آمایش اقتصادی نواحی مرزی با تاکید برامنیت پایدار( مطالعه موردی: شهرستان سراوان)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
علی اصغر عبدالهی
1
(دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران.)
ماریه دلیری
2
(دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران.)
کلید واژه: "آمایش اقتصادی", "مناطق مرزی", " شهرستان سراوان", " امنیت پایدار", "smartpls",
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه جدیدترین مطالعات مربوط به برنامه‌ریزی آمایشی مناطق مرزی و روابط اقتصادی دوسویه فرامرزی که از اهمیت بالایی برخوردارند می‌باشد، زیرا؛ این مناطق با طبیعتی منزوی و توسعه‌نیافته همراه با مشکلات متعددی من جمله قاچاق، بیکاری و ناامنی هستند، در این شرایط توجه به مسائل اقتصادی و امنیتی در آمایش این نواحی باعث توسعه اقتصادی و اجتماعی همچنین افزایش امنیت و ثبات امنیتی در منطقه می‌گردد. هدف از انجام این تحقیق، آمایش اقتصادی با استفاده از پتانسیل‌ها و توان‌های محیطی شهرستان مرزی سراوان جهت رسیدن به امنیت پایدار در منطقه می‌باشد. روش‌شناسی پژوهش حاضر توصیفی_ تحلیلی می‌باشد، دراین مسیر از روش گردآوری اطلاعات مبتنی بر پرسشنامه(شهروندان و کارشناسان)، وبه علت غیر نرمال بودن داده‌ها ازآزمون‌های آماری ناپارامتریک اسپیرمن و رگرسیون چند متغیره(تحلیل مسیر) و همچنین مدل معادلات ساختاری (smart pls) به تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از آزمون اسپیرمن با توجه به مقدار (0.000) P –value ومقدار همبستگی (0.505) ارتباط بین آمایش اقتصادی و امنیت پایدار نشان می‌دهد این دو متغیر رابطه معنادار و همبستگی زیادی باهم دارند. نتایج حاصل از آزمون رگرسیون چند متغیره برای پیش‌بینی عوامل موثر بر توسعه پایدار شاخص‌های اقتصادی را نشان می‌دهد که دو متغیر پتانسیل درون‌زا و استراتژی برون‌زا 95 درصد توسعه پایدار شاخص‌های اقتصادی را پیش‌بینی می‌کند. نتایج حاصل از مدل معادلات ساختاری smart pls)) باتوجه به ضرایب معناداری z(مقادیر t-value) از 1.96 بیشتر هستند، نشان می‌دهد پیاده‌سازی برنامه‌های آمایش اقتصادی به افزایش توان اقتصادی و امنیت در منطقه منجر خواهد شد، این مهم در صورتی عملی می‌شودکه برنامه‌ریزی‌های توسعه اقتصادی بر اساس پتانسیل‌ها و توان‌های منطقه صورت گیرد. در این راستا پیشنهاد می‌شود پرورش استعداد‌ها تقویت شود همچنین زیرساخت‌های تولیدی تقویت و مزایای صادرات بهبود یابد همچنین اقدامات امنیتی و نظارتی تقویت شود، در این صورت منطقه مورد مطالعه بستر مناسب برای توسعه و ثبات امنیت خواهد بود
Nowadays, the latest researches on spatial planning of border regions and bilateral cross-border economic relations have high importance, because these areas with an isolated and underdeveloped nature are related to several issues such as smuggling, unemployment and insecurity, in this condition, considering economic and security issues in planning these areas results in economic and social development as well as increase security and security stability in the area. The aim of this research was economic planning utilizing environmental potentials and potentials of Saravan border city to achieve sustainable security in the area. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical; hence, the data were analyzed by questionnaire-based data collection method (citizens and experts), and due to the abnormality of data, spearman's nonparametric statistical tests and multivariate regression (path analysis) as well as structural equation modeling (smart pls) were analyzed. The results of Spearman test due to P-value (0.000) and correlation value (0.505) indicate that these two variables have a significant relationship and a great correlation. The results of multivariate regression test to forecast the elements influencing sustainable development reveal economic indicators that two variables of endogenous potential and exogenous strategy predict 95% of sustainable development of economic indicators. The results of smart pls structural equation modeling (considering the significant coefficients of z(t-value) are greater than 1.96 show that the implementation of economic planning programs will lead to increased economic potential and security in the area, it will be done if economic development planning is done due to the potentials and potentials of region. In this regard, it is suggested to strengthen talent development as well as strengthen production infrastructure and improve export benefits, as well as strengthen security and regulatory measures, in which case the research area will be a profitable platform for development and stability of security. Extended Abstract Introduction Today, in order to succeed in any issue, all countries make many plans and policies to achieve their desired goals. One of these plans is land preparation, which is a turning point in the development of some countries and has caused their extraordinary transformation. Because experimental planning has a spatial and all-round and comprehensive view that does not leave any blind spots, provided that it is implemented. Thus, considering the importance of the development of countries, especially developing countries that have long borders, and considering the concept and function of borders today and the significant role that these regions can play in the economy of these countries; It requires study and research in this area. Maintaining and expanding the security of borders and border areas has been a constant concern of countries that have long common borders with their neighbors. In a special historical and civilizational connection, Iran has been a constant passage of wars, migrations, trade and human exchanges, and now after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the birth of independent republics, Iran has land borders with seven countries and sea borders with eight countries. Therefore, it is obvious that despite the presence of neighboring countries, most of which are weak and unstable, it is necessary to pay close attention to the issue of land acquisition and development in the border areas, keeping security aspects in mind. Methodology In the current research, to collect data from the library-document method (books, articles, similar researches and referring to related organizations and organizations to use information) and field (interviews, observing the current situation and checking the economic situation of the region) in This relationship of (questionnaire tool of citizens and officials) is within the scope of the study. Our target community at the level of Saravan analysis is the analysis unit of citizens and experts in related fields. Sampling method, because the structure of the questionnaire is mostly based on the border of the region and snowball sampling was chosen to get correct information. The current research has two questionnaires of citizens and experts, the information collected by them is converted into data through spss software and using Spearman's tests, multivariate regression analysis and structural equation model (due to the non-normality of the data). Smart pls software was used for partial least squares analysis. Results and Discussion The results of the Spearman test for the relationship between the economic performance and the sustainable security of Saravan city show that these two indicators have a significant and reciprocal relationship with each other and also have a high level of correlation, so the increase and improvement in each of these two causes an increase in the level of the other. will lead the region. The results of the multivariate regression test (path analysis) to predict the factors affecting the sustainable development of economic indicators show that the two components of endogenous potentials and exogenous development predict 95% of the stability of economic indicators in the region, and this result is based on the value of the coefficient r (0.95) has been obtained. The results of pls smart model for predicting the effects of economic development on the study area based on the coefficients of the path and the effect value which provides the predicted value of the indicators studied in the research show that the effects are significant and extremely good will lead to sustainable security and economic development. It works and if the economic measures are carried out using the potentials of the region and the executive officials succeed in doing this, the economic measures will have good effects on the development and security of the region. Conclusion Saravan is one of the sensitive and strategic border regions of southeastern Iran. This border region is at a low level in terms of economy and security and is facing many problems, these problems are caused by backwardness, lack of development and lack of security. The existence of these issues is due to the lack of proper economic planning, the lack of adopting appropriate policies in line with the potential of the region, the lack of use of native people in executive programs and policies, the lack of competent and tactful people in the organizations and offices of this region, and the distance from the center of economic policies. Industry, lack of private and government investments, lack of economic and welfare infrastructure, geographical isolation, and the location of this region in the deprived and underdeveloped province of Sistan and Baluchistan are the results of the chaos of this city. Also, the influx of foreign nationals and illegal traffic, and due to the lack of employment and unemployment, most border residents whose livelihoods depend on the border turn to smuggling goods, fuel and people, which causes insecurity in Saravan city. While it is possible to use the agricultural potential of the region, the existence of huge groves, to create packaging industries and export date products, and this will create employment. But not only the proper organization and policy have not been done in this regard, but all date products of this region are exported to neighboring countries either under the name of other brands or in bulk at a low price. The lack of economic organization of the border and the lack of attention to the border interests of the region, as well as the lack of proper supervision and organization of the border markets of the city, have led to the lack of full use of the benefits of the border. Saravan city has a good border location and has the longest border with Pakistan. The use of these potentials requires attention and proper economic planning, but these correct plans and policies that lead to development and security can only be implemented in the shadow of economic studies. As mentioned earlier, the development of border areas has a significant impact on the development and national security, for this reason, the economic analysis of border areas should be carried out, and the purpose of this research is to increase the economic power of Saravan city by using the potentials and capabilities of this area in order to achieve It is security.
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