تأثیر خلاقیت اقتصادی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی در استان‌های ایران با رهیافت رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
جلیل خداپرست شیرازی
1
(استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدة اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران)
محمد سعید ذبیحی دان
2
(استادیار و عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران)
کلید واژه: خلاقیت, تحلیل فضایی, تولید ناخالص داخلی, رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه شهرها و مناطق خلاق باعث رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشور می‌شوند. به همین دلیل است که مفهوم خلاقیت در مطالعات شهری و منطقه‌ای جایگاه ویژه‌ای به دست آورده است. ازاین‌رو شناخت و تقویت معیارها و شاخص‌های خلاقیت منطقه بسیار حائز اهمیت می‌باشد. نظریه‌ها و مطالعات مختلفی بیان‌کننده تأثیر خلاقیت بر رشد اقتصادی شهرها و مناطق می‌باشند. مطالعاتی که نشان می‌دهند بهبود شاخص خلاقیت و افزایش خلاقیت شهر و منطقه تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی شهر و منطقه خواهد داشت. بنابراین هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر بررسی تحلیل فضایی تأثیر خلاقیت اقتصادی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی استان‌های ایران می‌باشد. برای رسیدن به این هدف، از تکنیک اقتصادسنجی فضایی و از روش رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی استفاده شده است. در مطالعه حاضر از داده‌های مقطعی سال 1393 برای 31 استان کشور استفاده شده است. در ابتدا با استفاده از روش تاپسیس، به محاسبه شاخص خلاقیت در هر استان پرداخته شده است. سپس با استفاده از نتایج بدست آمده استان‌های ایران به لحاظ خلاقیت رتبه‌بندی شده است. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده استان‌های خراسان شمالی، زنجان، سمنان، قزوین و چهارمحال و بختیاری به ترتیب دارای کمترین خلاقیت و استان‌های خوزستان، خراسان رضوی، تهران، خراسان جنوبی و مازندران به ترتیب دارای بیشترین خلاقیت بوده‌اند. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل با استفاده از روش رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی نشان می‌دهد هرچقدر خلاقیت در استان‌ها افزایش پیدا کند، تولید ناخالص داخلی استان‌ها نیز افزایش پیدا می‌کند. بنابراین یکی از عواملی که باعث رشد و توسعه اقتصادی منطقه و کشور می‌گردد، بهبود شاخص‌ها و معیارهای خلاقیت منطقه و در نتیجه افزایش خلاقیت استان‌ها می‌باشد.
Nowadays, the cities and the creative regions lead to economic growth and development of the country. That is why the concept of creativity has gained a special place in urban and regional studies. Therefore, it is important to recognize and reinforce the region's creativity criteria and indicators. different theories and studies express the effect of creativity on the economic growth of cities and regions. Different theories and studies illustrate the impact of creativity on the economic growth of cities and regions. Studies show that improving the creativity index and increasing the creativity of the city and the region will have a positive and significant impact on the economic growth of the city and the region. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the spatial analysis of the impact of economic creativity on the gross domestic product of the provinces of iran. To achieve this goal, we used the spatial econometric technique and the geographically weighted regression method. In this study, we used cross - sectional data in 2014 for 31 provinces of Iran. Initially, the TOPSIS method is used to calculate the creativity index in each province. Then, using the results, the Iranian provinces are ranked based on creativity. According to the results, North Khorasan, Zanjan, Semnan, Qazvin and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces had the least creativity respectively and Khuzestan, Razavi Khorasan, Tehran, South Khorasan and Mazandaran provinces, had the most creativity respectively.
The results of the model estimation using geographically weighted regression method show that the more the creativity in the provinces increases, the country’s GDP increases as well. Therefore, one of the factors contributing to the economic growth and development of the region and country is the improvement of regional creativity indicators and criteria, and consequently the increase of provincial creativity.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Nowadays, the concept of creativity has gained special place in urban and regional studies and new concepts such as creative class, creative industries and creative environment, the city and creative areas have added to the literature on urban and regional economics. The creativity of the region is the concept that, the different dimensions of creativity encompasses economic and social creativity, culture, to creativity and technological innovation. Thus creativity of the area refers to all other concepts of creativity, such as creative class, creative industries, creative environment and creative region. Undoubtedly, the creative environment is an environment that nurtures and attracts talent; an area that has generated research and is able to add new sections to the economic, cultural, social and added to the management of the region and create new opportunities for these regions.
The main issue of this research is to investigate the position of Iranian provinces in terms of creativity. In order to be able to provide a relatively comprehensive view of the situation in Iran's provinces in terms of the characteristics of creative regions. In this study, for the first time, it is attempted to provide a spatial econometric model, to examine whether the economic creativity of a region (province) can affect the GDP of that province and ultimately the economic growth and development of the country?
Methodology
This study is based on applied purpose and in terms of the causal method. In this study, the statistics published in the Statistics Center of Iran have been used. After collecting statistics related to each province (31 provinces of Iran for the year 2014), the creativity index is calculated in each province. Creativity index variables have been selected using the indicators used in previous articles (Delangizan et al. 2018: 23). To calculate the creativity index in each province, the Topsis method, which is one of the best ranking methods, has been used. Then, using GWR and GIS to examine the impact of economic creativity on the GDP of each province.
The model used in this study is as follows:
Model variables are:
GDP: Gross Domestic Product in each province.
CCI: Creative index in each province.
L: Labor, is equal to the number of employees in each province.
K: Capital
Results and discussion
At the beginning of, Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) method was used to investigate the effect of economic creativity on GDP. The results show that, the variable of economic creativity at the 95% confidence level has a significant and positive effect on the GDP of the province. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been used to illustrate regional differences and the differentiating effects of creativity for each province. The results of the pattern estimation using the GWR method show that, the range [3430, 14653-] for the Creativity Index (CCI) variable. Considering that the median is a positive number, creativity has a positive impact on the GDP.
Conclusion
In the study of economic creativity so far, there is a little attention to the relationship between creativity with gross domestic product as well as the role of space. Whereas today, creativity is the main and important factor in economic growth of the region. The results from the calculation of the creativity index in each province indicate that the provinces of North Khorasan, Zanjan, Semnan, Qazvin and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari had the least creativity respectively, and the provinces of Khuzestan, Razavi Khorasan, Tehran, South Khorasan and Mazandaran had the highest creativity respectively. In accordance with the results are achieved, from the Topsis method in this study it can be affirmed that provinces in Iran are not in an appropriate position in terms of cultural economy. Even the provinces of Khuzestan, Razavi Khorasan and Tehran, respectively, are located in the first and third ranks, they are far from ideal.
The model estimation results show the superiority of the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to the ordinary least squares method. Based on the results from the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, creativity has a positive effect on GDP. So in accordance with the results obtained by estimating the model, if creativity increases in the provinces, the Gross Domestic Product of the provinces is also growing.
Therefore, one of the factors which, lead to economic growth and development of the region and the country the improvement of the indicators and criteria of the region's creativity and thus increasing the creativity of the province. Based on the results, the most effective impact of creativity on the Gross Domestic Product is related to the provinces of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan and Gilan.
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