اولویت‌بندی توسعه پایدار زیرساخت‌های راهبردی با استفاده از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی: مطالعه موردی کشور ایران
محورهای موضوعی : منابع طبیعی و مخاطرات محیطی
بابک نبی زاده
1
(نیروهای مسلح جمهوری اسلامی ایران )
سامان سلیمانیان
2
()
کلید واژه: توسعه پایدار, تحلیل سلسله مراتبی, ایران,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: اهمیت حرکت جهانی بسوی توسعه پایدار در سال‌های گذشته افزایش یافته است و ضروری است که در هر کشور مفهوم توسعه تحت چهارچوبی که نیاز‌های حال و آینده آن ملت را فرآهم آورد، بازتعریف شود. از این رو، هدف این پژوهش این است که در یک حیطه مشخص و بر اساس یک الگویی کاربردی سه زیر زیرساخت راهبردی و حائز اهمیت شبکه سراسری توزیع برق، شبکه آب‌رسانی و شبکه توزیع سوخت‌های فسیلی را اولویت‌بندی کند. مواد و روش‌ها: این پژوهش با کاربرد روش جامع تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)، بر اساس تجربیات بدست آمده در طراحی، اجرا و بهره‌برداری زیرساخت‌های راهبردی و با نظرسنجی از ۱۲ نفر خبره، زیرساخت‌های مورد بررسی را به نسبت چهار معیار اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیط‌زیستی و فنی به همراه ۱۰ لایه زیرمعیار هزینه سرمایه‌گذاری و ساخت، هزینه نگهداری، اشتغال زایی، پذیرش و نرخ مشارکت عمومی، آلودگی آب، خاک و هوا، کیفیت نهایی، بازدهی فنی و آموزش نیروی متخصص اولویت‌بندی کرده است. نتایج و بحث: نتایج نشان داد که در بررسی ابعاد توسعه پایدار، معیار محیط زیستی با وزن 30/0 بیشترین اولویت را دارد و پس از آن نیز معیار فنی با وزن 24/0 می‌باشد. معیار‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی نیز به ترتیب با اوزان 224/0 و 223/0 در جایگاه‌های بعدی قرار گرفتند. همچنین شبکه توزیع سوخت با وزن 026/0 بالاترین اهمیت را در توسعه پایدار زیرساخت‌ها داشت. اولویت دوم را شبکه توزیع سراسری برق با وزن 0252/0 و سومین اولویت را نیز با وزن 251./. شبکه آب‌رسانی داشتند. در ادامه بررسی وزن جایگزین‌های اولویت‌بندی زیرساخت‌های استراتژیک هدف برپایه معیار‌های اصلی نشان داد که شبکه آب‌رسانی در معیار‌های اقتصادی و محیط زیستی به ترتیب با اوزان 27/0 و 34/0 بیشترین اولویت را داشته است. در معیار اجتماعی شبکه سراسری توزیع برق با وزن 26/0 دارای بالاترین اولویت بوده است و در معیار فنی نیز اولویت را شبکه سوخت با وزن 33/0 داشت. نتیجه‌گیری: ایران با وابستگی زیرساخت‌هایش به انرژی‌های فسیلی در گام نخست به برنامه‌ریزی برای توسعه پایدار در فرآیند‌های اکتشاف، استخراج، پالایش و شبکه حمل و نقل سوخت‌های فسیلی نیاز دارد. سپس شبکه برق کشور نیازمند تغییرات بنیادین در سیستم برق‌رسانی و همگرایی با تکنولوژی‌های پیشرفته می‌باشد. در گام سوم نیز با توجه به بحران آب، ایران نیازمند تزریق سرمایه و تکنولوژی‌های نوین به زیرساخت‌های خود است تا به راندمان بالاتری دست یابد.
Introduction: The importance of the global movement towards sustainable development has increased in the recent years, and it is necessary to redefine the concept of development in every country under a framework which responds to the current and future needs of that nation. Therefore, the aim of this research is to prioritize three strategic infrastructures of the national electricity distribution network, water supply network and fossil fuel distribution network within a specific practical framework. Materials and Methods: This research used the comprehensive multi-criteria decision-making method of the analytical hierarchy process which is based on the experiences gained in the design, implementation and operation of strategic infrastructures with a survey from 12 experts. Mentioned infrastructures have prioritized according to four economic, social, environmental and technical criteria along with 10 sub-criteria layers of investment and construction cost, maintenance cost, job creation, acceptance and public participation rate, water, soil and air pollution, final quality, technical efficiency and training of expert staff. Results and Discussion: The results showed that in examining the dimensions of sustainable development, the environmental criterion with a weight of 0.30 has the highest priority, followed by the technical criterion with a weight of 0.24. Social and economic criteria were ranked next with weights of 0.224 and 0.223 respectively. Also, the fuel distribution network with a weight of 0.026 had the highest importance in the sustainable development of infrastructure. The second priority was the nationwide electricity distribution network with a weight of 0.0252, and the third priority was the water supply network with a weight of 0.0251. Further, the weight of the alternatives for prioritizing the strategic target infrastructures based on the main criteria showed that the water supply network had the highest priority in economic and environmental criteria with weights of 0.27 and 0.34 respectively. In the social criterion, the nationwide electricity distribution network has the highest priority with a weight of 0.26, and in the technical criterion, the fuel network has the highest priority with a weight of 0.33. Conclusion: Iran with high dependency on fossil energy in its infrastructure demands planning for sustainable development in the processes of exploration, extraction, refining and transportation network of fossil fuels. Then the electricity network of the country requires fundamental changes in the electricity supply system and convergence with innovative technologies. In the third step, because of the water crisis, Iran needs to introduce novel technologies into its infrastructure to achieve higher efficiency.
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