تبیین رابطه بین سطوح توسعه یافتگی و امنیت در استان های ایران
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
علی امیری
1
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران)
سارا آموزگار
2
(کارشناس ارشد برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)
مسلم عارفی
3
(دکتری برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران)
کلید واژه: توسعه, ایران, مدل ویکور, امنیت, نابرابری,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه، امنیت یکی از ارکان اصلی توسعه محسوب میشود و همان گونه که وضعیت بسیاری از کشورهای ناامن مثل افغانستان و عراق نشان میدهد، بدون برقراری امنیت، توسعه امکانپذیر نیست. این دو از رابطه مستقیمی برخوردار بوده و با فروکش کردن سطح امنیت، سطح توسعه نیز تقلیل مییابد. شواهد نشان میدهد که سطوح امنیت متفاوت در فضاهای جغرافیایی کشورها، سطوح متفاوتی از توسعه را به دنبال خواهد داشت. کشور ایران از جمله کشورهایی است که چه از منظر توسعه و چه از منظر امنیت از گوناگونی فراوانی برخودار است و واحدهای کلان آن تحت عنوان استان با همدیگر تفاوتهای فراوانی دارند. لذا، سطح توسعه هر استان میتواند با سطح امنیت آن رابطه خاصی داشته باشد. بر همین اساس تحقیق حاضر بر آن است تا با بررسی وضعیت توسعه یافتگی و امنیت در سطح استانهای کشور ارتباط و همبستگی این دو مؤلفه را بسنجد. برای انجام این پژوهش، دادهها به صورت اسنادی گردآوری شده و با استفاده از مجموعاً 32 شاخص برای سنجش توسعه یافتگی و 15 شاخص برای امنیت استانها در قالب مدل ویکور مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفتهاند. نتایج نشان میدهد که همبستگی بین متغیرها مثبت و مستقیم میباشد و نقشه توسعه یافتگی استانهای کشور با نقشه میزان جرمخیزی آن تا حد بسیار بالایی همخوانی و مطابقت دارد و این مطابقت و همبستگی در میان متغیرهای مورد بررسی به ترتیب بین میزان امنیت و سطح توسعه اقتصادی- صنعتی و خدمات عمومی و زیربنایی با مقادیر 0.655 و 0.588 میباشد که نشان دهنده اهمیت این دو بخش در ارتقای سلامت و امنیت جامعه میباشد.
Today, one of the main pillars of development is security and as the situation in many insecure countries, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, shows development is not possible without security. both have a direct relationship and with the reduction of the level of security, the level of development is also reduced. Evidence suggests that different levels of security in countries' internal geographica spaces will lead to different levels of development. Iran is among the countries that both in terms of development and security have a great diversity and its major units under the province are significant differences with each other. Therefore, the level of development of each province can have a special relationship with its level of security. Accordingly, the present study aims to examine the relationship between development and security in the provinces of the country by assess the status of both. To conduct this research, the data were collected by documentary method and analyzed using a total of 32 indicators to measure development and 15 indicators to assess the security situation of the provinces in the form of the Vikor model. The results show that the correlation between variables is positive and direct and the development map of the country's provinces is very consistent with the crime rate map and this correlation between the studied variables is between the level of security, respectively. And the level of economic-industrial development and public and infrastructure services with values of 0.655 and 0.588, which shows the importance of these two sectors in improving the health and safety of society.
Extended abstract
Introduction
Today, the goal of any kind of development planning and space organization, On the one hand is achieving a spatial balance and on the other hand, maintaining political unity and establishing security; because one of the main functions of development programs is to achieve spatial justice and balanced development. Therefore, the existence of geographical injustice and uneven development at the regional level can cause insecurity and consequently hamper national solidarity. Inequality between regions can lead to political-security instability and provide a context for the development of critical areas. Therefore, security is one of the basic bases for providing growth and development path, which is becoming more and more important for further development. Since these two categories of development and security are much intertwined and the lack and fluctuation in each of them can cause irreparable damage to the opposite category and ultimately the entire management system of a country, it is necessary to Using scientific indicators to evaluate each, their relationship should be measured. Accordingly, since Iran is one of the countries that enjoys regional diversity, both in terms of natural and human standards, and this diversity can be seen in abundance in both development and security, It is necessary to evaluate the issue of the relationship between these two issues in order to provide a more balanced development for this country in future planning by identifying and mastering this issue.
Accordingly, it is necessary to study the situation of the provinces of the country in various dimensions, especially the situation of the components of security and development. The available evidence and studies show a huge difference in the levels of development and disruption in the space organization and the territorial arena of the country. Therefore, considering this important, this research is a percentage to ask the following questions and extract their answers: 1- how is the security situation based on the indicators defined in the provinces of Iran? 2- How is the development situation based on the defined indicators in the provinces of Iran? And finally 3- What is the relationship between security and development indicators in Iran province?
Methodology
The method of data collection in this research is documentary and an attempt has been made to use various available sources related to the research subject such as regional accounts of the province, statistical yearbooks and general population and housing census. The studied indicators for the analysis of development and leveling of the provinces of the country are in two levels of security and development. Vickor model has been used to level the provinces and Pearson correlation method has been used to determine the relationship between security and development status due to the distance between the research variables. In this research, development is considered as a predictor variable and security is a function variable (criterion). Considering the scope of the subject and the difference between the components and variables, it is necessary to use a model that can take into account the differences between the variables while ranking the provinces of the country. One of the most suitable models for this purpose is Vicor multivariate model; because the advantage of Vikor model is that by always scoring the variables by entropy method and determining their weight, it takes into account and finalizes the numerical differences between them.
Results and discussion
Based on the research findings, to assess the development situation, the provinces of the country were evaluated in four areas of health, public and infrastructure services, cultural and educational, industrial and economic, and the spatial distribution of these provinces was determined based on the ranking very enjoyed, enjoyed, semi-enjoyed, deprived and very deprived. The Provinces of Yazd and Semnan are among very enjoyed provinces in all four constituencies and Sistan and Baluchistan province is very deprived province in all four constituencies. The rest of the provinces do not have a fixed position in all four areas and are changing. In ranking the provinces based on security indicators into five levels: very insecure, insecure, semi- insecure, insecure and very insecure, the provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan, Lorestan, Hamedan, Kurdistan, Alborz and Isfahan are in the row of very insecure provinces and provinces Yazd, Qazvin, Gilan, Fars and East and West Azerbaijan are in very insecure level. The rest of the province is scattered in three intermediate levels.
The results show that the correlation between variables is positive and direct and the development map of the country's provinces is very consistent with the crime rate map and this correlation between the studied variables is between the level of security, respectively. And the level of economic-industrial development and public and infrastructure services with values of 0.655 and 0.588, which shows the importance of these two sectors in improving the health and safety of society.
Conclusion
The results of examining the relationship between security and development indicators show that the highest correlation is in the sector of industrial-economic indicators. This factor directly affects the lifestyle of the residents of the areas and the income of the people. An increase in income increases people's income and, consequently, improves a person's living conditions and avoids illegal actions; Because according to statistics, the most activity of crime groups is in deprived areas and marginal arises from the financial needs of residents and the lack of achieving the desired level of economic development.
In the second stage, there are indicators of public and infrastructure services, and the health, and cultural educational sectors are in the next ranks, respectively. One of the most important factors in the high correlation between the development of public and infrastructure services and security in the regions is the physical and infrastructural conditions. Physical and infrastructural development has caused prosperity in the region and with the increase of the added value of the place and the prosperity of biological, economic and social activities in the place has increased and this issue has reduced the activity of crime groups and increased security in the place leads. Considering that the health and cultural dimensions are directly related to human resources and society, and the increase or decrease of security is done by human beings, it can be said that if these factors are developed and consequently the development of human resources and increasing their quality of service and facilities can be expected to reduce crime and increase security in these areas. The results show a relative matching of the development and security rank of the provinces; In a way, more developed provinces with high rankings in the security sector have a more favorable situation and similar to the development situation.
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