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کد مقاله : JEST-1705-3646 (R5) بازدید : 165 صفحه: 395 - 407

10.22034/jest.2020.27377.3646

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

بررسی روابط متقابل بین انرژی‌ تجدیدپذیر- توسعه پایدار- انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن در ایران: رویکرد خودرگرسیون برداری بیزین

محورهای موضوعی : توسعه پایدار

داود بهبودی 1 , پرویز محمدزاده 2 , سها موسوی 3

1 - استاد، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی ، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
3 - دکتری، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز.* (مسوول مکاتبات).

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/03/06 تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/09/14 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/02/01

کلید واژه: انرژی تجدیدپذیر, توسعه پایدار, خودرگرسیون برداری بیزین (BVAR), آلاینده دی‌اکسید کربن,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: با توجه به محدود بودن منابع انرژی فسیلی و مشکلات ناشی از انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای، توجه بیش از پیش به انرژی های تجدیدپذیر ضرورت دارد، زیرا از این طریق می توان به اهداف توسعه پایدار دست یافت. بنابراین هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی روابط بین انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، انتشار دی اکسید کربن و توسعه پایدار در ایران و مقایسه با انرژی های تجدید ناپذیر است. روش بررسی: در این تحقیق، روابط متقابل پویا در الگوی توسعه پایدار- انرژی- آلاینده دی اکسید کربن با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری بیزین (BVAR) در ایران طی دوره 1980- 2013 بررسی شده است. شاخص تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP) اغلب برای بیان رشد اقتصادی و توسعه پایدار در مطالعات استفاده می شود، اما این شاخص برای ارزیابی توسعه ناکارآمد است. یکی از مهم ترین شاخص ها برای ارزیابی توسعه پایدار، شاخص پس انداز خالص تعدیل شده (GS) است. برای این منظور، در مطالعه حاضر از این شاخص به عنوان شاخص توسعه پایدار استفاده شده است. یافته ها: نتایج حاکی از آن است که تأثیر ایجاد تکانه مثبت در مصرف انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر بر توسعه پایدار در ایران مثبت است. همچنین، شوک مثبت وارده به مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر و تجدید ناپذیر موجب افزایش انتشار آلاینده دی اکسید کربن (CO2) به میزان متفاوت می شود. به علاوه، اثر رشد شاخص توسعه پایدار بر مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر مثبت و بر مصرف انرژی تجدید ناپذیر منفی است. بحث و نتیجه گیری: پیشنهاد می شود سیاست گذاران ترویج سیاست های متنوع سازی عرضه انرژی به ویژه انرژی های تجدیدپذیر را در اولویت قرار دهند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: Due to the limitation of fossil energy resources and problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential to focus on renewable energy resources, because it can be used to achieve sustainable development goals. Thus, the purpose of this research is to investigate relations among renewable energy, CO2 emissions and sustainable development and compared to non-renewable energy in Iran.  Method: In this study, dynamic interrelationships in the sustainable development-energy- CO2 emissions nexus is examined by applying bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) in Iran over the period 1980-2013. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the indicator commonly used to measure economic growth and sustainable development, but this indicator is inefficient for evaluating development. One of the most prominent alternative indicators for sustainable development is the Index of Genuine Savings (GS). For this purpose, in this study GS is used as an indicator of sustainable development. Findings: Results reveal that the impact of creating positive shock on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on sustainable development in Iran is positive. Also, positive shock on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption causes an increase in CO2 emission. Moreover, the impact of an increase in sustainable development is positive on renewable energy consumption and is negative on non-renewable energy consumption. Discussion and Conclusion: It is suggested that policy makers prioritize the promotion of energy supply diversification policies, especially renewable energy.  

منابع و مأخذ:


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_||_

  1. Baris, K., Kucukali, S., 2012. Availability of renewable energy sources in Turkey: Current situation, potential, government policies and the EU perspective. Energy Policy, vol. 42, pp. 377-391.
    2.
  2. Lotfalipour, M.,  Mahdavi Adeli, M., 2016. Study on the Relationship between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Export Industry in Iran (Analysis Based on Panel Data). Economic Growth and Development Research, Vol. 6(24), pp. 17-38. (In Persian)
    3.
  3. Taklif, A., Mohammadi, T., Bakhtiar, M., 2016. Development of Renewable Energy and it’s Role on the Future of Power Sector in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research, Vol. 7(25), pp. 147-159. (In Persian)
    4.
  4. Omri, E., Chtourou, N., Bazin, D., 2015. Solar thermal energy for sustainable development in Tunisia: The case of the PROSOL project. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 41, pp. 1312-1323.
    5.
  5. Maji, I.K., 2015. Does Clean Energy Contribute to Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria. Energy Reports, vol. 1, pp. 145–150.
    6.
  6. Elahi, SH., Gharibi, J., Majidpoor, M., Anvari, A., 2015. The Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technologies: Grounded Theory Approach. Innovation Management, vol. 4(2), pp. 33-56. (In Persian)
    7.
  7. Mezghani, I., Haddad, H. B., 2016. Energy consumption and economic growth: An empirical study of the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 75, pp. 145-156.
    8.
  8. Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., 2012. Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-growth nexus: evidence from apanel error correction model, Energy Economics, vol. 34, pp. 733-738.
    9.
  9. Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., Filis, G., 2017. Energy consumption, CO2 emmissions and economic growth: An ethical dilemma. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 68, pp. 808-824.
    10.
  10. Gaspar, J., Marques, A. C., Fuinhas, J. A., 2017. The traditional energy-growth nexus: A comparison between sustainable development and economic growth approaches, Ecological Indicators, vol. 75, pp. 286-296.
    11.
  11. Belaid, F., Yussef, M., 2017. Environmental degradation, renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption, and economic growth: Assessing the evidence from Algeria. Energy Policy, vol. 102, pp. 277-287.
    12.
  12. Amri, F., 2016. The relationship amongst energy consumption, foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 64, pp. 694-702.
    13.
  13. Cowan, WN., Chang, T., Inglesi-Lotz, R., Gupta, R., 2014. The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries. Energy Policy, vol. 66, pp. 359-68.
    14.
  14. Sebri, M., Ben-Salha, O., 2014. On the causal dynamics between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO 2 emissions and trade openness: fresh evidence from BRICS countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 39, pp. 14-23.
    15.
  15. You, J., 2011. China’s energy consumption and sustainable development: Comparative evidence from GDP and genuine savings. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 15, pp. 2984-2989.
    16.
  16. Fetros, M., Aghazadeh, A., Jabraili, S., 2012. Study on the Relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy on Economic Growth in developing countries. Energy Economics Review, vol. 9(32), pp. 51-72. (In Persian)
    17.
  17. Li, G., Fang, C., 2014. Global mapping and estimation of ecosystem services values and gross domestic product: A spatially explicit integration of national ‘green GDP’accounting. Ecological Indicators, vol. 46, pp. 293-314.
    18.
  18. World Bank.,, 2015. World Development Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi.
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  19. World Bank., 2006. Development Economics Dept. Development Data Group, & World Bank. http:www.siteresources.worldbank.org/ESSDNETWORK/Resources/LGDB2006.pdf.
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  20. Sahebhonar, H., Nadri, K., 2014. The Economic Analysis of the Oil Revenues Increase Impact on Income Distribution with a BVAR Approach: Case Study of Iran. Iranian Energy Economics, vol. 3(9), pp. 115-149. (In Persian)
    21.
  21. Koop, G., Korobilis, D., 2010. Bayesian multivariate time series methods foe empirical macroeconomics. Manuscript available at http://personal.strath.ac.uk/ gary.koop/.
    22.
  22. Selover, D., Round, D., 1996. Business cycle transmission and interdependance between Japan and Australia. Journal of Asian Economics Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pp. 562-602.
    23.
  23. Lange, K., 2010. Advanced Optimization Topics. Numerical Analysis for Statisticians. Springer New York, pp. 297-332.
    24.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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