(21), 223-250.
Sharbatzadeh, R., Foladie, J., Nouri, M., & Navkhasi, J. (2022). Prospective research on the development of human resources of the physical training organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army with the approach of structural analysis. Two-quarter journal of sports sciences and martial arts, 2(3), 1-17.
Shen, J., & Tang, C. (2018). How does training improve customer service quality? The roles of transfer of training and job satisfaction. European management journal, 36(6), 708-716.
Škorić, S. (2018). Characteristics of sport managers and challenges facing sport organisations. 9th International Conference “An enterprise odyssey: Managing change to achieve quality development,
Strengers, Y., Pink, S., & Nicholls, L. (2019). Smart energy futures and social practice imaginaries: Forecasting scenarios for pet care in Australian homes. Energy Research & Social Science, 48, 108-115.
Yaghi, A., & Bates, R. (2020). The role of supervisor and peer support in training transfer in institutions of higher education. International Journal of Training and Development, 24(2), 89-104.