بررسی و تحلیل اقتصادی متغیرهای کلان موثر بر شاخص تمایل به تاهل در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه زن و جامعه

مهدی گلدانی ¹ , لیلا سادات زعفرانچی ²

1 - دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار،ایران
2 - پژوهشکده اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/02/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/11/18 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/02/01

کلید واژه: ARDL, اقتصاد خانواده, نرخ ازدواج, نرخ طلاق, شاخص تمایل به تاهل,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف: اقتصاد جدید خانوار (NHE) با پایه گذاری ادبیات اولیه توسط ساموئلسون (1956) و گسترش آن توسط بکر (1973) شناخته می شود. وجود ارتباطات اثبات شده فی مابین تصمیم به تاهل با متغیرهای استراتژیکی از جمله نرخ ازدواج ، زاد و ولد، سن ازدواج و نرخ طلاق ، بی گمان اهمیت شناسایی رفتار تمایل به تاهل را به جهت اثرگذاری بر مقولات مهم اجتماعی دیگر روشن می کند. مطالعه حاضر ضمن معرفی شاخص تمایل به تاهل به عنوان مولفه‌ی تبیین کننده از وضعیت تشکیل و انحلال خانواده در تلاش جهت بررسی عوامل اقتصاد کلان موثر بر این شاخص است.
روش: جهت برآورد الگوی تحقیق از روش ARDL استفاده شده و ضمن آزمونهای مرتبط نتایج در دو بازه کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت ارائه شده است.
یافتهها: نتایج نشان می‌دهدکه رشدتولید ناخالص داخلی د کوتاه مدت وبلند مدت ب تمایل به تاهل دارای اثرمثبت ومعنادار است وبنابراین در دوران رونق اقتصادی با افزایش سطح درآمدهای خانوار، تمایل آنها به حفظ رابطه مشترک بیشتر میگردد. درکوتاه و بلند مدت متغیر ضریب جینی ونابرابری توزیع درآمد ب تمایل به تاهل اثر منفی و معنادار دارد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد نرخ بیکاری و نرخ تورم حداقل در کوتاه مدت اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر شاخص تمایل به تاهل داردکه می‌تواند ازکاهش طلاق به جهت صرفه‌های به مقیاس زندگی مشترک، افزایش ازدواج به جهت تسهیم درهزینه‌ها وجلوگیری ازتحمیل هزینه‌های انجام طلاق منتج گردد. با افزایش سرمایه انسانی، تصمیم به تاهل به جهت تاثیر بر چانه‌زنی افراد تحت تاثیر قرار گرفته و تمایل به تاهل بطور معناداری کاهش می‌یابد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: The New Home Economy is known for the founding of the early literature by Samuelson and its expansion by Becker. The existence of proven correlations between the decision to marry with strategic variables such as marriage rate, birth rate, marriage age, and divorce rate undoubtedly highlights the importance of identifying marital desire behaviors in order to influence other important social categories. The present study, while introducing the marital desire index as an explanatory component of the status of family formation and dissolution, is trying to examine the macroeconomic factors affecting this index.
Methods: ARDL method was used to estimate the research model and while performing related tests, the results were presented in both short and long term.
Results: The results show that the growth of GDP in the short and long term has a positive and significant effect on the marital desire index. In the short and long term, the Gini coefficient and income inequality inequality has a negative and significant effect on the marital desire index. Unemployment rate and inflation rate at least in the short term have a positive and significant effect on the marital desire index. Inflation also has a positive effect on the marital desire index in the long run.
Conclusion: We can expect that in periods of economic prosperity, married to rise despite high rates of inflation lasting negative effects on the purchasing power of households on welfare and leaves.

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