مدل‌سازی رفتار روستائیان در مواجهه ادارک ریسک خشکسالی دریاچه ارومیه (مطالعه موردی: سکونتگاه‌های روستایی شهرستان بناب)
محورهای موضوعی :
تحلیل ریسک زیست محیطی
علیرضا سلیمانی
1
,
مجید پریشان
2
,
علی مجنونی توتاخانه
3
1 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران.
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران.
3 - دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی و مدرس گروه مهندسی معماری دانشگاه بناب، بناب، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
تاریخ دریافت : 1397/02/16
تاریخ پذیرش : 1397/08/15
تاریخ انتشار : 1400/07/01
کلید واژه:
رفتار تجربی,
جوامع روستائیان,
دریاچه ارومیه,
خشکسالی,
ادراک ریسک,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف:درک خطر منجر به تنظیم رفتارهای عملی جهت مقابله با آن می شود. هدف این پژوهش تحلیل رفتارهای تجربی روستائیان شهرستان بناب به‌منظور ادراک ریسک خشکسالی دریاچه ارومیه است. برای این منظور تلفیقی از رویکردهای فردی و اجتماعی بکار گرفته شد.
روش بررسی: پژوهش حاضر از نوع مطالعات توصیفی-تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش ساکنین بالای 15 سال در 29 روستای شهرستان بناب است که برابر 23653 نفر هستند. با استفاده از روش کوکران و به روش تصادفی ساده، 380 نفر به عنوان حجم نمونه انتخاب گردید. ابزار مورد استفاده در این پژوهش، پرسشنامه است. تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSSو آزمون های رگرسیون چندمتغیره و تحلیل مسیر صورت گرفت.
یافته‌ها: نتایج تحلیل مسیر بر روی متغیر وابسته نشان داد که محصول مقاوم به خشکسالی، دانش و مهارت، درآمد، سن، طول مدت اقامت، شرکت در برنامه های آموزشی و نوسازی کانال‌های آبیاری بر رفتارهای عملی کاهش ریسک خشکسالی اثر مستقیم دارند. همچنین نتایج تحلیل مسیر بر روی متغیر وابسته قصد انجام رفتارهای کاهش ریسک در آینده، نشان داد متغیرهای کشت محصولات مقاوم به خشکسالی، خودکارآمدی، سن، سطح تحصیلات، اعتماد، تجربه قبلی و مسئولیت‌پذیری دارای اثر مثبت و متغیرهای تعصبات خوش‌بینانه، درآمد و سن بر متغیر ادراک ریسک اثر منفی داشته‌اند. هم چنین اثرات غیرمستقیم از طریق دو متغیر باورها و درآمد بر روی روی متغیر قصد و نیت کاهش خطر ریسک خشکسالی اثرگذار هستند..
بحث و نتیجه گیری: بنا بر نتایج یافته های پژوهش، می توان گفت که علیرغم درک خطر خشکسالی توسط روستائیان، هنوز این درک به صورت عملی رفتار روستائیان را تغییر نداده است.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and Objective: Perception of risk leads to the regulation of practical behaviors to deal with it. The purpose of this study is to analyze the experimental behaviors of villagers in Bonab city to understand the risk of drought in Lake Urmia. For this purpose, a combination of individual and social approaches was used.
Material and Methodology: The present study is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of the study is residents over 15 years old in 29 villages of Bonab city, which is equal to 23653 people. Using Cochran's method and simple random method, 380 people were selected as the sample size. The tool used in this research is a questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS software and multivariate regression tests, and path analysis.
Findings: The results of path analysis on the dependent variable showed that drought-tolerant crop, knowledge and skills, income, age, length of stay, participation in training programs, and modernization of irrigation canals have a direct effect on practical behaviors to reduce drought risk. Also, the results of path analysis on the dependent variable of intention to perform risk reduction behaviors in the future, showed that the variables of cultivation of drought-tolerant crops, self-efficacy, age, level of education, trust, previous experience, and responsibility have a positive effect and optimistic bias variables, income, and age. The risk perception variable had a negative effect. Indirect effects through the two variables of believes and income also affect the variable of intention to reduce the risk of drought.
Discussion and Conclusion: According to the research results, the perception of drought risk by the villagers, this understanding has not yet changed the behavior of the rural community in practice.
منابع و مأخذ:
Afrakhteh, Hasan; Azizpour, Farhad; Tahmasebi, Asghar; Soleimani, Adel, "Rural Adaptation Strategies against Drought Risks (Case Study: Poshtang Village, Ravansar County)", Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, 2015, 2 (3), 354-341. (In Persian)
Khosravi, Qasem, "Vocabulary, Decoder of Environmental Risk Management". Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, 1396, 4 (4), 347-366. (In Persian)
Khorshid Doost, Mohammad Ali; Rasooli, Ali Akbar; Zanganeh, Saeed, "Modeling and Predicting Rainfall and Drought Trends in Northwestern Iran to Reduce Risks", Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, 2016, 3 (3), 252-233. (In Persian)
Rokneddin Eftekhari, Abdolreza, "The role of drought risk management in reducing socio-economic vulnerability of rural farmers (from the perspective of officials and experts) Case study: Soldoz village, West Azerbaijan", Rural Research Quarterly, 2014, 2 (1), p. 22-1. (In Persian)
Rokneddin Eftekhari, Abdul Reza; Mousavi, Seyed Mohammad; Poor Taheri, Mehdi; Farajzadeh Asl, Manouchehr, "Analysis of the role of subsistence diversity in the resilience of rural households in drought conditions Case study: Areas exposed to drought in Isfahan province", Quarterly Journal of Rural Research, 2014, 5 (3), 662-639. (In Persian)
Asgarizadeh, Zahra; Rafieian, Mojtaba; Dadashpour, Hashem, "Study and Analysis of the Experimental Model of Earthquake Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tehran". Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 2016, 4 (15), 39-60. (In Persian)
Majnouni Toutakhane, Ali; Heidari Sarban, Vakil; Mofareh Bonab, Mojtaba, "Study of the effects of drought on Lake Urmia on changes in the resilience of rural settlements." Quarterly Journal of Rural Research and Planning, 1396, 4 (20), 89-67. (In Persian)
Heidari Sarban, Vakil; Majnouni Toutakhane, Ali, "The role of livelihood diversity in the resilience of rural households around Lake Urmia against drought." Quarterly Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, 2016, 3 (4), 70-49. (In Persian)
Alberto, P. A. and A. C. Troutman, 2012, Applied behavior analysis for teachers, Pearson Higher Ed.
Chizari, M, 2013, “Assessment effective factor on kind of wheat farm management in grought situation for Varamin Province,” 3th conference of agricultural extension an education, Iran, 5(8), 107-118.
Goupee, A. J., et al, 2014, "Experimental comparison of three floating wind turbine concepts." Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 136(1), 15-25
Maracchi, G, 2000, Agricultural drought—a practical approach to definition, assessment and mitigation strategies. Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, Springer, pp. 63-75.
Martin, I. M., Bender; H., Raish, C., 2007, what motivates individuals to protect themselves from risks? The case of wildland fires. Risk Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 887-900.
McFarlane, B.L, 2005, Public perceptions of risk to forest biodiversity. Risk Analysis, 23(3), pp. 543-553.
Sjöberg, L., 1999, Riak Perception by the public and by Experts: A Dilemma in Risk Management. Research in Human Ecology.
Slovic, P., 1993, Perceived risk, trust, and democracy. Risk Analysis, 13(4), pp.675-682.
Slovic, P., 2000, the perception of risk. London: Earthscan.
Whitmarsh, L, 2008, "Are flood victims more concerned about climate change than other people? The role of direct experience in risk perception and behavioural response." Journal of Risk Research, 11(3), pp. 351-374.
Yan, J.-B., et al, 2015, "Experimental and analytical study on ultimate strength behavior of steel–concrete–steel sandwich composite beam structures." Materials and Structures, 48(5), pp. 1523-1544.
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Afrakhteh, Hasan; Azizpour, Farhad; Tahmasebi, Asghar; Soleimani, Adel, "Rural Adaptation Strategies against Drought Risks (Case Study: Poshtang Village, Ravansar County)", Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, 2015, 2 (3), 354-341. (In Persian)
Khosravi, Qasem, "Vocabulary, Decoder of Environmental Risk Management". Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, 1396, 4 (4), 347-366. (In Persian)
Khorshid Doost, Mohammad Ali; Rasooli, Ali Akbar; Zanganeh, Saeed, "Modeling and Predicting Rainfall and Drought Trends in Northwestern Iran to Reduce Risks", Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, 2016, 3 (3), 252-233. (In Persian)
Rokneddin Eftekhari, Abdolreza, "The role of drought risk management in reducing socio-economic vulnerability of rural farmers (from the perspective of officials and experts) Case study: Soldoz village, West Azerbaijan", Rural Research Quarterly, 2014, 2 (1), p. 22-1. (In Persian)
Rokneddin Eftekhari, Abdul Reza; Mousavi, Seyed Mohammad; Poor Taheri, Mehdi; Farajzadeh Asl, Manouchehr, "Analysis of the role of subsistence diversity in the resilience of rural households in drought conditions Case study: Areas exposed to drought in Isfahan province", Quarterly Journal of Rural Research, 2014, 5 (3), 662-639. (In Persian)
Asgarizadeh, Zahra; Rafieian, Mojtaba; Dadashpour, Hashem, "Study and Analysis of the Experimental Model of Earthquake Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tehran". Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 2016, 4 (15), 39-60. (In Persian)
Majnouni Toutakhane, Ali; Heidari Sarban, Vakil; Mofareh Bonab, Mojtaba, "Study of the effects of drought on Lake Urmia on changes in the resilience of rural settlements." Quarterly Journal of Rural Research and Planning, 1396, 4 (20), 89-67. (In Persian)
Heidari Sarban, Vakil; Majnouni Toutakhane, Ali, "The role of livelihood diversity in the resilience of rural households around Lake Urmia against drought." Quarterly Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, 2016, 3 (4), 70-49. (In Persian)
Alberto, P. A. and A. C. Troutman, 2012, Applied behavior analysis for teachers, Pearson Higher Ed.
Chizari, M, 2013, “Assessment effective factor on kind of wheat farm management in grought situation for Varamin Province,” 3th conference of agricultural extension an education, Iran, 5(8), 107-118.
Goupee, A. J., et al, 2014, "Experimental comparison of three floating wind turbine concepts." Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 136(1), 15-25
Maracchi, G, 2000, Agricultural drought—a practical approach to definition, assessment and mitigation strategies. Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, Springer, pp. 63-75.
Martin, I. M., Bender; H., Raish, C., 2007, what motivates individuals to protect themselves from risks? The case of wildland fires. Risk Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 887-900.
McFarlane, B.L, 2005, Public perceptions of risk to forest biodiversity. Risk Analysis, 23(3), pp. 543-553.
Sjöberg, L., 1999, Riak Perception by the public and by Experts: A Dilemma in Risk Management. Research in Human Ecology.
Slovic, P., 1993, Perceived risk, trust, and democracy. Risk Analysis, 13(4), pp.675-682.
Slovic, P., 2000, the perception of risk. London: Earthscan.
Whitmarsh, L, 2008, "Are flood victims more concerned about climate change than other people? The role of direct experience in risk perception and behavioural response." Journal of Risk Research, 11(3), pp. 351-374.
Yan, J.-B., et al, 2015, "Experimental and analytical study on ultimate strength behavior of steel–concrete–steel sandwich composite beam structures." Materials and Structures, 48(5), pp. 1523-1544.
