تبیین پیشران‌های کلیدی زیست‌پذیری شهرهای مرزی با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: شهر زابل)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

فاطمه کریمیان پور ¹ , رستم صابری فر ² , سیدمهدی موسی کاظمی ³

1 - پیام نور تهران
2 - هیات علمی
3 - هیئت علمی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/06/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/09/21 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/09/01

کلید واژه: توسعه پایدار, زابل, آینده‌پژوهی, زیست‌پذیری, شهرهای مرزی,

چکیده مقاله :

امروزه با افزایش روند جمعیت و شهرنشینی، مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی شهرها و به ویژه شهرهای مرزی به واسطه حساسیت‌های آن‌ها پیچیده‌تر شده است. در این راستا زیست‌پذیری به عنوان یکی از مباحث و تئوری‌های برنامه‌ریزی شهری در پی فراهم‌‌نمودن شرایط مطلوب‌تر برای زندگی شهروندان و دستیابی به توسعه پایدار شهری است. عوامل بسیاری در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی و زیست‌محیطی بر زیست‌پذیری شهرها تأثیرگذارند که این عوامل بر یکدیگر نیز تأثیرگذار می‌باشند. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل می‌باشد. لذا، پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ ماهیت و روش بر اساس روش‌های جدید علم آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. جهت گردآوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از پرسشنامه و تکنیک دلفی و مطالعات اسنادی و کتابخانه‌ای بهره‌گیری شده است. برای به کارگیری تکنیک دلفی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع‌، در دو مرحله پرسشنامه‌ها تهیه شده است، مرحله اول، شامل 50 پرسشنامه باز که در آن مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر در زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل در موضوعات محوری با در نظر گرفتن حوزه های مختلف و همه جانبه زیست‌پذیری در اختیار کارشناسان قرار داده شده است که به استخراج کلی عوامل مؤثر بر زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل انجامید. مرحله دوم، شامل 30 پرسشنامه برای تعیین عوامل اصلی تأثیر گذار بر زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل از طریق وزن دهی است که توسط کارشناسان تکمیل و در نهایت جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌های جمع-آوری شده از نرم افزار MicMac بهره‌گیری شده است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر آن است که از میان 33 عامل اصلی تأثیرگذار بر زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل، در مجموع 8 متغیر کلیدی در وضعیت زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل تأثیرگذارند، بدین صورت که این متغیرها بیشترین تأثیرگذاری و کمترین تأثیرپذیری را بر آینده زیست‌پذیری شهر زابل دارند وشامل عوامل " محرومیت زدایی، سرمایه گذاری، تمایل ساکنان به سکونت، دسترسی به زیرساخت ها، وضعیت مسکن و معابر، مبلمان شهری و کیفیت سیما و منظر، تعاملات اجتماعی، نهادهای مدنی و جمعی " می‌باشند. با توجه به ارتباط و تأثیرگذاری درونی این عوامل با یکدیگر، باید کیفیت هر کدام از این عوامل به ترتیب در قالب برنامه‌های میان‌مدت و بلندمدت، ارتقا یابند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The aim of this study is to identify the key factors affecting the viability of Zabol city. Therefore, the present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and method is based on new methods of futurology, research, analysis and exploration. In order to collect the required data and information, a questionnaire and Delphi technique and documentary studies and libraries have been used.To apply the Delphi technique and analyze the cross-effects, questionnaires have been prepared in two stages. Various and comprehensive aspects of viability have been provided to experts, which led to the general extraction of factors affecting the viability of Zabol city. The second phase includes 30 questionnaires to determine the main factors affecting the viability of Zabol city through weighting, which was completed by experts and finally used to analyze the collected data from MicMac software. The results show that among the 33 main factors affecting the survival of Zabol city, a total of 8 key variables affect the survival of Zabul city, so that these variables have the most impact and the least impact on the future of survival in Zabul city . It includes factors such as "deprivation, investment, residents' desire to live, access to infrastructure, housing and roads, urban furniture and quality of appearance, social interactions, civic and collective institutions." Due to the relationship and internal impact of these factors with each other, the quality of each of these factors should be improved. Extended Abstract Introduction The city of Zabul is located in one of the most critical biological areas of the country and the border location of this city has made its life and viability faces major challenges. In fact, numerous droughts, water crises and the drying up of the largest water source in Sistan region, have faced this vast plain with major bottlenecks and turned the largest urban area of this area (Zabul city) into an unbearable settlement. The occurrence of various diseases related to dust, low efficiency of energy consumption and agricultural production, etc., has turned Zabul into a real laboratory of social, economic and environmental damage. In this regard, the main issue of the present study is to identify the key drivers affecting the viability of Zabol city. With medium and long-term planning, the existing obstacles to improving the viability of Zabul city will be removed. Methodology The city of Zabol is located in the southeastern corner of Iran and located at 61 degrees and 29 minutes east longitude and 31 degrees and 1 minute north latitude. According to the 2016 census, this city had a population of about 135,000 and is ranked seventh among the cities of Iran in terms of population. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and method is based on new methods of futurology, research, analysis and exploration. Questionnaire and Delphi technique, documentary studies and libraries have been used to collect the required data and information. To use the Delphi technique and analyze the cross-effects, questionnaires have been prepared in two stages, the first stage includes 50 open questionnaires and the second stage includes 30 questionnaires to determine the main factors affecting the viability of Zabol city through weight. That has been completed by experts and finally used to analyze the collected data MicMac software.   Results and discussion Among the 33 main factors affecting the viability of Zabol city, a total of 8 key variables affect the viability of Zabol city and include factors such as "deprivation elimination, investment, residents' desire to live, access to infrastructure, housing and roads" "Urban furniture and the quality of appearance and landscape, social interactions, civic and collective institution. Conclusion Given the nature of these key drivers, any decision made by managers and urban planning policymakers could affect the future of border towns, and on the other hand, due to the interdependence of these factors, It is necessary to pay attention to this. Due to being in the 120-day wind corridor, the city of Zabul cannot have good living conditions, and if there is such an insistence on continuing the development and expansion of the city, fundamental changes must be made in the plans and implementation. According to studies, strategies based on the integration of indigenous knowledge and new technologies along with the dynamics and flexibility of the support and urban planning system are needed to increase cross-sectoral participation and public participation, including cellular automation of the program support system. Urban planning has shown its capabilities and efficiency with regard to current and future technologies and can address and implement the issue of infrastructure and basic land use in the city of Zabul according to global experiences.
Due to the relationship and internal impact of these factors with each other, the quality of each of these factors should be improved.  

منابع و مأخذ:

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