Forecasting time and place of earthquakes using a Semi-Markov model (with case study in Tehran province)

Subject Areas : Mathematical Optimization

Ramin Sadeghian ¹

1 - Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Industrial Engineering Faculty, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2020-10-01 Accepted : 2020-10-01 Published : 2012-01-01

Keywords: forecasting, Semi-Markov model, Earthquake occurrence, Transition matrix,

Abstract :

The paper examines the application of semi-Markov models to the phenomenon of earthquakes in Tehran province. Generally, earthquakes are not independent of each other, and time and place of earthquakes are related to previous earthquakes; moreover, the time between earthquakes affects the pattern of their occurrence; thus, this occurrence can be likened to semi-Markov models. In our work, we divided the province of Tehran into six regions and grouped the earthquakes regarding their magnitude into three classes. Using a semi-Markov model, it proceeds to predict the likelihood of the time and place of occurrence of earthquakes in the province.