تبیین وضعیت نواحی شهری از منظر برخورداری از شاخص های تاب آوری شهری در برابر زلزله(مطالعه موردی:ناحیه 7 منطقه 1)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهریمحمود کجوری گشنیانی 1 , سیمین ارمغان 2 * , بهرام آزاد بخت 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،واحد یادگار امام خمینی(ره)،تهران،ایران
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شهرری
3 - استادیار دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد یادگار امام
کلید واژه: آسیب پذیری , تاب آوری, مدیریت بحران, زلزله, ناحیه 7 منطقه 1 تهران.,
چکیده مقاله :
استان تهران با ۱۵ زلزله مخرب تاریخ خود، در میان استان‌های کشور در مکان ششم قرار دارد. این استان به دلیل موقعیت جغرافیایی خود که بر روی گسل‌های زلزله واقع شده، به صورت مداوم با چالش‌های زیادی روبرو است. شهر تهران، به ویژه منطقه یک، از مشکلاتی نظیر ساخت و ساز بلندمرتبه، تراکم جمعیت و ترافیک سنگین رنج می‌برد. در این راستا، رعایت اصول مرتبط با تاب‌آوری شهری حیاتی است، زیرا عدم توجه به این موضوع می‌تواند منجر به خسارات غیرقابل جبرانی در صورت بروز زمین‌لرزه شود. باتوجه به مسائل مطرح شده، هدف از پژوهش حاضر تبیین وضعیت نواحی شهری از منظر برخورداری از شاخص‌های تاب‌آوری شهری در برابر زلزله در ناحیه 7 منطقه 1 است. این پژوهش با توجه به هدف از نوع کاربردی و در زمینه نحوه گردآوری داده‌ها از نوع پیمایشی و در رابطه با ماهیت داده‌ها از نوع پژوهش‌های کمی است. ابزار اصلی گردآوری داده‌های میدانی پژوهش، پرسشنامه و اطلاعات میدانی می‌باشد. جامعه آماری را کلیه کارشناسان و متخصصان حوزه مدیریت بحران و برنامه‌ریزی شهری تشکیل می‌دهند که حجم نمونه آن برمبنای فرمول کوکران تعداد 40 نفر تخمین‌زده شد و در راستای سنجش وضعیت نواحی شهری از منظر برخورداری از شاخص‌های تاب‌آوری از مدل تاکسونومی عددی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد نتایج نشان داد عوامل بسیار آسیب‌پذیر در ناحیه 7 شامل تراکم بالای ساختمان‌ها، خطوط لوله گاز، ترافیک و کمبود فضاهای سبز می‌باشد و عوامل نسبتا آسیب‌پذیر شامل نبود مکان مناسب برای جایگاه‌های سوخت و معابر بحران است.
The geographical classification of Iran based on historical information indicates that Tehran Province ranks sixth in the country, having experienced fifteen destructive earthquakes throughout its history. Additionally, Tehran is one of the cities situated along a seismic fault line. District 1 of Tehran faces serious challenges related to high-rise construction, population density, and heavy traffic due to its proximity to the North Tehran Fault. Due to non-compliance with construction regulations, the consequences of an earthquake could extend beyond local impacts to a national scale. Considering these issues, the aim of this research is to elucidate the status of urban areas in terms of their resilience indicators against earthquakes in District 7 of Region 1. This study is applied in nature and employs a survey method for data collection, utilizing quantitative research techniques. The primary tool for gathering field data is a questionnaire, alongside field information. The statistical population comprises experts and specialists in crisis management and urban planning, with a sample size estimated at 40 individuals based on Cochran's formula. To assess the status of urban areas concerning their resilience indicators, a numerical taxonomy model was employed. The results revealed that highly vulnerable factors in District 7 include high building density, gas pipeline networks, traffic congestion, and a lack of green spaces. Relatively vulnerable factors include the absence of suitable locations for fuel stations and emergency access routes.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Considering that over 60% of the country's population is urbanized and that cities are not in optimal condition regarding building materials and structures, urban planning to mitigate earthquake-related damages is essential. Tehran, as one of the cities located on an earthquake fault line, faces challenges such as population growth and high density, which negatively impact adherence to urban planning principles. Resilience, as a crucial concept in disaster management, defines the ability to anticipate risks and return to a pre-disaster state. Research indicates that Tehran would suffer serious damages in the event of a moderate earthquake. Various factors, such as population concentration, building density, and non-compliance with construction principles, could lead to significant financial and human losses during an earthquake. Most areas of Tehran, including newer districts, are in a critical state due to challenges like narrow streets and heavy traffic. The link between resilience, urban planning, and vulnerability reduction is of great importance, as the goal is to enhance communities' ability to face risks. Urban planning, based on scientific analysis, provides solutions to strengthen resilience and improve living conditions in various regions.
Methodology
The present study is classified as applied (practical) and developmental research based on its objectives, and as descriptive-analytical research based on its nature and methodology. In terms of the study method, it is categorized as survey research. The statistical population for this study consists of all experts and specialists in the fields of geography, urban planning, urban management, crisis management, and regional planning. The sample size has been determined to be 30 individuals based on calculations; however, to enhance the reliability of the findings, the sample size has been increased to 40 individuals. Additionally, a snowball sampling method was employed for sampling. In this research, descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage of frequency, mean, etc. , have been utilized.
Results and discussion
In analyzing the indicators of the most significant vulnerabilities in District 7 of Region 1 concerning earthquakes, the initial step involved categorizing the questions by type of damage. Subsequently, coding was executed using SPSS software, employing a Likert scale ranging from 1 to 5. The questionnaire data were then recorded in MATLAB software. In this context, a numerical taxonomy test was conducted to assess the impact of each indicator related to the most significant vulnerabilities in District 7 of Region 1, differentiated by neighborhood. After evaluating the vulnerability levels of each urban factor in District 7 of Region 1, categorized by type of damage, the findings revealed that the lack of fire stations (vulnerability score: 1.042), insufficient development of shelters (score: 0.846), excessive daily population movement within neighborhoods (score: 0.809), shortage of specialists in crisis management and planning (score: 0.786), lack of aerial equipment (score: 0.471), and the presence of critical pathways in District 7 (score: 0.466) were identified as the least impactful damaging factors for the entire region.
Conclusion
Based on statistical analyses and the numerical taxonomy model, the findings regarding vulnerability in District 7 of Region 1 are summarized as follows: Highly Vulnerable Factors: High building density, main gas pipelines, traffic issues, lack of green spaces, poor access to open areas, slope presence, accessibility to healthcare facilities, and weaknesses in urban planning. Among these, high building density, gas pipelines, traffic problems, and lack of green spaces are the most critical. Relatively Vulnerable Factors: These include the absence of designated fuel station locations, critical pathways, and insufficient aerial equipment. Less Vulnerable Factors: The lack of healthcare centers is identified as the least significant vulnerability. Non-Vulnerable Factors: The shortage of specialists, daily population movement, lack of shelter development, and insufficient fire stations are classified as non-damaging issues in District 7.
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