آینده‌پژوهی چالش‌های حکمروایی شهری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی با تأکید بر بحران سیل (مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر اهواز)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
مصطفی محمدی ده چشمه
1
(دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران)
نازنین حاجی پور
2
(دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز،اهواز، ایران)
کلید واژه: سیل, حکمروایی شهری, تغییرات اقلیمی, مدیریت بحران, کلانشهر اهواز,
چکیده مقاله :
تغییرات اقلیمی، از یکسو و آسیب‌پذیری بالای شهر اهواز در مقابله و مدیریت بحران سیل در سال‌های گذشته، ضرورت یک استراتژی آینده نگر در حکمروایی این شهر را اجتناب ناپذیر نموده است. پژوهش حاظر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش شناخی توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است. در بخش نخست با مرور مبانی و استخراج مهمترین عوامل کلیدی حکمروایی سیل با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و نظرخواهی از 30 کارشناس، شاخص‌های اجماع و قطعیت، اولویت و اهمیت به ارزیابی عوامل پرداخته شد. در مجموع ۴3 پیشران کلیدی جهت ورود به نرم افزار Micmac تعیین شد. پس از تهیه ماتریس اولیه اثرات متقاطع در نرم افزار Micmac مشخص شده است که از بین ۱۸۰۶ ارزش محاسبه شده ۷۰۱ مورد از فاکتورهای علی دارای اثر بالایی بر استقرار الگوی حکمروایی در برابر مدیریت تغییرات اقلیمی با تأکید بر سیلاب شده است. همچنین 848 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری متوسط و 257 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری کم و 43 مورد بی‌تاتیر ارزیابی شده‌اند. ارزیابی وضعیت اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری عوامل کلیدی نشان می‌دهد که از بین ۸ عامل اصلی، مشارکت، پاسخگویی، عدالت و قانونمندی اثرگذارترین ابعاد بر روند تحولات کلانشهر اهواز بوده‌اند. همچنین از 10 پیشران کلیدی و مهم متغیرهای نقش موثر اعمال تصمیمات شهروندان در تهیه طرحهای توسعه شهری و پاسخگویی مدیران و مسئولان شهری به شهروندان در مواقع بروز بحران به عنوان متغیرهای دو وجهی و تاثیرگذار دارای بیشترین اهمیت بوده‌اند. وضعیت‌های مختلف عوامل سیاسی و نهادی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی و اکولوژیک و سایر مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر روند تحولات حکمروایی احتمال وقوع 8 سناریو را در ارتباط با عوامل کلیدی و احتمالی پیش رو (مطلوب، میانه و فاجعه)، را بیش از سایر سناریوها دانسته و احتمال وقوع سایر سناریوها را در حد بسیار ناچیز و ضعیف ارزیابی کرده است. از 44 پیشران کلیدی،24 پیشران در محدوده ریسک و شرط و تأثیرپذیر یا وابسته قرار دارند. براساس تحلیل داده‌ها، 8 سناریو قوی یا محتمل، 14 سناریو با سازگاری بالا یا باورکردنی و 4319 سناریو ضعیف ارزیابی شدند.
Climate change, on the one hand, and the high vulnerability of the city of Ahvaz in dealing with and managing the flood crisis in recent years, has made the necessity of a forward-looking strategy in governing this city inevitable. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of acquaintance method. In the first part, by reviewing the basics and extracting the most important key factors of flood governance, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, the indicators of consensus and certainty, priority and importance were evaluated. A total of 43 key drivers were identified to enter the Micmac software. After preparing the initial matrix of cross-effects in Micmac software, it has been determined that out of 1806 calculated values, 701 of the causal factors have a high effect on establishing a governance model against climate change management with emphasis on floods. Also, 848 cases with moderate impact, 257 cases with low impact and 43 cases with higher impact have been evaluated. Assessing the status of impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the eight main factors, participation, accountability, justice and lawfulness have been the most influential dimensions on the development of the metropolis of Ahvaz. Also, among the 10 keys and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the response of city managers and officials to citizens in times of crisis have been the most important as two-dimensional and effective variables. Different situations of political and institutional, economic, environmental and ecological factors and other components affecting the process of governance developments increase the probability of 8 scenarios in relation to key and possible factors ahead (favorable, middle and catastrophic), more than other scenarios. Has known and evaluated the possibility of other scenarios to occur very little and weakly. Of the 44 key drivers, 24 are in the risk and condition range and are affected or dependent. Based on the data analysis, 8 scenarios were evaluated as strong or probable, 14 scenarios with high or reliable compatibility and 4319 scenarios as weak. Extended Abstract Introduction Urban society, especially in its modern forms, is constantly and extensively exposed to a variety of hazards. The consequences of this security instability in today's cities have led to the emergence of the idea of the city as a generator of hazards and a dangerous city in the industrialized world. Therefore, reducing the damage and injuries related to crises and disasters requires management, because the occurrence of natural crises and lack of proper planning to deal with the damage and the resulting message, can lead to the loss of resources and achievements. Meanwhile, climate change, rainfall irregularities and uncertainty in predicting on the one hand and the high vulnerability of Ahvaz city in dealing with and managing flood crises in recent years, has made inevitable the need for a forward-looking strategy to address the challenges of climate change in this city. Methodology The research method is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods based on futuristic research approach and exploratory analysis using Micmac software. In the first step, by reviewing the theoretical foundations and elaborating the most important indicators of governance, from the documentary method including survey technique and questionnaire tools and interviews with the Delphi community, the drivers of urban governance have extracted. The certainty and priority of the propellants have been used. Statistical sample size was done using available sampling method, 30 specialists by non-random sampling method or purposive sampling. Next, in the framework of the cross-effects matrix, the Delphi group was asked to assign a score range of 0 to 3 to each propulsion based on the process of influence and influence (pairwise comparison) of propellants on each other. Number 1 has little or no effect, number 2 with moderate impact, the numan ber 3 a high impact and the letter P means potential impact on the process of direct and indirect impact of each propulsion reciprocally. The method of analysis of interactions is expert-centered technique that reflects quantitative results. Results and Discussion The aim of this study is identify and rank the key variables and effective drivers of urban governance in the face of climate challenges and especially the flood crisis in the metropolis of Ahvaz. The analyze of the relationship between these variables is based on the futuristic approach. First, 30 specialists and executive officials who should be involved in the discussion were identified and selected, and then the most important drivers of regeneration affecting the regeneration were identified and scored by Delphi method and a questionnaire, and finally 43 sub-drivers in 8 factors. Key Partnership (P) Consensus (C), Accountability (R), Justice (J), Legitimacy (L), Transparency (T), Accountability (Re) and Efficiency and Efficiency (E) Cross-matrices were formed and in the next phase, the obtained weights were applied using Micmac software. The results of the study showed that among the 18 factors, 10 key and important drivers of governance in Ahvaz metropolis against climate change, which are the same two-dimensional and effective variables. The most important of these indicators are:the Effective role of citizens in making decisions in urban development plans, accountability of city managers and officials to citizens, neutrality and equality before the law, use of experienced and specialized people in urban management, preference of collective interests over personal, the effectiveness of city managers' actions in the face of crisis, accountability of councils and description of urban development programs and plans, especially preventive, selection and meritocracy in the selection of urban managers, involvement with accountability of urban managers in the management of physical development of the city and city managers ask citizens to participate in Affairs before and after the crisis. Conclusion The results of the research indicate that out of 1806 calculated values, 701 of the causal factors have a high effect on the establishment of the governance model against climate change management with emphasis on floods. Also, 848 cases with moderate impact, 257 cases with low impact and 43 cases with higher impact have been evaluated. Assessing the effectiveness of the key factors shows that among the 8 main factors, participation, accountability, justice and lawfulness have been the most influential dimensions on the development process of Ahvaz metropolis. Also, out of 10 key and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the response of city managers and officials to citizens in times of crisis have been the most important as two-dimensional and effective variables.
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