ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری مناطق شهری در برابر سیل با منطق فازی (مطالعه موردی: منطقه 22 تهران)
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت محیط زیست
الهام اسماعیلی علویجه
1
(دانشجوی دکتری برنامه ریزی محیط زیست ، دانشگاه تهران. * (مسوول مکاتبات))
سعید کریمی
2
(استادیار دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران.)
فاطمه سادات علوی پور
3
(دانشجوی دکتری برنامه ریزی محیط زیست ، دانشگاه تهران.)
کلید واژه: منطقه 22 تهران, منطق‌فازی, آسیب‌پذیری, سیل,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: به طور کلی در دهه‌های اخیر خسارت‌های ناشی از جاری شدن سیل در نتیجه شهرنشینی در حاشیه رودخانه‌ها همواره متوجه ساکنان این مناطق بوده است. هدف این پژوهش تعیین میزان آسیب‌پذیر بودن مناطق شهری نسبت به خطر سیل جهت کاهش خسارات جانی و مالی می‌باشد. روش بررسی: بدین منظور از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی (AHP فازی) چانگ به دلیل بزرگ تر بودن درجه احتمال جهت وزن‌دهی به معیارهای شیب، خاک، فاصله از رود، زمین شناسی، ارتفاع، کاربری اراضی و جمعیت استفاده گردید. پس از وزن‌دهی، معیارهای آسیب‌پذیری در محیط ARCGIS فازی‌سازی گردیدند و در نهایت از عمل گرهای فازی جهت روی‌هم گذاری لایه‌ها استفاده شد. یافته‌ها:. برای تعدیل نقشه‌های به دست آمده از عمل گرهای ضرب جبری و جمع جبری، از عمل گرهای گاما 9/0، گاما 7/0 و گاما 5/0 استفاده شد که نقشه حاصل از عمل گر گاما 7/0 به دلیل دست یابی به نتیجه مناسب‌تر به عنوان نقشه نهایی آسیب‌پذیری انتخاب گردید. بحث و نتیجه گیری: بنابراین با توجه به نقشه نهایی و این که درصد تراکم جمعیت در شمال شرقی منطقه، نزدیک رودخانه‌کن از 07/1 درصد بیش تر است. احتمال آسیب‌پذیری در آن منطقه بالا پیش‌بینی می‌گردد. هم چنین ممکن است ساخت و سازهای غیر مجاز در حریم رود خانه‌های‌کن و وردآورد باعث تجمع آب و رهاسازی یک‌باره آن در منطقه شود و اگر روند ساخت و سازهای غیر مجاز و افزایش جمعیت در منطقه ادامه یابد می‌توان نتیجه گرفت احتمال آسیب‌پذیری در برابر سیل در منطقه 22 تهران می‌تواند زیاد باشد.
Background and Objective: In general, in recent decades, due to urban lives on the sidelines of rivers, dwellers of these areas have been the subject of damages caused by flood. The goal of this research is determining the vulnerability level of urban areas against flood in order to reducing human and financial losses. Method: For this purpose, Chung fuzzy analysis hierarchical process method (fuzzy AHP) is used due to the higher degree of possibility for weighting criteria of gradient, soil, distance from river, geology, height, land usage, and population. After weighting, the criteria of vulnerability in the environment ARCGIS were fuzzy and ultimately fuzzy operators were used for overlapping layers. Findings: To amend the obtained maps, algebraic multiplication and algebraic addition operators, Gamma 0.9, Gamma 0.7 and Gamma 0.5 operators were used. Obtained map from Gamma 0.7 operator was chosen as the final map of vulnerability for obtaining more appropriate result. Discussion and Conclusion: Therefore, considering the final map, and that the percentage of population density is over 1.07 in the eastern north of the area near Kan river, the possibility of vulnerability is proposed to be high in that area. Also it is possible that unpermitted constructions in Kan and Vardavard River limits will lead to water aggregation and its sudden release in the area, and if the process of unpermitted constructions and population increase is continued in the area, it can be resulted that the possibility of vulnerability against flood may be high in Tehran District 22.
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- Ouma, Y. O., & Tateishi, R. (2014). Urban flood vulnerability and risk mapping using integrated multi-parametric AHP and GIS: Methodological overview and case study assessment. Water, 6(6), 1515-1545.
- Kaźmierczak, A., & Cavan, G. (2011). Surface water flooding risk to urban communities: Analysis of vulnerability, hazard and exposure. Landscape and Urban Planning, 103(2), 185-197.
- Jiang, W., Deng, L., Chen, L., Wu, J., & Li, J. (2009). Risk assessment and validation of flood disaster based on fuzzy mathematics. Progress in Natural Science, 19(10), 1419-1425
- Kubal, C., Haase, D., Meyer, V., &Scheuer, S. (2009). Integrated urban flood risk assessment–adapting a multicriteria approach to a city. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 9(6), 1881-1895.
- Kourgialas, N. N., &Karatzas, G. P. (2011). Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas a case study. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 56(2), 212-225
- Thieken, A. H., Müller, M., Kreibich, H., & Merz, B. (2005). Flood damage and influencing factors: New insights from the August 2002 flood in Germany. Water resources research, 41(12).
- Van der Sande, C. J., De Jong, S. M., & De Roo, A. P. J. (2003). A segmentation and classification approach of IKONOS-2 imagery for land cover mapping to assist flood risk and flood damage assessment. International Journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation, 4(3), 217-229.
- Martinez, J. M., & Le Toan, T. (2007). Mapping of flood dynamics and spatial distribution of vegetation in the Amazon floodplain using multitemporal SAR data. Remote sensing of Environment, 108(3), 209-223.
- Srinivas, V. V., Tripathi, S., Rao, A. R., & Govindaraju, R. S. (2008). Regional flood frequency analysis by combining self-organizing feature map and fuzzy clustering. Journal of Hydrology, 348(1), 148-166.
- Chen, J., Zhao, S., & Wang, H. (2011). Risk analysis of flood disaster based on fuzzy clustering method. Energy Procedia, 5, 1915-1919.
- Qanavati, E., Karam, A., and Agha Alikhani, M., 2012. Flood risk zonation in the farahzad basin (Tehran) using Fuzzy model. Journal of Geography and Environmental Planning. Consecutive 48, No. 4. (In Persian)
- Habibi, Arash, Ezadyar, Sedigheh and Sarafrazi, Azam, Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, First Edition, Katebeh Gil Publications, 2014, pp. 75-73. (In Persian)
- Eastman, J. R. (2012). IDRISI Selva manual. Clark University. Sitio web: www. Clarklabs. org.
- Salehi, E., Rafie, Y., Farzad Behtash, M., and Aqababai, M., 2013. Urban flood risk zoning using GIS and Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Process, Case Study: Tehran. Journal of Environmental Studies. Vol. 39, No. 3.( In Persian)
- Saffari, A., Sasanpour, F., and Musavand, J., 2011. Assessing the vulnerability of urban areas to flood risk using GIS and fuzzy logic, Case study: District 3 of Tehran. Journal of Applied Research Geographical Sciences. Vol. 11, No.20. (In Persian)
- Navard. Elham. Presenting Management Solutions for Waste Separation Plan with Emphasis on Education and Public Participation, A Case Study of District 22 of Tehran Municipality, Master Thesis in Environmental Planning, University of Tehran, Faculty of Environment, 2007, pp. 45-44. (In Persian)
- Asgharpour, Mohammad Javad, Multi-Criteria Decisions, Sixth Edition, University of Tehran Publishers, 2008, page 350. (In Persian)