System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation to Analyze the Role of Solar Energy in Secure Access to Sustainability

Subject Areas : Simulation Based Optimization

Maryam Ebrahimi ¹ , Nazanin Pilevari ²

1 - University of Bayreuth, Germany
2 - Islamic azad university, West tehran branch

Received: 2021-03-01 Accepted : 2021-05-26 Published : 2021-03-01

Keywords: System Dynamics, Sustainability, energy Security, Policy Making, Solar energy industry,

Abstract :

A truly renewable energy source, solar energy is considered within the context of climate change by various countries among which China, USA, and Germany rely more on solar power. Since there are rare studies regarding how energy drives secure access to sustainability, this study explores the role of solar energy generation in economic, social, and environmental sustainability and energy security in Iran as the main purpose. Using a system dynamics computer simulation model, this paper defines factors affecting the system including four sub-models such as energy and three aspects of sustainability. Besides, energy security is defined as the availability of adequate energy supply to satisfy existing demand. After determining a causal loop diagram, dynamic models, specific trends, and validation and simulation of the system, separate policies are presented along with a combined policy for system improvement. The policies include enhancing foreign investment, increasing tariffs of non-renewable energies, and decreasing energy intensity. This study further reviews relevant policies set forth in the USA, Germany, and China. According to the results, improvement policies are coming to an end. The main contributions are the insights into the sector to support policy-makers and finally, proposing policies for the system improvement.

References:

[1] Gu, C., Ye, X., Cao, Q., Guan, W., Peng, C., Wu, Y., Zhai, W. (2020)
"System dynamics modelling of urbanization under energy constraints in
China,” Nature, 9956. Retrieved on 27th February 2021 from
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-66125-3.

[2] Arroyo M., F. R., & Miguel, L.J. (2020) "The role of renewable energies
for the sustainable energy governance and environmental policies for the
mitigation of climate change in Ecuador,” Energies,13(3883), 1-18.

[3] Atabi, F. (2004) "Renewable energy in Iran: Challenges and
opportunities for sustainable development,” International Journal of
Environmental Science & Technology, 1(1): 69-80.

[4] Sy, C., Ching, P.M., Juan, J.L.S., Bernardo, E., Miguel, A., Mayol A. P.,
Culaba, A., Ubando, A., Mutuc, J.E. (2021) "Systems dynamics
modeling of pandemic influenza for strategic policy development: a
simulation-based analysis of the COVID-19 case,” Process Integration
and Optimization for Sustainability. Retrieved on 27th February 2021
from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41660-021-00156-9.

[5] Sokame, B.M., Tonnang, H.E.Z., Subramanian, S., Bruce, A.Y., Dubois,
T., Ekesi, S., Calatayud, P.A. (2021) "A system dynamics model for pests
and natural enemies interactions,” Nature, 11 (1401). Retrieved on 27th
February 2021 from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-
79553-y

[6] Park S., B.-J. Kim and S.-Y. Jung. (2014) "Simulation methods of a
system dynamics model for efficient operations and planning of capacity
expansion of activated-sludge wastewater treatment plants,” Procedia
Engineering, 70, 1289 – 1295.

[7] Zaim S., N. Bayyurt, M. Tarim, H. Zaim, Y. Guc. (2013) " System
dynamics modeling of a knowledge management process: A case study
in Turkish Airlines,” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 99, 545
– 552.
[8] Zhang, H., Calvo-Amodio, J., Haapala, K. R. (2013) "A conceptual
model for assisting sustainable manufacturing through system
dynamics,” Journal of Manufacturing Systems, 32, 543– 549.
[9] Gravelsins, A., Bazbauers, G., Blumberga, A., Blumberga, D., Bolwig,
S., Klitkou, A., Lund, P.D. (2018) "Modelling energy production
flexibility: system dynamics approach,” Energy Procedia, 147, 503-509.
[10]Rusiawan, W., Tjiptoherijanto, P., Suganda, E., Darmajanti, L. (2015)
"System dynamics modeling for urban economic growth and CO2 emission: a case study of Jakarta Indonesia,” Procedia Environmental
Sciences, 28, 330 – 340.
[11]Morecroft, J. D.W. (1988) "System dynamics and micro worlds for
policymakers,” European Journal of Operational Research,35, 301-320.
[12]Lane, D. C. (2000) "Should system dynamics be described as a hard or
deterministic systems approach,” Systems Research and Behavioral
Science System, 17, 3-22.
[13]Lyneis, J. M. (2009) "Business policy and strategy, system dynamics
applications to,” in: Meyers, R. A. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Complexity
and Systems Science. Springer, pp. 665-688.
[14]Torres, J.P., Kunc, M., Frances, O. (2017) "Supporting strategy using
system dynamics,” European Journal of Operational Research, 260 (3),
1081-1094.
[15]Feng, Y.Y., Chen, S.Q., Zhang, L.X. (2013) "System dynamics modeling
for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of
Beijing, China,” Ecological Modelling, 252, 44– 52.
[16]Laimon, M., Mai, T., Goh, S., and Yusaf, T. (2020) "Energy sector
development: System dynamics analysis,” Applied Sciences, 10(134), 1-
19.
[17]Mutingi, M., Mbohwa, C., Kommula, V.P. (2017) "System dynamics
approaches to energy policy modelling and simulation,” Energy
Procedia, 141,532-539.
[18]Brent, A.C., Mokheseng, M.B., Amigun, B., Tazvinga, H., and Musango,
J.K. (2011) "Systems dynamics modelling to assess the sustainability of
renewable energy technologies in developing countries,” WIT
Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 143, 13-24.
[19]Naill, R.F. (1992) "A system dynamics model for national energy policy
planning,” System Dynamics Review, 8(1), 1 – 19.
[20]Hidayatno, A., Dhamayanti, R., Rahmawan, A. (2019) " Model
conceptualization for policy analysis in renewable energy development
in Indonesia by using system dynamics,” International Journal of Smart
Grid and Clean Energy, 8(1), 54-58.
[21]Rajabi, A., and Moosavihaghighi, M. (2014) "The effects of energy
consumption on environmental pollutants and social costs in Iran using
system dynamics approach,” Retrieved on 12th March 2019 from
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2014/proceed/papers/P11
68.pdf.
[22]Al-Sarihi, A., Contestabile, M., Cherni, J.A. (2015) "Renewable energy
policy evaluation using a system dynamics approach: the case of Oman,”
The Conference Proceedings of The 33rd International Conference of the
System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Retrieved
on 12th March 2019 from http://www.systemdynamics.org/
conferences/2015/papers/P1003.pdf
[23]Robalino-L ́ opez, A., Mena-Nieto, A., Garc ́ ıa-Ramos, J.E. (2014)
"System dynamics modeling for renewable energy and CO2 emissions:
A case study of Ecuador. Energy for Sustainable Development,”
Retrieved on 12th March 2019 from http://rabida.uhu.es/dspace/
bitstream/handle/10272/7743/System_dynamics_modeling.pdf?sequenc
e=2.
[24]Prambudia, Y., and Nakano, M. (2010) "Scenario analysis of Indonesia’s
energy security by using a system-dynamics approach,” Retrieved on
12th March 2019 from http://waset.org/publications/10822/scenario-
analysis-of-indonesia-s-energy-security-by-using-a-system-dynamics-
approach
[25]RicardoSaavedra M. M., Horade O. Fontes, C., GaudêncioM. Freires, F.
(2018) "Sustainable and renewable energy supply chain: A system
dynamics overview,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,
82(1), 247-259.
[26]Rogers, J., and Wisland, L. (2014) "Solar power on the rise, the
technologies and policies behind a booming energy sector,” Retrieved on
14th March 2019 from http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/
files/attach/2014/08/Solar-Power-on-the-Rise.pdf.
[27]REN21 (2009) "Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of
renewable energy, policies in China,” Retrieved on 14th March 2019
from http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/technical-
articles/generation/general-renewable-
energy/ren21/Recommendations_for_RE_Policies_in_China.pdf.
[28]Runci, P. J. (2005) "Renewable energy policy in Germany: an overview
and assessment,” Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Technical
Report PNWD-3526, Joint Global Change Research Institute. Retrieved
on 14th March 2019 from http://www.globalchange.umd.
edu/data/publications/PNWD-3526.pdf.
[29]Albin, S. (1997). "Building a system dynamics model Part 1:
Conceptualization”. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved on
9th April 2020 from https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-
management/15-988-system-dynamics-self-study-fall-1998-spring-
1999/readings/building.pdf.
[30]Forrester, J. W., Senge, P. M. (1979) "Tests for building confidence in
system dynamic models” Retrieved on 10th May 2019 from
http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/Roadmaps/RM10/D-2926-7.pdf